美元的信用下降与中国的策略选择

全球经济正在经历着一场前所未有的变革,而美元则站在这场变革的前沿。可以看到,随着美元的不断贬值,美国物价上涨的速度有时会超过收入增长的速度。随着美元购买力的下跌,美国人以不变价格计算的真实收入实际上在下降,他们不得不用更多的美元去购买相同的东西,相对落后的收入增长却无法弥补价格的膨胀。在国际贸易上,美国的贸易赤字不断扩大,而且还会继续扩大,美国已成为世界最大的债务国,美国经济中的泡沫加剧了美国经济的滑坡,令人遗憾的是,美国无法就此刹车,美元的国际信用下降是不可遏制的。美元信用下降将给全球带来巨大影响,我国必须对此做出策略选择。     

Y chromosome J2 subtyping in an Italian sample: Population and forensic implications

In the recent years the Y chromosome genealogy has been refined by a number of newly discovered SNPs. The non-random distribution of the Y chromosome lineages worldwide makes fundamental the dissection and characterisation of haplogroups associated with specific geographic areas. In Southern Europe the haplogroup J2, as defined by the M172 marker, can reach frequencies up to 35%, making the dissection of such lineage critical for population studies. Here we present a study on J2 chromosomes from the Italian peninsula. Populations and forensic implications are discussed. A total of 900 individuals were previously genotyped for a number of SNPs, including M172. More than 200 of these have been now genotyped for 7 SNPs within the J2 lineage using a multiplex SNaPshot approach. The different distribution of the various lineages in different geographic areas probably reflects different historical demographic events and points to differential Y chromosome haplotype distribution, with implication for forensic application of this genetic marker.     

略论打击犯罪与保障人权在立法上的平衡

打击犯罪与保障人权是一对矛盾体,要使二者达到一种大体平衡,立法上的平衡是根本。在当前我国的刑事犯罪形势下,实践中普遍存在着保障人权的立法偏弱和在立法方面不顾国情的问题。为此在立法上必须坚持程序法与实体法相结合,坚持理论依据、考虑国情、循序渐进的原则,加快我国保障人权的立法进程,真正实现打击犯罪与保障人权的平衡。     

我国警察角色的“是”与“应当”

关于警察角色是打击犯罪还是服务的争论所讨论的并不是警察角色的本质．只是这种本质的表现形式。从本质上来说警察在社会中的地位在于管理阶层，功能在于管理社会秩序。当然对本质表现形式的分析和对本质的分析一样有重要意义，对警务改革和警察机构的建设，社会防控体系的构建都有着比警察本质更直接的指导意义。通过对警察角色表现形式的“是”与“应当”的分析与比较可以直接推导出警务改革的方向。     

浅析“拒不退还”的几个问题

通过对“拒不退还”与“非法占为已有”的关系、“拒不退还”的最后时限、“拒不退还”的认定的分析探讨，可以为司法实践中如何认定侵占罪提供一定的借鉴。     

论首要分子的停止形态

在我国,首要分子只存在于犯罪集团和聚众犯罪之中,犯罪集团首要分子又可以分为必要集团首要分子和任意集团首要分子,而聚众犯罪首要分子都属于必要首要分子,因此首要分子可以分为必要首要分子和任意首要分子。首要分子的停止形态是一个十分复杂的问题,可以按必要首要分子的停止形态和任意首要分子的停止形态的分类进行分析。     

对重点人口管理制度的经济分析

重点人口管理在实践中存在着许多普遍性问题,原因在于制度设计时未考虑经济因素.对重点人口管理制度进行经济分析,可以发现其管理制度存在运行成本过高导致执行主体缺乏投入的积极性和可能性、监督成本过高导致监督缺位和"产权"设定的不合理挫伤了成本投入主体的积极性等缺陷.重点人口管理应从列管、核实查证、日常管理三个环节来降低运行成本;通过改革监督评价指标来降低监督成本;通过交易明晰"产权",使成本投入者在重点人口管理工作中获得应有的收益.     

Survival analysis: A survey

This paper is a survey of statistical methods used to analyze the length of time until a specified event occurs. These models have often been used to analyze the survival times (i.e., time until death) of medical patients, and so the term survival analysis is natural. In criminology, the main application of these models has been to analyze the time until recidivism, but many other applications are possible. The paper summarizes the statistical literature on survival analysis, and describes its applications in criminology. The methods are illustrated by an application to the prediction of time until recidivism for a sample of North Carolina prison releasees.     

信用卡犯罪的变化趋势与防治对策

随着信用卡发卡量的急剧增长,我国信用卡犯罪日益增多,并且出现了很多新特点。职能部门应当通过完善法律制度与加强协作配合、技术防范、法制宣传等途径防治信用卡犯罪。     

Homicide and economic change: Recent analyses of the Joint Economic Committee report of 1984

The relation between recession and homicide is classic in the United States. This has been affirmed in the 1976 and 1984 Reports to the Joint Economic Committee (JEC) of the United States Congress. Recent analysis confirms the findings reported in both 1976 and 1984 and demonstrates that the influence of recession on homicide is greater than previously estimated. Differences in the 1976 and 1984 findings on homicide are related to differences in the hypotheses tested, as discussed in detail and highlighted in the 1984 report. JEC staff correctly interpreted and reported the 1984 findings. Reproduction of the 1984 homicide equation is straightforward, provided the same data and any of several standard estimation techniques are used. Evidence does not support any of Cook and Zarkin's claims in their critique of the 1984 homicide equation. The JEC report of 1984 used appropriate techniques in the attempt (a) to ensure that influences attributed to economic changes are not actually due to other social factors and (b) to minimize underspecification of models.