俄罗斯总统大选及今后4年的内外政策走向

在刚刚结束的俄罗斯大选中,现任第一副总理梅德韦杰夫获胜,普京的支持是梅德韦杰夫获胜的重要原因。新一届政府继续推行普京路线,但是在政治体制上将会出现事实上的调整。在对外关系中将继续以维护国家利益为中心,开展多极化的务实外交;在经济上,新一届政府面临的主要任务是确保经济增长、调整经济结构。     

The development of policy actors involved in the Bologna reform in Ukraine

The Bologna Process is an international policy project for the convergence of higher education structures in the European Higher Education Area. Most of the literature on Bologna represents studies that focus on the implementation implications of the reforms. The focus on the reform process, particularly in relation to the development process of Bologna policy actors, has been under-represented in the literature. This article investigates the process of the development of the main policy actors involved in the Bologna reform in the case of Ukraine. The timeframe includes the pre-history of Bologna since Ukrainian independence in 1991 until after the introduction of the relevant policy changes in 2003, and through to the issue of 2014 Law on Higher Education. Empirical data were collected through interviews with higher education actors in Ukraine and policy document search. Both types of data were thematically analyzed. The analysis in this article is informed by the policy learning theory and demonstrates the interconnection between path-dependency and change in the development of policy actors in the Bologna reform in Ukraine. This article shows that the old clusters of higher education actors, and the pre-Bologna relationships amongst some of them have been reproduced during the Bologna reform. At the same time, such a reproduction of the old during the reform was only partial as the Bologna Process has also been altering the relationships among some actors to an extent.     

Single-party government,Prime Minister psychology,and the diversionary use of force: theory and evidence from the British case

ABSTRACT

This paper develops expectations about the likelihood of diversionary conflict initiation by parliamentary democracies with single-party majoritarian (SPM) governments. While most of the literature on diversion and governmental arrangement claims that SPMs have little incentive and/or limited capacity to execute diversionary gambits, we contend that the structural and environmental impetuses for diversion in such states are in fact largely indeterminate. We posit that the psychological attributes of prime ministers under SPM – in particular, their level of distrust – is the most important predictor of how they view structural and environmental constraints, and thus of whether they will militarily divert from poor economic conditions. Distrustful prime ministers are predisposed to the use of force, will dwell on the costs of economic problems, and fear that co-partisan MPs (especially in the cabinet) have designs on their office. Thus, despite having a legislative majority, these leaders will choose diversionary conflict over economic policy fixes. We conduct a partial test of this hypothesis in the British case from 1945 to 2007, and our analyses provide robust support.     

美国与巴基斯坦关系的改善及其制约因素

冷战后,巴基斯坦在美国外交中的战略地位明显下降,特朗普上台后更是重印轻巴,推出了高度重视印度的南亚战略和印太战略,对巴基斯坦则实行极限施压政策以逼其加大反恐力度。美国的政策变化引起了巴基斯坦政府和民众的不满与抵制,两国间出现激烈的外交纷争,美巴关系陷入僵局。然而,巴基斯坦在美国的阿富汗战争和外交战略中处于不可忽视的地位,并且巴基斯坦是具有一定的对美反制能力的地区强国,特朗普政府在更为重要的阿富汗和谈问题上需要得到巴基斯坦的帮助。在权衡利弊后,特朗普政府调整对巴基斯坦政策,从以压促变调整为拉拢利用,美巴关系随之从高度紧张走向逐渐缓和。然而,美巴在短期利益和长远战略上都存在难以弥合的矛盾和分歧,双边关系发展缺乏坚实的合作基础和长远计划,两国在主要的共同利益——阿富汗政治和解方面存在目标和利益差异。此外,美印关系不断提升,使美巴双边关系的进一步发展困难重重。美国不愿放弃在巴基斯坦及邻近地区的战略利益,短期内会维持美巴合作,但从长远看,众多挑战和制约因素使两国关系存在较大的不确定性。美巴关系的走向不仅影响到南亚局势,还会冲击到我国的周边安全、中巴关系的发展以及"一带一路"倡议的推进,应当密切关注。     

