制度摩擦何以影响中国预算变迁? ——基于1992—2019年的中国预算变迁数据的实证研究

【问题】间断-均衡预算理论通过美国、欧洲等不同国家的联邦、州与地方政府的预算变迁得到检验,该理论对于中国政策过程和预算过程的适用性如何?制度摩擦假设是否能解释预算变迁的间断性?政治周期是否为替代性假设?【方法】论文通过利用1992—2019年的全国、中央和地方预决算数据,利用正态性检验、L-K值等计算方法实证分析了中国预决算变迁的间断性情况。除此之外,论文还采用了固定效应模型分析了政治周期对预算变迁间断性的影响。【发现】研究发现中国预算变迁遵循间断性逻辑,制度摩擦也是导致间断性差异的重要变量,其中所得税收入分享改革作为制度摩擦的代理变量对中央政府预算间断性的影响更为显著。为了检验间断性的政治周期替代性假设,通过比较党代会周期和中央领导人更替周期的间断性,发现政治周期对预算变迁并没有太明显的影响。【贡献】中国的预算变迁为间断-均衡预算理论提供了新的经验证据,这进一步证明了“一般间断假设”和“公共预算的一般经验法则”,从而为理论的外部有效性提供了更多证据。而制度摩擦和政治周期假设的检验为中国预算变迁的间断性提供了更明确的解释。     

Does politics crowd out professional competence? The organisation of ministerial advice in Denmark and Sweden

The use of politically appointed ministerial advisors has increased noticeably in many Western countries, but we know little about how this development has affected the civil servants recruited on merit. The article asks whether political appointees accentuate or blur the line between politics and administration. Do political appointees take over political-tactical advice and leave policy advice to the permanent civil service, or do they cause permanent civil servants to be even more influenced by political considerations? And do political appointees make it easier or more difficult for the permanent civil service to be politically responsive? A Most Similar Systems Design comparison of Denmark and Sweden allows an assessment of the effects of political appointees. It is found that a large number of political appointees decreases functional politicisation of the permanent civil service; that functional politicisation tends to crowd out tasks related to more classic policy advice; and that functional politicisation increases political responsiveness.     

Can citizens care too much? Investment in election outcomes and perceptions of electoral legitimacy

Might there be a downside to citizen engagement with elections? The tendency for citizens who supported a winning candidate or party to be more supportive of the democratic system and more trusting of government than supporters of the losers has been well documented. I test the extent to which individual-level investment in a presidential election campaign amplifies effects of winning or losing using the online component of the 2008 NAES to track the same individuals' from pre-election to post-election. The analysis provides strong evidence of amplifying effects of investment on the relationship between winning or losing and perceptions of electoral legitimacy. Certain types of investment—policy agreement and participation—appear to hold significant implications only for losers and not winners.     

Bring the party back in: Institutional design for ‘smart election fraud’

Autocrats face a dilemma. Continue with fraudulent electoral practices and risk revolt, or reduce fraud and risk losing elections. One solution is to structure electoral governance such that it allows for independence and professionalism at the center, lending credibility to the electoral process, and partisan local-level administration, enabling fraud at the micro level. Partisan poll workers can help deliver the vote by the use of ‘smart fraud’ – fraud that minimizes the risk of being caught and is used only when needed. In Armenia, the ruling party's vote share, as a proportion of all registered voters, increases with 2.5 percentage points in polling stations where the chairperson was randomly assigned to the ruling party. Fraud forensics suggests that one of the mechanisms behind this was falsification of the results protocol during the count. I conjecture that fraud is only used in high-stakes elections and that election observers are unable to detect it.     

