关于东北综合经济区提升为高新技术产业基地的现实论证

东北综合经济区必须抓住饥遇,依托产业、人才、地缘等优势,加快现代中药和生物药、光电子及信息产业、航空航人产业、新材料产业等高新技术产业基地建设。而对于目前存在的区域金融环境恶化、自主创新能力薄弱、人才机制建设落后、政府眼务意识低下等问题,必须采取有效措施加以解决：积极拓展国际合作,主动寻求国际技术支持;改善区域金融环境,保障科技发展资金支持;实施人才强区战略,保证科技发展智力支持;提高自主创新能力,突破科学技术发展瓶颔;强化政府服务意识,形成政产学研一体化局面。     

Predicting Sex Offender Recidivism. I. Correcting for Item Overselection and Accuracy Overestimation in Scale Development. II. Sampling Error-Induced Attenuation of Predictive Validity Over Base Rate Information

The authors demonstrate a statistical bootstrapping method for obtaining unbiased item selection and predictive validity estimates from a scale development sample, using data (N = 256) of Epperson et al. [2003 Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) technical paper: Development, validation, and recommended risk level cut scores. Retrieved November 18, 2006 from Iowa State University Department of Psychology web site: http://www.psychology.iastate.edu/ approximately dle/mnsost_download.htm] from which the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) was developed. Validity (area under receiver operating characteristic curve) reported by Epperson et al. was .77 with 16 items selected. The present analysis yielded an asymptotically unbiased estimator AUC = .58. The present article also focused on the degree to which sampling error renders estimated cutting scores (appropriate to local [varying] recidivism base rates) nonoptimal, so that the long-run performance (measured by correct fraction, the total proportion of correct classifications) of these estimated cutting scores is poor, when they are applied to their parent populations (having assumed values for AUC and recidivism rate). This was investigated by Monte Carlo simulation over a range of AUC and recidivism rate values. Results indicate that, except for the AUC values higher than have ever been cross-validated, in combination with recidivism base rates severalfold higher than the literature average [Hanson and Morton-Bourgon, 2004, Predictors of sexual recidivism: An updated meta-analysis. (User report 2004-02.). Ottawa: Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada], the user of an instrument similar in performance to the MnSOST-R cannot expect to achieve correct fraction performance notably in excess of what is achievable from knowing the population recidivism rate alone. The authors discuss the legal implications of their findings for procedural and substantive due process in relation to state sexually violent person commitment statutes and the Supreme Court's Kansas v. Hendricks decision regarding the constitutionality of such statutes.     

中俄区域经济合作路径探析

中俄区域经济合作始终是两国政府、学术界和实业界关注的热点问题之一。虽然近几年中俄区域经济合作得到较快发展,但总体上滞后于经济全球化和区域经济一体化的发展趋势,特别是与两国经济实力和发展潜力不相称。因此,如何继续推进和深化中俄区域经济合作,现已成为两国政府面临的共同任务。随着中国西部大开发、东北老工业基地的振兴和俄罗斯西伯利亚与远东开发战略的实施,中俄区域经济合作迎来了一个新的战略发展时期。     

振兴吉林省老工业基地与发展私营经济问题研究

发展私营经济是振兴吉林省老工业基地的一项重要战略举措,私营经济在振兴吉林省老工业基地中 有着十分重要的作用。因此,要为营造私营经济的发展创造良好的外部环境,同时,私营企业必须在谋求自身的发 展上下功夫,创立出适合吉林省私营经济发展的制度模式。     

中国在朝鲜半岛的地缘战略选择:资源基础、目标构想与主要课题

朝鲜半岛对中国国家安全的特殊性和重要性是不言而喻的。对此,人们惯以"唇亡齿寒""唇齿相依"等词来形容这一特殊的地缘关系。历史证明,朝鲜半岛局势的任何变化,均会对中国国家安全产生直接或是间接的重要影响。朝鲜半岛的地缘形势变化,关涉多重中国核心利益的维护、实现和扩展。对中国而言,在"大周边"战略的基本框架之下,加快制定和实施具有前瞻性、全局性和可持续性的朝鲜半岛战略,与朝鲜半岛国家开展更加灵活、务实和全面的合作关系,对中国在21世纪上半叶更好地保持周边环境的整体和平稳定,进一步把握战略机遇期,努力实现国家跨越式发展的战略目标,具有十分重大的现实意义。     

东北老工业基地调整改造中黑龙江深化国企改革的问题

东北老工业基地调整改造是中央新的战略决策。黑龙江国有大中型企业要抓住这一良好的机遇,解放思想,深化改革,实现黑龙江老工业基地的振兴。     

新时期党的理论转型的历史进程

实现由革命党理论向执政党理论的转型,是我党新时期理论建设的首要任务。邓小平理论是实现理论转型的突破口,“三个代表”重要思想是实现理论转型的标志,而科学发展观和执政能力建设的理论,则是“三个代表”思想向实践理性的推进。     

任弼时与黔东红色革命事业

任弼时是黔东革命根据地的重要领导人,对党和军队建设作出重要贡献,并亲身培育了独具首倡意义的木黄会师精神,体现了坚定的革命信念、正确的政治原则、求实的思想方法和灵活的斗争艺术。从黔东红色革命,阐述了任弼时关于保持和发扬红军光荣传统、坚持实事求是思想、增强党性观念等方面的历史认知。     

The USSR and its Diplomatic Partners, 1917-91

After its break with established diplomatic partners in 1917 the Soviet government moved slowly to reconstruct its relations with the outside world. Over the period up to 1991, the largest number of exchanges took place with Finland, and after the Second World War, with Bulgaria and the GDR. But the major capitalist countries steadily became more prominent, and the USA was the USSR's most important diplomatic partner during the 1970s. Similarly, the CMEA states were the USSR's main partners after the Second World War, but by the late 1980s it was NATO member states that predominated. Patterns of this kind are consistent with theories that have suggested the gradual 'socialization' of revolutionary states as they necessarily engage in patterns of interaction with the international community.     

俄国社会革命党建党基础述评

俄国社会革命党是俄国资本主义条件下发展起来的民粹派政党。它吸收传统民粹派和马克思主义、伯恩施坦学说,形成自己社会革命主义的建党理论。社会革命党观点矛盾、组织松散、策略幼稚,是俄国从传统到现代过渡时期社会的不成熟性在政党上的反映。虽如此,社会革命党仍不失为一个代表农民利益,兼顾部分工人和知识分子利益的革命政党。