Simplicity and Spook: Terrorism and the Dynamics of Threat Exaggeration

It has been common, at least since 1945, to exaggerate and to overreact to foreign threats, something that seems to be continuing with current concerns over international terrorism. This paper sketches threat exaggeration during the Cold War and applies the experience from that era to the current one. Alarmism and overreaction can be harmful, particularly economically. And, in the case of terrorism, it can help create the damaging consequences the terrorists seek but are unable to perpetrate on their own. Moreover, many of the forms alarmism has taken verge on hysteria. The United States is hardly "vulnerable" in the sense that it can be toppled by dramatic acts of terrorist destruction, even extreme ones. The country can, however grimly, readily absorb that kind of damage, and it has outlasted considerably more potent threats in the past.     

A Theory Matrix for Mediators

The author uses a behavioral perspective to survey theory that may be useful in mediation. He notes the lack of diffusion of knowledge of theory among practitioners and argues that mediators should pay more explicit attention to theory. He presents a matrix comprising the behavioral factors of perception, emotion, cognition, communication, and intervention at the micro, meso, and macro levels of conflict and uses this matrix to organize and review some mediation theories. Several types of intervention theory are identified: integrated, generic, dialectical, developmental, and dialogical. The article closes by posing some outstanding theoretical issues and questioning whether current mediator training programs are adequate to bridge the gap between theory and practice.     

Perceptions of global inequality: a call for research

In light of media attention to and growing public awareness of the globalizing economy, a case for the expanded empirical investigation of public perceptions of international income distribution and inequality is presented. Theoretical issues to be illuminated by such studies are considered; exploratory qualitative data are provided to illustrate the rich potential of such research; and a variety of issues that must be addressed when conducting future research in this area are reviewed.     

西部大学生对气候变化的感知初探——以宝鸡文理学院为例

为初步探究西部高等院校学生对气候变化的感知和行动意愿,对宝鸡文理学院600名学生采取随机抽样的调查方法进行调查。调查内容包括被调查者的基本情况、被调查者对气候变化的了解程度以及在了解的基础上改善自身行为的意愿等三方面。结果显示,对气候变化情况了解很多和有一定了解的大学生分别占16%和25%。大学生对气候变化普遍担心(96%)和悲观(72%),但有99.8%的大学生愿意积极应对气候变化。建议政府、学校能更多地宣传气候变化知识,并开展能让大学生参与的活动。     

言语角色认知与警察言语交际

言语角色认知在警察言语交际活动中具有重要意义 ,是警察履行服务群众、管理社会、打击犯罪职能的基本保证。警察言语角色认知包括警察自我言语角色认知、警察交际对象言语角色认知、警察与交际对象言语角色关系认知。     

梅影掩映窗前月——谈散文语言的形象性

文学是语言的艺术。散文作品需要描摹形象,创设意境,需要议论抒情,而这些应靠形象化的语言来传达。形象性的散文语言会增强作品的弹性与亮度,会拓展阅读者的想象空间,从而增强作品的感染力。作家在写作中经常运用比喻夸张通感等修辞手法,使描写的事物、表现的思想情感形象化。     

Intimate Partner Violence Victims’ Accuracy in Assessing their Risk of Re-abuse

Using four categories of accuracy (true positive, false positive, true negative, false negative), this study explored (1) how accurately intimate partner violence (IPV) victims are able to assess their risk of re-abuse; and (2) potential predictors of accuracy. Women seeking help for IPV (N = 246) rated the likelihood that they would experience physical re-abuse in the coming year and then reported 18 months later whether those risks had been realized. Victim assessments were more likely to be right than wrong, and were subject to neither a pessimistic nor optimistic bias. In the multivariate analysis, significant/marginally significant predictors of the accuracy categories were the history of violence from this and former partners, level of substance use, PTSD symptoms, and the recency of the violence. Among the more robust findings were the connection between level of stalking and true positives, and between substance use and false negatives. This study suggests that victim assessments have significant potential to inform practice, and deserve further exploration.

Theory and racial profiling: Shortcomings and future directions in research

The volatile political environment that surrounds the issue of “racial profiling” has led local and state police agencies across the nation to start collecting information about traffic and pedestrian stops. The controversy over this issue is overwhelmed by the unsupported assumption that all race-based decision making by police officers is motivated by individual police officers' racial prejudice. This article reviews recently published studies on racial profiling and critiques both their methods and conclusions. Using the conceptual framework for police research presented by Bernard and Engel, it reviews a number of theories that may explain racial disparities in the rates of police stops. The authors argue that to explain police behavior better, theoretical models must guide future data collection efforts.     

Breaking Barricades

正The current state of Sino-Japanese relations is strikingly worrisome.Particularly in the past year,conflicts have deepened between the two on issues concerning historical perception,territorial sovereignty and security.In a speech at a meeting of the 21st Century Committee for China-Japan Friendship,recently held in Nagasaki,Japan,Zhou Mingwei,a committee member,shared his thoughts on current Sino-Japanese relations.Excerpts as follows     

Estimating parties' left-right positions: Determinants of voters' perceptions' proximity to party ideology

The article aims to explore whether the accuracy of voters' perceptions of party ideology are affected by party position shifts and by the media's turn to non-left-right issues, such as political leadership, during election campaigns. Using data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) and a country-specific left-right index based on data by the Comparative Manifestos Project (CMP), multilevel analyses reveal that emphasizing leadership issues can lead voters to reflect left-right positions more accurately. A party's left-right position shift between elections does not lead to a significant difference in voters' perceptions, while a shift on the economic sub-dimension of left-right ideology can even lead voters to more position clarity. However, multiple parties' shifting their positions seems to overburden respondents' cognitive capacity.