Strategy and Selection in International Relations

It is widely recognized that many of the samples we use for statistical analysis in international politics are the result of some selection process. Not surprisingly, selection models are becoming increasingly popular. At the same time, the role of strategic interaction has begun to play a more important role in statistical analyses. However, it has not been clear how statistical strategic models and selection models relate to each other, or what the effects are of employing one when the other is the more appropriate model. In this article, I 1) clarify why international relations scholars cannot shield themselves from selection bias simply by assuming their results are limited to a given sample; 2) show how recent statistical strategic models relate to traditional selection models and generalize the two sets of models by deriving a correlated strategic model; and 3) examine the effects of misspecifying either correlated errors or strategic interaction. My results indicate that failure to model the strategic interaction produces worse specification error than failure to account for correlated disturbances. In fact, traditional bivariate probit models appear to be superior only when states are almost completely uncertain about each others' preferences.     

国际政治视角下的中阿博览会

进入新世纪以来,我国在外交领域积极推行全方位外交,努力发展同阿拉伯国家的关系。中阿经贸论坛于2013年9月正式升格为中阿博览会,成为中阿关系史上又一具有里程碑意义的重大事件。中阿博览会在推动中阿经济发展的同时,也为稳定和发展中阿关系提供了更高层次的互动机制,具有重大的国际政治意义。     

Explaining Taiwan's policies in the South China Sea, 1988–99

The current paper discusses Taiwan's policies in the South China Sea during the period 1988–99. These policies are discussed with reference to ‘realist’ and ‘non-realist’ theoretical approaches. The realist position regards Taiwan's South China Sea policies as an outcome of its relations with the People's Republic of China and the Southeast Asian countries. These policies are fashioned and implemented in a coherent way by a unitary state. Two ‘non-realist’ positions are identified. One focuses on influences from domestic political parties and party factions, bureaucratic segments and economic interests. The other emphasizes the impact of transnational alliances, mainly through oil business lobby groups allied with mainland Chinese partners. The investigation sustains much of the realist argument. It is, however, argued that party politics and bureaucratic infighting has had an independent effect on Taiwan's South China Sea policies, while the impact of oil business interests has been limited.     

Rethinking the New ENP: A Vision for an Enhanced European Role in the Arab Revolutions

This article assesses European responses to the Arab uprisings and, in particular, the introduced change in the European Union policy toward its southern neighborhood. The presented analyses provide a profound scrutiny and assessment of the new version of the European Neighbourhood Policy, empirical evidence of persisting security considerations post-2011 in Euro–Arab relations, and a more elaborated vision of future Euro–Arab relations, attempting to balance between three considerations: security, democracy, and governance.     

日本民主党时代的对俄关系及战略性展望

2009年8月,民主党取代了长期垄断日本政坛的自民党,为国内的政治改革送来一缕清新之风。鸠山政权试图摆脱美国对日本的政治束缚,外交政策上强调与东亚国家及地区的合作关系,并暂时缓和了因领土争端而陷入僵局的日俄紧张关系。但是,随着鸠山政权的倒台,以及此后的民主党政权逐渐回归"向美一边倒"的保守主义政治态势,致使日俄领土争端急速升级,双边关系的维系也仅停留于经济窗口的沟通。     

Sino-Ghana bilateral relations and Chinese migrants’ illegal gold mining in Ghana

ABSTRACT

This article examines the participation of some Chinese migrants in illegal gold mining (known as galamsey) in Ghana, and how the Government’s policy to address the issue created diplomatic tension between China and Ghana. Drawing on primary data from in-depth, face-to-face interviews with 250 respondents and supplementary information from archival sources and personal observation, the study found that small-scale gold mining is an area legally reserved for Ghanaian indigenes, who faced stern competition from some Chinese migrants’ miners. Their ability to mobilize resources and machinery to execute galamsey virtually displaced the indigenes from their source of livelihood and caused environmental catastrophes. The Ghana Government’s policy response to the Chinese migrants’ galamsey, which led to arrests, sentencing and deportations of some Chinese miners, angered Beijing and fractured Ghana–China diplomatic ties. But the dispute could not collapse the entrenched bilateral relations between the two nations because the calculated mutual benefit derived from the relations was thought to be higher than the Chinese galamsey issue. Policy reforms which legally integrate Chinese migrants’ miners into the small-scale mining sector would stop galamsey and strengthen Sino-Ghana relations.     

从“十大关系”到“十个结合”

《论十大关系》对中国社会主义建设道路的探索具有重要价值,＂十个结合＂是改革开放宝贵经验的科学总结。贯穿从＂十大关系＂到＂十个结合＂的基本线索就是马克思主义基本理论和中国具体实际相结合,其中渗透的则是马克思主义哲学的世界观和方法论。     

Sir Ernest Satow in Tokyo, 1895-1900: From Triple Intervention to Boxer Rebellion

Satow's term as minister plenipotentiary at Tokyo has not been studied much in detail, though it is arguably the highpoint of his career as a diplomat. Satow was the first British envoy to Japan to have a profound, scholarly understanding of Japanese culture and politics gained over many years of residence in the country. This article offers a survey of Satow's diplomatic activities, and focuses especially on the revision of the so-called unequal treaties in 1899 and the marked improvement in Anglo-Japanese relations during this period.     

Sir John Bradbury and the Reparations Commission, 1920-25

This article looks at a neglected episode during the work of the Reparations Commission of 1920-25 leading up to the Dawes Plan of 1924, when the British delegate to the Commission, Sir John Bradbury, drew up a plan to reschedule German reparation payments in an attempt to take the venom out of the debate over these payments. It takes as its documentary basis the previously unpublished papers of Sir John in his role as Britain's representative on the Reparations Commission from 1920 to 1925. The article concludes that Bradbury's plan had the potential to defuse at least some of the problems encountered in the political and economic results of the reparations policy and that it made a significant contribution to the thinking that emerged in the Dawes Plan.     

东亚制度性一体化视角下两岸关系发展刍议

<海峡两岸经济合作框架协议>(ECFA)的签署宣告两岸经济关系进入制度性一体化阶段.中国台湾由此获得参与东亚制度性一体化进程的现实途径,东亚制度性一体化遂成为影响两岸关系的一个新因素.文章通过对两岸参与东亚经济一体化情况,以及东亚制度性一体化中两岸关系面临的主要问题的阐述,探讨了东亚制度性一体化视角下两岸关系发展问题.本文认为:两岸在东亚制度性一体化中的地位悬殊,中国大陆居于中心,而中国台湾处于边缘,东亚制度性一体化的深入发展将增强中国大陆在两岸关系问题上的主动性,是推动两岸关系和平发展的有利因素;中、美在东亚的博弈是影响东亚制度性一体化中两岸关系的深层原因;未来以两岸制度性一体化为中介,两岸经济一体化、东亚经济一体化和两岸关系发展三者之间将形成良性互动关系.