2030年全球战略预测

未来20年世界发展演进中将不会出现过往20年间较为典型的剧变和震荡。美国将在创新、金融和军事领域保持全球领导者的地位。中国地位的加强将最大程度地影响到全球权力均衡。以市场经济和民主为基础的全球化意识形态将维持其世界主导思想体系的地位。意识形态将更频繁地与全球的政治、社会经济和文化发展趋势相关联。这将成为未来全球治理意识形态的基础。在2030年前,世界文化体系以及各种文化内核发生大规模变化的可能性极小,同时很难形成创新文化和生产文化占主导地位的全球文化。全球治理的机制和原则将继续形成。世界经济发展的主要动力为创新和全球化。全球化在未来20年将继续推动世界经济的增长。但在预测期的前半段,将始终可以感觉到世界金融经济危机的影响。限制增长的主要因素来自于新的世界经济金融危机以及保护主义的抬头。2011-2030年,世界经济年均增速将达到4.0%到4.5%。中国接近中等发达国家水平并拥有较高的社会经济发展速度是2030年前的主要变化。发达国家和发展中国家的传统划分将发生改变。增长质量和竞争力标准将决定一国在世界经济版图中的地位。中国在GDP规模上至少会接近美国的水平,但GDP中的创新成分及其他质量型的成分方面仍将落后于...     

“万国公法”译词研究——兼论19世纪中日两国继受西方国际法理念上的差异

国际法是最早正式引入近代中国的西方法律部门,其标志性事件是1864年美国传教士丁韪良对《万国公法》的翻译。在继受西方国际法后,国际法在晚清中国多被称为＂万国公法＂,这一概念的形成与丁韪良的主观意向紧密相连。＂万国公法＂四字含有自然法学意涵,但却与19世纪弱肉强食的世界格局不符。因此,将国际法称作＂万国公法＂,在一定程度上对晚清国人的国际法认识产生了误导作用。直至20世纪初年,伴随着世局的进一步恶化以及国人更清醒的认识,留日学生此时从日语中借用的＂国际法＂三字才取代了＂万国公法＂这一称谓。     

卢布国际化战略评析——兼论中俄贸易本币结算

货币国际化是一种货币在国际贸易和资本流动中行使交易媒介、价值尺度和贮藏手段等职能的过程。货币国际化对货币发行国的利益是多方面的。卢布国际化是近年来俄罗斯对外战略的重要组成部分。俄罗斯为实现卢布国际化采取了许多积极措施。目前,卢布在独联体国家贸易中的使用量较大。而中俄贸易的本币结算则走过了从试行到推广的进程。由于俄罗斯经济结构失衡,经济发展存在许多制约因素,卢布尚难以在国际贸易中成为强势货币,也难以成为储备货币,卢布国际化前景存在着不确定性。     

Trade,peace-building and hybrid governance in the Sudan-South Sudan borderlands

ABSTRACT

Trade and markets in weak states are often discussed in relation with violence, security and peace-building. A case in point are marketplaces in the Sudan-South Sudan borderlands where communities separated by insecurity and hostility meet, not only to trade but also to negotiate and exchange information. This does not imply that establishment of such markets automatically results in peace and stability. Based on new empirical research on the Amieth market in Abyei – an area contested by the two Sudans – I argue that such markets rely on security guarantees negotiated between a set of heterogenous societal groups and that the overall impact of such border markets is largely determined within a context of hybrid security governance. The conclusion emphasises that without a proper analysis of this context, external assistance to such borderland markets might just as well enable violent conflict actors as being a tool for peace-building.     

16-17世纪的日欧贸易与世界航海业之发展

16-17世纪,欧洲商船开赴世界各地,开展贸易活动。在世界最东方的日本,欧洲人除了交易各类商货,获取巨额利润,还积累了东方航线的经验。通过日欧贸易的开展,东西方航海、制图及造船术也得到交流,获得发展,世界贸易圈、全球航线也逐步形成。     

中国-东盟自贸区全面实施以来中马贸易的进展与展望

2010年1月1日中国-东盟自贸区开始全面实施，中马双边贸易再次迎来了新一轮快速平稳发展的机遇。本文拟以相关统计数据资料为依据，对中国-东盟自贸区全面实施以来中马贸易的进展、存在的问题进行考察和分析，进而展望中马双边贸易发展的前景。     

国际贸易法治的危机及克服路径

当前国际贸易法治面临第二次世界大战以来空前之危机。此次危机具有深刻而复杂的国际背景及现实根源,但从国际贸易发展历史来看,贸易自由化与贸易保护主义的博弈从未消失,向来是国际贸易法发展中的永恒主题。当前国际贸易法治危机的根源依然是保护主义的幽灵作祟。今天的保护主义与历史上的保护主义并无本质上的区别,无非是添加了时代的特点和因素。法治的危机仍然需要法治的方式予以克服,当前国际贸易危机的本质说到底是国际贸易法治发展的不完善、不充分导致的,只有以法治的思维、法治的方法才能找到克服当前国际贸易危机的正确路径。     

扩大中阿经贸合作领域的新起点

中阿经贸论坛作为宁夏实施内陆开放战略的突破口和重要着力点,掀开了宁夏历史上举办国际性常设论坛与会展的崭新一页。作为中阿经贸论坛永久举办地,宁夏将更高频率地进入世界的视野,更深层次地融入世界的发展,有利于充分利用"两个市场、两种资源",推动宁夏在新的起点上、更广阔的空间里、更大的平台上,更广泛地参与国际国内经贸交流合作。     

Targeted Sanctions in a World of Global Finance

This is the golden age of economic statecraft—and the study of economic statecraft. This is in large part due to the evolution of economic coercion from trade embargoes to targeted financial sanctions. Targeted financial sanctions are attractive because they can generate economic costs similar to those of more comprehensive sanctions, with fewer negative externalities. Over time, however, the intersection of economic sanctions with globalized capital markets will provoke three interesting research questions. First, do financial sanctions spare a target country’s population from negative humanitarian and human rights outcomes? Second, to what extent are financial sanctions an exercise in learning by both targets and senders? Third, will the United States’ use of financial sanctions trigger blowback against US primacy in the international financial system? These last two questions offer the prospect to linking research on economic statecraft with larger questions of international security and global political economy.     

Australia and the Developing World under the Abbott Coalition Government

The Abbott Coalition government, elected to office in Australia in September 2013, has not had a major focus on the developing world. Nevertheless, in terms of substance this government has been engaged with a number of issues that relate to, or have implications for, the developing world. At a general level these issues concern development cooperation, refugees and asylum seekers, and climate change. At a regional level Australia has had particular concerns relating to Indonesia and the Pacific island countries; there has also been some focus on India and Indian Ocean regionalism. Beyond Australia’s immediate region there has been engagement in some issues relating to Southwest Asia and the Middle East, and Africa. The government’s approach to issues concerning the developing world reflects its pragmatism based on a perception of Australian interests and an identification with the countries of the developed world as led by the United States.