King Wenceslas’ relations with the Teutonic Order in light of the dispute over the Archbishopric of Riga (1392–1397)

King Wenceslas of the Romans (1378–1400) and of Bohemia (1378–1419) supported the Teutonic Knights, but his involvement in the Eastern Baltic region during the 1390s turned him into an enemy of the Knights. This paper argues that the change in Wenceslas’ policy was solely in the interests of his courtier Duke Swantibor of Pomerania-Stettin, who sought to establish his son as Archbishop of Riga. Wenceslas’ support for Swantibor owed to the traditions of courtly favor and instability in Bohemia, not out of any personal grudge against the Knights, as was claimed in earlier historiography.     

佐科维执政初期印尼华人社会状况初探

印尼总统佐科维自2014年10月上台以来,重视与中国发展政治与经贸关系,与中国缔结全面战略伙伴关系。在族群政策方面,他采用公平对待各族裔、各宗教的政策,继续改善包括华人在内的少数族裔的地位,华人的政治参与、经济参与和社会文化权利都有所提升。在此背景下,外界认为印尼华人正处在历史的最佳时期。但在较好的现状和光明的前景下,依然存在影响华人生存状况的隐忧。印尼经济发展疲软、政府控制力偏弱以及歧视华人的社会基础深厚,是造成隐忧频现的原因。如果佐科维政府的经济改革仍不奏效,政府对社会现状持续失控,针对华人的大规模骚乱事件仍将有可能发生。     

Distinguishing territorial structure from electoral adventurism: The distinct sources of static and dynamic nationalization

Estimates of static nationalization do not always reflect stark qualitative differences between parties. We use a research design oriented around a comparison of sharply different parties—the unstable Democratic Left in Ecuador and the stable Broad Front in Uruguay—to develop the distinctiveness of static and dynamic nationalization. Snapshot measures that only consider a single election suggest that both parties are poorly statically nationalized; but we show that the former case is highly statically nationalized, and that the observed territorial differences arise because it is poorly dynamically nationalized. We adopt the linear mixed modeling approach to reduce the bias in extant estimators. The approach is also informative about the sources of variance in a party's territorial support: relatively stable district attributes account for static nationalization, while features unique to the electoral cycle account for dynamic nationalization. Substantively, our study alters conclusions about parties operating in highly unstable electoral contexts.     

The political participation of disabled people in Europe: Rights,accessibility and activism

This paper provides the first systematic cross-national assessment of disabled people's electoral and political participation, based on research in the 28 Member States of the European Union and in the context of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities. A mixed methods approach included policy analysis, information requests to national experts and secondary analysis of European survey data. The evidence populated indicators which suggest four lines of action: (a) lifting legal and administrative barriers; (b) raising awareness; (c) making political participation more accessible; (c) expanding participation opportunities in public life. Civil society organizations as well as public institutions have an important role to play as change agents in this regard.     

New members as party modernisers: The case of the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland

Amid the literature on members of political parties, surprisingly little has been written on the potential or actual impacts that can be made upon party strategy or policies by a rapid influx of new members. New joiners may have different outlooks and desires than long-standing members. Although already sympathetic to the party they are joining, new arrivals, if signing up in large numbers, may hold sufficiently revisionist views to be able to re-orientate a political party in a direction not previously taken. Using data from the first-ever membership survey of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in Northern Ireland, the largest party in the Northern Ireland Assembly since 2003 and the fourth largest UK parliamentary party since 2005, this article analyses whether more recent joiners of the Party have brought greater pragmatism and moderation to an organisation previously dominated by hardline political, religious and ethnic attitudes. Modernisation from outsiders who become insiders can be a key aspect of party development. The DUP offers one of the stiffest tests of modernisation, given its history of opposition to moderation. This article shows that newer members have tempered beliefs in one of the most robustly ethno-religious parties in Europe.     