代理治理模式：一种统治类型的讨论--以基层政府治理体系为分析单位

代理治理模式揭示基层政府治理的性质,指出基层政府治理体系的核心元素是政治治理而不是科层治理,是党政统合体系与威权治理结构的多重因素作用结果。代理治理模式有三个基本特征：代理治理是政治职能与行政职能的统合体系;代理治理与社会是一种统治关系;代理治理是一种多中心权威治理结构。代理治理模式的权力来源在国家,不在基层社会,向上级政府（国家）负责,与基层社会没有授权关系。代理治理模式的现代转型,应从基层政府的政治职能与行政职能的分离着手,以民主法治原则来建构基层政府的权力结构和治理体系,在行政职能上建构政府治理的公共本质,在政治职能上建构基层治理的社会授权关系。     

The Underexplored Species: Selective Participation in Direct Democratic Votes

While electoral research usually distinguishes voters from abstainers, in the Swiss direct democratic context one needs to take into account a third category of citizens, the selective voters, who decide anew at each vote whether they will participate or not. This article offers an investigation of this common but under‐researched form of participation. To that end, we take advantage of a unique data‐set linking official turnout data with survey data. Our results show that selective voters constitute the bulk of the electorate. While they form a heterogeneous group in terms of socio‐demographic characteristics, selective voters lean more towards abstainers than towards permanent voters with respect to political variables. We argue that this is not necessarily bad news in terms of democratic theory.     

Understanding differences in crime reporting practices: a comparative approach

Despite a large body of literature detailing crime reporting practices, scant research examines the correlates of the crime reporting decision in developing nations with newer democracies, newer economies, or developing economies. Using a sample of 23 nations from the 2000 International Crime Victimization Survey (ICVS), this study tests the generalizability of correlates of robbery and assault reports to the police in a non-US sample to determine whether there are national differences in reporting practices. Based on this analysis emphasizing the developing world and countries in transition, an expanded model, integrating incident, demographic, police-related, and national variables, is developed that will enhance our understanding of differences in reporting practices in developing and developed nations. Results identified both similarities and differences in crime reporting practices between developed and developing nations. Although the findings reinforce the importance of incident and demographic characteristics on reporting crime to the police, they also suggest that national variables, reflecting economic and social context, should not be excluded from studies examining reporting practices.     

Between anti-westernism and development: political Islam and environmentalism

As Turkey's Gezi Park protests reminded us, Islamist parties the world over demonstrate utter disregard of the environment in their discourse and actions. However, Islam as a religion places strong emphasis on environmental protection. Thus, as the representatives of Islam that these parties claim themselves to be, it is puzzling that environmental policy is all but absent from most Islamist platforms. I ask, what explains the poverty of Islamists in regards to the environment? I argue that the reason for this poverty is found within and conforms to political Islam's problematic relationship with modernity, particularly in regards to their strong anti-western sentiment and self-purported victim status. My findings suggest that the inattention Islamists give to the environment is due to their association of environmentalism with the West and because of the uniquely unfavourable socio-economic environments in which they exist, which sends environmentalism to the purview of ‘low politics’. This analysis points to an inherent weakness in Islamist ideology – their lack of pragmatic policy. Hence, the peculiar case of Islamists and the environment is but a symptom of a larger issue within Islamism and can be a key element to understanding why and how Islamism is likely to fail.     

泰国社会转型过程中的“缓冲器”——制造可控的政治危机

20世纪90年代以来,泰国正经历着社会的全面转型,社会转型带来不可避免的社会动荡。然而有着自身政治发展规律的泰国却通过制造一系列可控的政治危机消减社会转型造成的过剩能量,维持着整个社会的基本稳定,推进着国内政治的发展。可以预见,在泰国社会转型没有最终完成之前,其国内政治危机仍将是社会常态。     

东北亚区域经济合作的政治环境

国际政治环境不仅是一个国家制定内、外政策的依据,更是影响其发展的关键因素。东北亚国际政治环境对于区域经济合作具有重要意义。东北亚这一区域正在经历全球体系中发生的三项重大变革:即,全球化、现代化与国际体系力量核心的转移。这些变革直接影响到区域内的国家之间的关系及其地区内的格局。其中,全球化、国际体系与国家关系的演变对区域合作产生重要的影响。