我国农民工心理健康与保护策略研究概述(2010-2019年)

农民工从乡村到城市后,面对就业收入、子女教育、人际关系等剧烈变化的陌生环境,往往承受着较大的心理压力。过高压力可能带来诸多社会和医学问题,导致事故、酗酒、意外伤亡、自杀和家庭破裂,使社会蒙受巨大损失。解决农民工心理健康问题牵涉到社会保障、城市管理、工业发展等工作,需要政府及卫生部门、安监部门、社会保障部门等密切配合,供给有效保护农民工心理健康的社会政策。     

加强我国公共卫生治理体系和治理能力现代化的思考——以科学认识和把握疫情防控的新常态为视角

全球范围内,变异流感病毒感染事件的发生间隔期出现缩短的趋势,进入20世纪90年代以后,这种事件平均每2年就发生一次。当前,我国新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎疫情(以下简称“新冠肺炎疫情”)防控的“总体战、阻击战”取得了重要的阶段性成果,但新型冠状病毒也许不会像SARS那样很快消失。因此,需要经常应对新发传染病的挑战或许会成为疫情防控的“新常态”。本文在分析新冠肺炎疫情本身的特点和全球新发传染病流行趋势的基础上,本着学先进、补短板、堵漏洞、强弱项的原则,提出在疫情防控进入“新常态”后如何有效加强我国公共卫生治理体系和治理能力现代化的建议。     

朝鲜核问题的三种解决前景与中国的政策选择

朝鲜核问题有三种发展变化前景:第一种前景,美国对朝发动军事打击,引发东北亚局部战争;第二种前景,通过谈判和平解决,朝放弃核武计划,美等有关国家向朝提供经济与安全补偿;第三种前景,朝在时机有利时突破核门槛,成为事实上的核国家。第一种前景和第三种前景都不符合中国的利益,中国应努力争取朝核问题循第二途解决。     

WTO框架下的金融服务贸易与资本流动和金融稳定

WTO下的金融自由化与资本账户的放开并非等同。GATS允许成员方有选择地进行金融承诺的特点为成员方通过对金融自由化政策的科学管理来实现金融稳定和发展提供了条件。不同服务提供方式和不同部门的自由化对金融稳定具有不同影响 ,允许外国金融机构在国内建立商业存在 (但不过分限制其业务经营 )、覆盖范围广泛的金融自由化通常对金融稳定具有良好的效果。这一研究视角及结论为我国管理金融服务政策提供了有用的分析工具和有益的借鉴。     

袁世凯执政时期对秘密社会的政策

袁世凯对秘密社会的政策关系到秘密社会各个分支在民国社会中的定位,在某种程度上影响了新生的中华民国的发展方向。袁世凯对秘密社会查禁的重点是与革命党合作的洪门帮会,与革命党基本上没什么关系的青帮则安然无恙,对秘密社会中的会道门总体上则采取了暗中放纵的态度,给相当一部分的会道门以改头换面取得合法地位的机会。作为一个国家元首,袁世凯将国家的法律、法令玩弄于股掌之间,给民国的统治者不遵法纪开了一个恶劣的先例。     

The regional politics of scale: revisiting the functional aspects of the labour market dualism

This article seeks to revisit Arthur Lewis’s theory of labour market dualism, while focusing on human resource development in the form of labour productivity, to explain its usefulness in the Caribbean Community’s (CARICOM) contemporary policy discourses around non-economic integration in an era that is now classified as the Caribbean Educational Policy Space. The focus is on how key assumptions around labour productivity, and the lessons that can be deduced from analysing historical and contemporary policy initiatives, present plausible applicability to an expanding Caribbean single market and the proposed creation of the Caribbean single economy. In focusing on the discursive elements of labour productivity, it is contextualized that the free movement of skilled labour within CARICOM illustrates labour market dualism.