美国国内政治生态与台湾问题上的“双轨政策”——以里根时代为例

中美建交以来,美国对台湾问题奉行"双轨政策".文章以该政策的始作俑者--里根时代的台湾问题为例展开论述.首先,简述里根时代"双轨政策"的表现.接着,从美国国内政治的角度透视了里根奉行该政策的缘由,认为这是由总统个人的外交哲学以及美国国内政治生态中的诸因素共同决定的.最后,通过回顾建交以来历届美国总统"双轨政策"的演变得出结论,认为在透视当前和预测未来的美国对台湾问题政策时,要关注美国政治生态中诸项因素的作用.     

A spatial analysis of green teams: a tactical response to marijuana production in British Columbia

Over a period of 4 years (1997–2000), British Columbia (BC) experienced tremendous growth in the illicit production and distribution of domestically grown marijuana. By the close of 2000, each policing jurisdiction in BC had adopted a particular policy in response to grow operation proliferation. In summary, four policy responses were noted. First, some maintained the status quo wherein enforcement of police initiated investigations and citizens’ tips continued, but with no additional resources specifically dedicated to grow operations. Second, some jurisdictions suspended the majority of investigation and enforcement of grow operations. Third, some agencies implemented or reinforced existing resource intensive drug squads, which focused on trafficking, sales and production of all types of drugs. Finally, some of the jurisdictions formed specialized tactical units known as “green teams” that focused solely on the enforcement of marijuana production. In this paper, we evaluate the effectiveness of green teams using a Geographic Information System (GIS) and difference-in-difference estimates. The results indicate that green teams decrease grow operations within their target area without significant displacement to surrounding areas.

论刑事政策的评估

刑事政策评估的内容包括效益评估、成本评估、影响评估、过程评估、价值评估 ,其评估方法有前后对比法、成本效益分析法。影响刑事政策评估的重要因素有 :评估体制、评估主体、评估方法、评估环境等 ,应建立多层次、多方位的刑事政策评估机制。     

如何治理“滞胀”

金融危机后,我国经济面临着诸多新问题,其中包括"滞胀"风险。"滞胀"的成因包括国际商品市场上原材料价格上涨、经济结构转型成本上升等因素。在我国传统的调控体系中,由原材料、能源价格上涨引起的"滞胀"可以通过降低工资来应对,但工资上涨恰恰又是诱发我国"滞胀"的原因之一,而且工资上涨将是中国今后相当长一段时期内的常态。因此,如何从供给出发,降低生产成本、交易成本以消除企业成本上升给经济带来的影响就成为今后我国设计宏观调控政策必须解决的重要问题。     

试论中国共产党坚持“走人民群众路线”的必然性

坚持走人民群众路线是中国共产党成立90余年来创造并发展的一条重要经验。来源于人民、植根于人民并服务于人民,是党立于不败之地的根本所在。坚持走人民群众路线,是马克思主义唯物史观的根本要求。人民群众是中国共产党领导革命和开展社会主义建设的坚强主体和核心力量,人民群众的伟大实践为党的革命和建设提供了理论与实践源泉。坚持走人民群众路线是深入贯彻＂以人为本＂理念的集中体现。在国情、世情、党情发生巨大变化的今天,坚持走人民群众路线是促进科学发展,推进和谐社会建设,实现全面小康和现代化的有力保证。     

网络民意在政策问题建构中的作用研究

政策问题是通过公共活动应该得到但却未能得到实现的需要。构建政策问题是政策制定过程的首要环节,也是整个政策周期的逻辑起点。在前互联网时代政策问题的建构主要是由大众传媒和政策信息子系统来完成的。互联网的普及为广大民众参与构建政策问题提供了便捷。案例研究表明网络民意在政策问题建构中的作用突出体现在四个方面:第一,感知并扩散问题情境;第二,帮助搜寻政策问题;第三,促进共识,参与政策问题确认;第四,对政策问题描述进行监督,减少虚假信息。     

韩国国会议员社会背景管窥

韩国国会议员的社会背景是其政策决策的社会源流。韩国的内外政策从宏观看存在着左右分野,而从微观看则明显带有个人的影响。韩国社会是一个人情社会,社会标签与网络决定了个人的情绪与政策喜好。在对议员社会背景的分析中,性别与血型、血缘与地域、教育经历、职业生涯、特别经历等因素决定了议员本人的活动与价值观,从而决定了政策的基本走向。这些基本的社会背景因素对国会议员的议政活动和议会政治发展产生了种种影响。     

What Makes a Key Player in Interorganizational Social Policy Networks? The Case of Uruguay

ABSTRACT

Networks of organizations involved in public policy implementation require strong interaction, concerted action and high degrees of collaboration to be effective. However, little is known about how different types of organizations involved in implementation of multi-sectoral social policies interact in these networks. In this article the relationship between organizational characteristics and network position is explored, as well as how the intensity of collaborations can also determine organizations’ involvement in networks. The nature of funding (public/private) and the remit of activity of organizations are found to determine their influence and importance in social policy networks. Furthermore, the network position of the organizations also depends on the level of intensity of their interactions. These results can guide public administrators when developing and promoting networks to involve a particular type of actor and also policymakers as to which types of ties are more aligned with the implementation of a particular policy.     

Decomposing Audience Costs: Bringing the Audience Back into Audience Cost Theory

According to a growing tradition in International Relations, one way governments can credibly signal their intentions in foreign policy crises is by creating domestic audience costs: leaders can tie their hands by publicly threatening to use force since domestic publics punish leaders who say one thing and do another. We argue here that there are actually two logics of audience costs: audiences can punish leaders both for being inconsistent (the traditional audience cost), and for threatening to use force in the first place (a belligerence cost). We employ an experiment that disentangles these two rationales, and turn to a series of dispositional characteristics from political psychology to bring the audience into audience cost theory. Our results suggest that traditional audience cost experiments may overestimate how much people care about inconsistency, and that the logic of audience costs (and the implications for crisis bargaining) varies considerably with the leader's constituency.     

社会服务领域政策理论构建初探

社会服务体系建设包括众多议题,我们不能仅仅考虑政策法规层面和实践层面的建设,更要重视理论层面的建设,只有这样,社会服务体系建设才算完整。需要强调的是,社会服务领域不仅需要一般科学研究提出的社会科学理论和自然科学理论,更需要用于指导社会服务政策和实践、定位于政策的理论,即政策理论。本着这一目的,本文就社会服务领域理论的政策用途、如何构建和构建什么样的政策理论进行初步探索。