独裁政体何以会促进经济的快速增长--李光耀命题的理论论证与实践检验

根据著名经济学家阿马蒂亚·森的概括,李光耀命题断定:自由和民主权利阻碍经济增长和发展.理论分析表明,李光耀命题是一个能够自圆其说和具有经济学依据的命题,并被新加坡的成功经验所证实.但对缅甸案例的分析表明,李光耀命题也是一个具有严格假定条件的命题.命题成立的条件性提醒我们追问:独裁政府在决定限制人们的自由和权利时是否有严格的制度,像新加坡那样,以保证其英明.     

从外交部解密档案看中缅关系中的华侨问题

中缅建交后,受地缘因素影响,缅甸一直担心中国危及其国家安全,中国则力图将缅甸作为突破西方战略包围的突破口。20世纪50年代中缅关系中的华侨问题即是在这一大框架下演变发展的。1954年周恩来访缅后,双边关系发展迅速。随后,中方为消除缅方在华侨问题上的疑虑,在华侨国籍问题、华侨政治、经济作用、与缅人关系问题上进行了一系列努力,使华侨问题没有成为制约当时双边关系发展的障碍。     

缅甸日据时期“缅克冲突”探析

缅甸日据时期,缅族、克伦族发生多次冲突,其原因除缅族、克伦族历史传统因素外,还有历史上英国"分而治之"政策留下的"后遗症",以及日本侵略者出于自身利益的推波助澜。两族在冲突解决上也截然不一。克伦族对冲突采取"暴力对抗"与"和平谈判"两种不同的解决方式,分别导致了大相径庭的结果。缅族领导对冲突处理不够细致、深入,为建国初期克伦族叛乱埋下了伏笔。     

Beijing and the Myanmar problem

Abstract

The re-emergence of China as a major economic and political power has drawn attention to the role it might play in solving regional problems. Prominent among many Asian issues on Beijing's agenda is its southwestern neighbour, Myanmar, and in particular the military machine that has long ruled the country with an iron fist. The junta in place today is both acknowledged as problematic by policymakers in Beijing, and seen by the wider world as a regional challenge on which China should take the lead. However, there is little agreement on ways forward. To determine how Beijing might handle the Myanmar problem, this article first examines the concept of intervention, reviewing the manifold modes found in the contemporary world and drawing up a typology. Then it surveys arguments about intervention, focusing on perspectives that are relevant in this context. Next it presents arguments about intervention in Myanmar, and follows up by looking in some detail at China's current low-level engagement. Finally it considers where Beijing might go from here in dealing with Myanmar. The argument pulled together in the conclusion is that while nobody has a full solution to the Myanmar problem, a case for enhancement of China's role can be grounded not only in its global obligations, but also in precepts found deep in its national tradition. It is here that efforts to boost Beijing's engagement should be directed.     

马帮、商铺与移民:贡榜王朝时期缅甸阿摩罗补罗的华商群体

阿摩罗补罗是缅甸贡榜王朝时期的国都,也是当时滇缅贸易中华商前往经商的重要目的地。在滇缅贸易的发展过程中,部分华商开始寓居阿摩罗补罗,并与缅族发生通婚,形成华人社区。在阿摩罗补罗从事贸易的华商可分作"行商"与"坐商",前者为常年往返于滇缅的马帮商队,后者在缅定居并有固定经营场所。两者在贸易中保持密切合作,"行商"使"坐商"与中国保持人口和商品的流动;"坐商"则掌握了销售渠道,使"行商"所携商品能够行销当地市场。在贸易活动的影响下,华商在当地逐渐形成了独有的社会组织和生活方式。     

“孟中印缅”地区合作机制：推动因素与制约因素

"孟中印缅论坛"已走过五年的探索历程,现已开始步入实质性阶段.随着相关国家经贸合作水平的提高和对区域机制建设的共识日益增强,该机制已逐渐由学术主导的"二轨"层面向政府决策和可行性操作的"一轨"层面靠拢.中国云南在其中发挥着重要的作用,中国与孟加拉国的经贸和通道建设合作为该机制提供了动力,印度的该地区跨国经济合作的认知也在发生积极的转变,并且该机制业已同其它地区、次区域经济合作产生互动关联.尽管如此,该机制的运作和深化仍面对某些不可忽视的挑战.     

Signs of life in Myanmar’s nationwide ceasefire agreement? Finding a way forward

This article focuses on peace-building efforts in Myanmar implemented under the Nation Wide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) in 2013. It assesses the ways in which the recently elected government led by the National League for Democracy (NLD) has dealt with the NCA, and highlights opportunities and challenges. I argue that while the NLD government and Myanmar military remain crucial to the success of peace efforts, implementation of the NCA is impossible without the support of the eight current NCA signatories, in particularly the Karen National Union (KNU). Neglecting the importance of these actors not only provides an incomplete picture of ongoing peace-building efforts, but could also undermine efforts to promote national reconciliation that have thus far focused exclusively on the Myanmar government and the military. These signs of life emanating from the NCA signatories, however, have increasingly been undermined by an official failure to implement the agreement and to adhere to the agreed process and by ongoing hostilities between the military and four of the country’s ethnic armed groups.     

The Assyrians

This article deals with a largely unknown British officer of the Indian Army, who served between 1900 and 1928 in India, Tibet, Burma, north-western Persia and Waziristan. It focuses on his unpublished diary from the British military expedition to Tibet in 1903-04, to which the present author has gained access. The written legacy of Harvey-Kelly includes a report on north-western Persia, various correspondence and five photo albums.     

Myanmar's Electoral System: Reviewing the 2010 and 2012 Elections and Looking Ahead to the 2015 General Elections

Myanmar's 2010 multi-party election was the nation's first in two decades, signaling a manufactured transition from nearly half a century of military dictatorship toward parliamentary democracy. The current single-member district, plurality voting electoral system limits the parliamentary representation of smaller, ethnic political parties, and inflates the influence of larger, enfranchised parties, jeopardizing peaceful national reconciliation between various factions and the country's inchoate democratic institutions. Myanmar's Union Electoral Commission should consider electoral reforms that: (a) maximize proportional representation; (b) guarantee peace and political stability; and (c) guarantee a sufficient parliamentary majority that can govern the nascent democracy. The ideal system for the upcoming 2015 general elections is a Mixed-Member Proportional (MMP) one, with one parliamentary house electing ministers by plurality in regional districts and the other with proportional representation by party list. This paper considers alternative electoral systems in light of the status quo and argues that MMP would produce the most stable and representative results for all parties concerned.     

Stateness problems or regime unification? Explaining obstacles to democratization in Burma/Myanmar

The fact that Myanmar is not democratic is too often taken as a given in international policy discourse without analysis as to why it has not democratized or what conditions might allow for democratization. Plausible theories to explain Burma's authoritarian politics include poor levels of economic development, colonial history, regional geopolitical factors, problems of state formation and the unification of the military. Determining which theories have the most explanatory power is important because different understandings of Burma's authoritarianism steer one toward some remedies and away from others. In this paper, I argue that problems of state formation – ‘stateness’ in one strand of the democratization literature – and ‘regime unification’ theories stand the best chance of explaining the lack of democracy in Myanmar. I examine the logic and evidence for each theory and conclude that while both explain some of the status quo, ‘stateness’ had more explanatory power before 1988 but in post-1988 Myanmar, ‘regime unification’ explains more.