基于数据驱动建模的毒情预测方法研究

数据驱动建模是一种非因果关系建模方法,针对传统回归模型依赖于经验,含有主观和盲目因素的问题,在模型设定阶段不需要一个以既有理论(或假说)为支持的理论模型,通过对数据结构的分析,依据数据自身的变化规律,利用外推机制描述时间序列数据的变化,从而有效解决数据量较少、预测模型拟合精度较低的问题,由此提供了一条普遍适用的建模思路。     

WTO规则视野下我国矿产行政管理体制的完善

中国在加入WTO的过程中为履行入世承诺进行了大规模的修法以适应WTO规则,然而,由于缺乏系统性的修法,体制性的问题逐步显现并成为中国履行入世承诺的障碍。本文从我国矿业管理体制的条块格局出发,结合WTO机制中对成员方行政行为的体制性要求,分析了我国政府在对资源品进出口控制方面所面临的困境,在有限的范围内提出了相关的解决措施。     

Security policies and the weakening of personal data protection in the European Union

In recent years, the reinforcement of security policies alongside the expansion of information systems for law enforcement and crime prevention entailed growing restrictions to personal data protection principles and procedural rights in the European Union. This paper seeks to elucidate this trend, while matching it with an EU institutional discourse based on balancing and proportionality. Indeed, EU institutions regularly present security measures and fundamental rights as somewhat symmetric values to be easily conciliated through balancing and proportionality. Considering the raising of the protection of personal data to the status of a fundamental right by the Charter of Fundamental Rights, its effect on a possible rebalancing of the values at stake is discussed. Yet, we conclude, for the time being, the potential for just and democratic solutions provided by the ideas of balancing and proportionality does not appear to be properly used.     

Data and information theft in e-commerce, jurisdictional challenges, related issues and response of Indian laws

Data and information constitute a valuable resource both for the companies in general and individuals in specific. The traditional paper based transaction has been replaced by electronic transaction and now a day’s most of the valuable data and information’s are stored in electronic medium. Therefore data and information security have become a matter of great concern for every agencies acting on faith of e-transaction. In India there remains an added significance owing to the fact that a growing number of companies seek more centralized and less expensive methods of processing information, they’re turning to offshore outsourcing to fulfill many of their business and human resources processes. Data theft is not in itself a new concept, but has become an increasingly important issue in the digital age. The new mode of communication, its malleability, transmissibility, networking capacity, affect our lives in many and sometimes surprising ways, it requires that we find new legal solutions for new social questions.     

论我国未成年人犯罪个人资料保护

未成年人犯罪个人资料保护是我国现行法律法规中较为薄弱的一个部分,现行规定较为模糊和笼统,和当前法治发展要求进一步加大对未成年人的保护趋势不相适应。针对现存的保护时间节点过窄、责任主体不明、抹销制度与前科报告三大问题提出相应立法和司法建议,力求符合未成年人犯罪个人资料保护的时代发展要求,完善我国未成年人犯罪个人资料保护。     

Internet auction fraud: The evolving nature of online auctions criminality and the mitigating framework to address the threat

Online auctions have emerged as one of the popular segments of e-commerce. The popularity of this technology-aided business model is evidenced by the continuous growth of eBay and other e-auction markets. However, this growth of online auctions has also led to a corresponding rise in deception and online criminal activity. This paper presents the findings of an original experiment undertaken to examine the evolving criminality associated with eBay auctions. The article examines eBay’s existing fraud prevention framework and evaluate its effectiveness in mitigating the risk. The research has identified foundation of eBay’s fraud problem - the inability of eBay’s fraud prevention architecture to identify and eliminate rogue traders with obscure identity and questionable reputation. The authors have proposed a proactive and holistic e-fraud prevention typology to enhance trader’s authentication to fight online auction fraud.     

Stability and Change in Party Preference

This article analyses stability and volatility of party preferences using data from the Swiss Household‐Panel (SHP), which, for the first time, allow studying transitions and stability of voters over several years in Switzerland. Analyses cover the years 1999–2007 and systematically distinguish changes between party blocks and changes within party blocks. The first part looks at different patterns of change, which show relatively high volatility. The second part tests several theories on causes of such changes applying a multinomial random‐effects model. Results show that party preferences stabilise with their duration and with age and that the electoral cycle, political sophistication, socio‐structural predispositions, the household‐context as well as party size and the number of parties each explain part of electoral volatility. Different results for within‐ and between party‐block changes underlie the importance of that differentiation.     

Biased Sanctions? Methodological Change in Economic Sanctions Reconsidered and Its Implications

We investigate the influence of case selection and (re)coding for two vintages of a key resource for research on economic sanctions: the Peterson Institute database reported in Hufbauer et al. (second edition in 1990 and third edition in 2007, often identified by their abbreviations HSE and HSEO). The Peterson Institute has not transparently reported about these changes. These changes make it more likely to find sanction success. A multivariate probit analysis establishes upward bias related to modest policy change, duration, and cost to target and downward bias for regime change, military impairment, companion policies, and cost to the sender.     

Using Big Data and Algorithms to Determine the Effect of Geographically Targeted Advertising on Vote Intention: Evidence From the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

We develop a new conceptualization of political advertising effects by looking at the effect of the marginal advertising dollar during the heat of presidential campaigns. We argue that in contrast to other studies investigating effects of political ads, our approach is more apt to capture the natural environment in which political ads are encountered during a presidential campaign. We focus on the intense inundation of political ads voters are confronted with in swing states in the weeks leading up to the presidential election, and argue that it is unclear a priori whether we should expect advertising to affect vote intention in that critical circumstance. We empirically validate this hypothesis using a trove of data from the 2012 campaign: daily polling in media markets around the country, detailed data on all registered voters in the country, all TV advertisements by market and exact airtime, and the entire Twitter corpus. We find that neither overall increases in advertising spending nor partisan imbalances in spending expanded the candidates’ electorate. In fact, total Designated Market Area (DMA)-level spending significantly moderates a negative relationship between spending advantages and advantages in vote intention, suggesting a boomerang effect of additional spending late in the campaign. In closing, we discuss the ramifications of our findings for future research, and stress the importance of research tracking advertising effects.     

Development and validation of a liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry assay for hair analysis of methylphenidate

Examination of various SIM cards and smart card devices indicates that data may be retained in SIM card memory structures even after heating to temperatures up to 450 degrees C, which the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has determined to be approximately the maximum average sustained temperature at desk height in a house fire. However, in many cases, and certainly for temperatures greater than 450 degrees C, the SIM card chip has suffered structural or mechanical damage that renders simple probing or rewiring ineffective. Nevertheless, this has not necessarily affected the data, which is stored as charge in floating gates, and alternative methods for directly accessing the stored charge may be applicable.