Why is the European Left Losing Elections?The Political Quarterly Annual Lecture

The argument of this lecture speaks directly to the history of The Political Quarterly and the London School of Economics. It is that the European left is losing elections on an unprecedented scale because it has lost control of the political agenda to a newly flexible right; but it is also losing key arguments about how to nurture human values in today's connected and competitive global village because it has not responded to changes in economy and society; and that to turn things round it needs to address both its deficit in ideas and organisation.     

Anatomy of a Scottish Revolution: The Potential of Postnationalist Scotland and the Future of the United Kingdom

Scottish politics isn't about some remote northern politics but go to the heart of the nature, character and power dimensions of the UK and British state. Scotland has been dramatically changed by the scale of the SNP landslide victory in the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections. Scottish society, identity and culture along with the politics of unionism and nationalism have all changed and will change further. The old fashioned politics of devolution are dead, but what comes next and what are the consequences for Scottish independence? What has to be challenged are old‐fashioned out‐of‐date views of the SNP, and the unreconstructed nationalism of the British state.     

The Lion and the Eunuch: National Identity and the British Genius

The Lion and the Eunuch challenges the failures of British politicians to adequately understand the complexities, and the subtleties, of British national identity, and goes on to define it for them. It also explains reasons for our current confusions over who we are in the world. In 1940 Orwell wrote The Lion and the Unicorn as a rallying cry for a richly identifying country that was still able to imagine itself, and re‐imagine itself, as the need arose. This essay suggests that without a radical change of government policy and thought, that power will continue to decline with far reaching consequences for the peoples of these islands.     

Candidate positioning in Britain

Policy positioning has received a great deal of attention from scholars of British politics. While numerous studies emphasize the positions taken by the Labour and Conservative parties, and how the positions of these parties have shaped citizens’ electoral behavior, few studies explore policy positioning at the candidate-level. We conduct the first quantitative study that examines the relative policy positions of British candidates during a general election. Building on findings from the study of American elections, we argue that two factors explain variation in candidate positioning in Britain: constituency-level electoral competition and a disparity in candidate quality. Using data from the 2001 British Representation Study, we find evidence that both factors are associated with a decrease in the policy contrast between candidates. Our findings suggest that, despite the differences in party control, similar factors affect candidate positioning in both Great Britain and the United States.     

From polls to votes to seats: Forecasting the 2010 British general election

This paper outlines and discusses techniques for three stages in forecasting parliamentary seats from British opinion polls: adjusting and aggregating published vote-intention figures from across different polls; forecasting how public opinion might change before election day; and predicting the seat totals from the forecasted election-day vote shares. Specifically, we consider a state-space model for opinion polls which correct for house effects and other sources of survey error, the estimation of the historical relationship between polls and the election-day share of the vote, and a probabilistic approach to predicting the winner in each constituency.     

浅析政府在改善族群关系中的作用与角色——以北爱尔兰问题为例

族群关系的妥善处理几乎是所有多民族国家都面临的难题。北爱尔兰新教徒与天主教徒两大教派族群间的矛盾是造成北爱冲突的重要原因,而这与英国政府族群关系政策失当有很大关系。为解决北爱尔兰问题,英国政府通过改善族群间关系,促进了北爱社会内部的逐步和解,从而推动了北爱兰和平的实现。     

社会性别视角下农村留守儿童教育支持调查分析——以山东省农村为例

2009—2010年围绕农村留守儿童教育支持问题,对山东省农村留守儿童及家长进行的调查发现：在显性的教育资源分配等方面,留守儿童教育没有明显的性别差异,但男女不平等意识还存在;在一些隐性的教育支持方面还有一些性别不同等的对待。由于受重男轻女等思想观念的影响,留守女童的教育还应得到家庭、学校和社会更多的关注。     

Does It Matter If the House of Lords isn't Reformed? Perspectives from a Symposium at Trinity Hall,Cambridge

In May 2011 the Coalition government published a draft bill for reform of the House of Lords, proposing an upper chamber composed of 80% elected and 20% appointed members serving for single 15‐year terms. These plans reflect aspects of the stated positions of the main political parties, votes in the House of Commons, and broader political and scholarly debates over the past decade. Nevertheless, there is significant opposition from across the political spectrum, and there is a significant possibility that the proposed reforms will not be enacted before the next general election. This article draws on the views of participants (including three current peers) in a Symposium at Trinity Hall, Cambridge to argue that the likely failure of the reforms may be less disastrous than many suppose. Especially since the 1999 reforms, the House of Lords is in many ways a more active and legitimate chamber than is commonly realised.     

The paths to citizenship: a critical examination of immigration policy in Britain since 2001

ABSTRACT

McGhee explores the Labour government's attempts to manage the challenges and protect against the ‘risks’ associated with a particular group of migrants to Britain: permanent immigrants. He examines how Gordon Brown conceives of his three-stage proposals for ‘earned’ British citizenship working with the wider managed migration strategy introduced by Tony Blair and Charles Clarke. At the same time, McGhee contextualizes the earned British citizenship proposals within the recent immigration policies and citizenship/integration strategies introduced by David Blunkett when Home Secretary. If the episodes of social disorder involving the second generation of settled immigrant communities in Oldham, Burnley and Bradford in the summer of 2001 were the events that triggered Blunkett's new integration/citizenship strategies, including the introduction of English classes and citizenship lessons for would-be citizens, then the 7/7 attacks by so-called ‘home-grown’ extremists were the events that influenced the emergence of what will be described here as the institutional racialization associated with Brown's recommendations. McGhee also explores the shift from Blunkett's model of civic assimilation, with its Cantle-esque emphasis on participation, to the Brown model of civic nationalism, with its post-7/7-fuelled emphasis on loyalty, shared values and responsibilities.     

Contested Discourse,Contested Power: Nationalism and the Left in Paraguay

Nationalism has been a key, but generally overlooked, component of twentieth‐century Paraguayan politics and an important explanatory factor in the country’s political outcomes. Indeed, it has been central to the struggle for political power, most significantly to the continuing hegemony of the Colorado Party. This article traces the development of the Paraguayan Left, highlighting its structural and functional weaknesses, and analyses its relationship with nationalism, in particular with the dominant Colorado nationalist discourse. It argues that an important failure of the Left – and indeed other political parties and movements – has been its inability to produce a successful challenge to this hegemonic discourse.