How to Manage a Party Brand: Empirical Perspectives on Electoral Probability and Internal Conflict

What happens when political party branding is modeled according to the preferences of either voters or party members? Employing the concept of brand identity and the analytical GAP model, this empirical study details the consequences of brand management decisions by political parties using the example of the two biggest parties in Germany. Strategic branding decisions have an impact not only on voting probabilities but also on their internal conflict potential, such as when a branding decision conflicts with the internal image a party maintains among its members. It thus can be highly beneficial for a political party to encourage its members to communicate their image of the party to other voters.     

“垄断福利”的负面效应与治理路向

"垄断福利"本质上也是一种腐败。"垄断福利"现象的滋生、蔓延与扩散,造成了系列的负面效应,扭曲了资源的合理配置,影响了社会的公平正义,加剧了社会的矛盾集聚,阻碍了和谐社会的进程。要彻底遏制和消除"垄断福利"腐败,必须从根源上找寻破解之道,治理必须从垄断本身切入,标本兼治,强化监督,注重长效。一是追本溯源,深入探析"垄断福利"的滋生机理;二是引入竞争,彻底铲除"垄断福利"的生存土壤;三是多管齐下,全面建构"垄断福利"的监管机制。     

公益性事业单位专业技术岗位设置与管理——以公共图书馆为例

公益性事业单位专业技术岗位设置应将岗位总量及岗位间比例控制在核定编制内,岗位结构科学合理、精简高效,岗位职责、权利和义务相一致。专业技术岗位设置的步骤为岗位调查、岗位分析评价、确定岗位任职条件、制定岗位设置与实施方案、编制岗位说明书、岗位聘用及岗位认定。完善的激励机制是岗位管理的基础,有效的竞争机制是岗位管理的核心,科学的评价机制是岗位管理的关键。只有在科学设置专业技术岗位的基础上,转换专业技术岗位的管理机制,才能营造公正、和谐、规范的用人"软环境",这是破解公益性事业单位人力资源"整合"难题的唯一出路。     

山羊痘病毒的鉴定及序列分析

以华中地区某山羊场疑似山羊痘病料为对象,进行了本动物病例复制、透射电镜观察、病理切片HE染色、特异性目的基因扩增和序列测定及遗传进化关系分析。结果,复制了山羊痘本动物模型,观察到山羊痘病毒(GTPV)样粒子,切片HE染色可见有炎性细胞浸润,病料中扩增到P32基因;序列测定及遗传分析表明,该病毒为山羊痘病毒(ZL/HB/HN),与2008年分离于印度的山羊痘毒株(FJ748488)的遗传关系最近,与中国山羊痘疫苗株(AY881707)及1978年分离于印度的山羊毒株(AY382869)同属一个进化分支。     

Crisis intervention team officer dispatch, assessment, and disposition: Interactions with individuals with severe mental illness

The Crisis Intervention Team (CIT) model is a specialized police response program for people in a mental illness crisis. We analyzed 2174 CIT officers' reports from one community, which were completed during a five year period. These officers' reports described interactions with people presumed to be in a mental illness crisis. We used hierarchical logistic and multinomial regression analyses to compare transport to treatment to either transport to jail or no transport by how the calls were dispatched. The results revealed that both dispatch codes and officers' on-scene assessments influenced transport decisions. Specifically, calls dispatched as suspected suicide were more likely to be transported to treatment than calls dispatched as mental disturbance. Furthermore, calls dispatched as calls for assistance, disturbance, suspicious person, assault, suspicion of a crime, and to meet a citizen were all less likely than mental disturbance calls to result in transportation to treatment. Officer assessments of the use of substances, being off medications, signs and symptoms of mental or physical illness, and violence to self or others were associated with the likelihood of being transported to treatment. These results build on previous work that demonstrated differences in transport decisions between CIT trained and non-CIT trained officers.     

创新企业融资模式助推吉林经济发展

资金是企业发展的血液,要振兴经济,就必须提供资金支持,建立良好的融资体系。本文认为,目前吉林省的融资模式仍存在着融资模式单一,上存资金多,直接融资比重低等问题。因此,政府、金融机构和企业自身要共同努力,积极采取措施,创新融资模式,拓宽融资渠道,以推动吉林经济的全面发展。     

黑格尔的市民社会理论

市民社会理论是黑格尔政治哲学的重要组成部分,黑格尔对市民社会的理解开辟了市民社会学说史上的新视域。同时,黑格尔对市民社会也有深入的批判,他认为市民社会是一个不自足的领域,有着自身无法克服的缺点,必然被国家所克服。     

Anatomy of a Scottish Revolution: The Potential of Postnationalist Scotland and the Future of the United Kingdom

Scottish politics isn't about some remote northern politics but go to the heart of the nature, character and power dimensions of the UK and British state. Scotland has been dramatically changed by the scale of the SNP landslide victory in the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections. Scottish society, identity and culture along with the politics of unionism and nationalism have all changed and will change further. The old fashioned politics of devolution are dead, but what comes next and what are the consequences for Scottish independence? What has to be challenged are old‐fashioned out‐of‐date views of the SNP, and the unreconstructed nationalism of the British state.     

Is the Democratic Party’s superdelegate system unfair to voters?

Among the reasons for the historic nature of the 2008 Democratic primary race was the attention paid to the “superdelegates”. The competitiveness of the primary and the important role the superdelegates played has led to calls for reform. This paper develops a formal model that explains why superdelegates selected one candidate over the other and why some superdelegates committed early in the primary season while others waited. Hypotheses are tested using an original dataset collected during the 2008 Democratic primary. The results suggest that although some superdelegates made their decision based on personal, idiosyncratic factors, for many superdelegates, Democratic voters played the most important role in their commitment process.     

From polls to votes to seats: Forecasting the 2010 British general election

This paper outlines and discusses techniques for three stages in forecasting parliamentary seats from British opinion polls: adjusting and aggregating published vote-intention figures from across different polls; forecasting how public opinion might change before election day; and predicting the seat totals from the forecasted election-day vote shares. Specifically, we consider a state-space model for opinion polls which correct for house effects and other sources of survey error, the estimation of the historical relationship between polls and the election-day share of the vote, and a probabilistic approach to predicting the winner in each constituency.