政治安全问题的微观根源：基于制度与生活逻辑的分析

经济社会的深刻转型与风险社会的渐趋深化,渐次引发了现代理性对传统制度价值的撕裂式解构“,生活的政治”日渐进入民众的日常生活体验中。基于宏观层面的分析视角已然无法有效概括、诠释乃至应对政治安全话语体系中的诸多问题,由此引发的理论迷思与实践困境启示我们应突破国家与社会的实体论和二元对立思想,打通从国家逻辑的宏大叙事到生活逻辑的日常叙事之间的壁障,从而在对政治安全制度逻辑的分析过程中,建构一个基于微观层面的替代性分析框架。制度的失场、僵化以及制度间的抵牾,都会成为政治安全问题衍生的结构性根源,应基于对制度与生活逻辑的细致观察而探寻政治安全实现与维系的微观基础。     

Leave and Remain voters’ knowledge of the EU after the referendum of 2016

Since the UK's vote to leave the European Union, there has been considerable debate about whether voters (particularly Leave voters) were well-informed prior to making their decisions. We gave a 15-item EU knowledge quiz to a large, nationally representative sample of the British population via an online survey. Our quiz included nine ‘ideologically neutral’ items, as well as six items that we deemed more ‘ideologically convenient’ for one side or the other. Overall, there was no average difference between Leave voters and Remain voters (either before or after controlling for covariates), despite the fact that Remain voters scored slightly higher on a short test of probability reasoning. In addition, both Leave and Remain voters were more likely to answer correctly on items that were ‘ideologically convenient’ for them. Consistent with the previous literature, older age, male gender, higher education, and stronger political interest were all significant predictors of EU knowledge. Interestingly however, these variables only predicted knowledge on the nine ‘ideologically neutral’ items; their associations with knowledge on the six ‘ideologically convenient’ items were generally weak and non-significant.     

Labeling candidates as underdogs in political communications: The moderation of candidate-related factors

Underdogs are individuals or groups who are at a disadvantage in competitive situations or predicted to fail in competition against rivals. In elections, candidates often label themselves as underdogs, regardless of their poll rankings, using the associated image of weakness to appeal to voters. This study examines the advertising effects related to labeling candidates as underdogs (versus frontrunners) in political communications, and the possible moderating effects of candidate-related factors, including media-based poll rankings, biological sex, and physical attractiveness. The results of two experiments show that a candidate's use of the underdog label generates better advertising effects when polls indicate the promoted candidate is close to or substantially behind the competitor, or when the promoted candidate is female and moderately physically attractive. However, using the frontrunner label generates better advertising effects when the promoted candidate is male, highly physically attractive, or substantially prevailing over the competitor in the polls.     

Information and direct democracy: What voters learn about ballot measures and how it affects their votes

Limited research has evaluated what voters know about the initiatives and referendums that regularly appear on their ballots. Analyzing survey data covering nine ballot measures in three U.S. states, I explore what voters know about measures that would implement policies ranging from approving same-sex marriage to requiring identification to vote. My results show a great deal of variation across both ballot measures and type of knowledge. Specifically, I find that knowledge of endorsements and status quo policies is similar to their knowledge of civics. Policy specific facts, however, lag far behind. My results also show that voters tend to know more about moral issues. Increased campaign spending also helps voters learn about relevant endorsements, though not facts. When comparing the efficacy of facts versus endorsements, knowledge of an endorsement has a measurable decision-improving impact on voters’ choices while knowing a fact only rarely does.     

虚拟社会背景下大学生政治意识表达现状与实现机制研究——基于北京航空航天大学ihome网络社区的内容分析

虚拟社会极大改变人们的知识整合方式,也对大学生政治意识表达产生重大影响.虚拟社会下大学生政治意识表达呈现三个特点,即主动性弱化、表达话语形式大众化、对“政治”一词理解的生活化和现实化以及表达内容的多样化等.在虚拟社会下要积极构建与大学生政治意识表达相适应的实现机制：一是使大学生政治意识表达主动性在现实社会的政治教育实践中得以实现;二是培育网络意见领袖,建立多层次、全方位的虚拟社会政治意识表达实现机制;三是加强虚拟社会环境治理,建设健康、安全的虚拟社会政治意识表达秩序.