中国创建学习型政府的动力系统分析

创建学习型政府是适应国内外形势、抓住机遇迎接挑战的需要。全球化的发展、知识社会的到来、信息技术的应用、传统文化的积淀、高层领导的支持等,都有力地推动着学习型政府的顺利创建。     

从信息化建设与应用的角度浅谈动态信息主导勤务

监管动态信息网络建设是看守所勤务模式改革的核心。本市看守所信息化工作从2001年起步至今,大致经历了五个阶段:试点起步阶段、全面建设阶段、数据采集阶段、系统验收阶段、强化应用阶段。看守所岗位工作的动态信息录入信息系统,构成动态信息网络,经共享、处理、研判,形成工作决策,调整勤务措施,从而实现主导勤务。动态信息主导勤务的实现是一个系统工程,其基础是信息化建设与应用,前提是根据看守所管理工作实际、科学合理地提出建立动态信息网络实现动态信息主导勤务的业务需求。     

构建城市动态化治安防控体系的实践与思考——以湖南省衡阳市城区为例

随着城市化进程的加快，社会环境由相对“静态封闭”向“动态开放”转变，城市治安面临着新挑战。针对新的形势，衡阳市公安局自2006年以来构筑“精确型打击、网络化防范、社会化管理、联动化教育、效率化维稳”为一体的新型城市治安防控体系，取得了良好效果。衡阳市公安局的经验表明，构建城市动态治安防控体系必须做到“三个并重，一个统筹”，即整体布防与局部防控并重，静态管理和动态防控并重，专业化手段与群防群治并重，并在防线设计、资源配备、警力调度等方面实行统筹，才能推动城市防控体系发挥出强大功效。     

静态资源关系观及其批判

最近几十年里,关于人类资源关系的辩论越来越激烈。学者们大致形成了两个对立的流派。资源悲观主义认为,人类资源关系是零和的,一个人群消耗的资源增加了,其他群体可能得到的资源就会减少。因此,随着资源越来越匮乏,人类资源冲突会愈演愈烈。资源乐观主义认为,人类资源关系是非零和的,资源冲突能够避免。悲观主义和乐观主义尽管尖锐对立,但有共同缺陷——都是静态理论,对资源关系的解释力有限。对此,本文提出了动态的资源关系理论,能够更好地解释人类资源关系。     

The determinants of value of incoming cross-border mergers & acquisitions in European transition countries

This research aims to determine variables that affect the aggregate value of incoming cross-border M&As in European transitional countries. Dynamic panel models have been estimated using Arellano and Bond GMM estimator for period between year 1994 and 2008. The ratio of the total value of cross-border M&A to GDP of the country is the dependent variable. Independent variables include following indicators: lagged value of cross-border M&A to GDP, lagged GDP per capita, lagged GDP growth, inflation, interest rate spread, lagged private credit to GDP ratio, market capitalization to GDP ratio, lagged rule of law and lagged control of corruption.     

《美韩自由贸易协定》的新变化及其背后的动态博弈

《美韩自由贸易协定》达成后,其进展并不顺利。经过两次追加谈判,历时四年多,最终获得美韩两国国会的批准。本文以2011年2月10日美韩双方签署的新协定为切入点,首先论述了《美韩自由贸易协定》的新变化及其实质,进而从理论和实证两方面对这种新变化背后美国国内政治的动态博弈进行了阐述。通过分析,充分再现了美国国内政治博弈对《美韩自由贸易协定》的内容和走向施加影响的过程,并由此看出,美国政治体制的掣肘已经成为美国迫使对方做出妥协或更大让步以实现自身利益最大化的筹码。     

企业工会：能动的行动者——以北京中外合资企业B有限公司工会实践为例

B有限公司的工会具有代表性,是市场条件下新型劳资关系发展的雏型。工会的组织结构是党政工的高度重合,正是凭借党组织在企业中的影响力工会能够较为有利地实现其权利。工会目标从传统国有企业的生产与维权的双重目标,向着以维权为主的目标发展,建立了一套准市场化的工会目标,即以福利目标为主、民主目标为辅的功能体系。这样,以政府、资方和工会三方谈判为主的劳资关系就被制度化了,工会成为“能动的行动者”,即作为工人利益的代言人,它能主动的发挥作用。     

The Dynamic Interdependence of Developmental Domains Across Emerging Adulthood

Emerging adulthood is a period in which profound role changes take place across a number of life domains including finance, romance, and residence. On the basis of dynamic systems theory, change in one domain should be related to change in another domain, because the concept of development according to this approach is a relational one. To evaluate this hypothesis dynamic systems analysis was applied to data from narrative interviews of 200 respondents covering the years between 17 and 27 to examine how change in one domain affects change in another domain. In each dyad, the fit of the model significantly deteriorated when the coupling between domains was removed providing support for the assumption of interdependency. On average, assuming greater responsibility in one domain was associated with assuming greater responsibility in the other domain. However, imbalances were also observed in which role assumption in one domain far exceeded role assumption in another domain. These imbalances can have detrimental effects and indicate the utility of a balanced approach to development. The findings underscore the importance of studying the relational unit between domains, which is critical to understanding development over time within domains. Post-Doctoral Research fellow in Geriatric Neuro-Psychiatry at Columbia University, College of Physicians and Surgeons and the New York State Psychiatric Institute. He received his PhD in Clinical Psychology at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and his major research interests include statistical methods for evaluating psychiatric nosology, late-life depression, and the stability and change of personality and personality disorders across the lifespan. Research Scientist at the University of Virginia. He received his PhD in Quantitative Psychology at the University of Virginia. His primary interests are in longitudinal data and applying dynamical concepts to structural equation modeling and multilevel methodology. Professor of Psychology at the University of Southern California. He received his PhD in Psychology at Hofstra University. He is principal investigator of the NIA funded National Growth and Change Study and has primary interests in the dynamics of cognitive ability over life span with special emphasis on longitudinal research designs, methodology, and statistical modeling. Research Scientist at New York State Psychiatric Institute and Professor of Public Health (Epidemiology) in Psychiatry at Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons and Columbia University School of Public Health. She received her PhD in social psychology at New York University. Major interests include quantitative methodology and statistics, developmental psychopathology, and lifespan development. Assistant Professor of Psychiatry at Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons. He received his M.D. and Ph.D. in Biostatistics in China. His research interests include epidemiological studies, quality of life, and multivariate statistical methods.     

企业政治行为对管制动态均衡的隐蔽性影响

随着现代管制理论和管制实践的不断发展,研究管制均衡的动态性变化和企业影响管制均衡的隐蔽性行为,对于提高政府管制政策的合理性有着十分重要的意义.因为这些隐蔽性行为处在合法性的边缘或是范围以内,在实践中也越来越多地被企业所运用.从管制过程中的三个利益相关者--消费者、企业和政府之间的现实关系、各自追求不同的目标和相互作用入手,运用Stigle-Peltzman的管制均衡模型研究了政府管制机制从初始设计到现实执行结果之间的演变轨迹,并在此基础上通过对该模型进一步的推理分析和案例研究得出结论,企业运用政治行为对管制动态均衡进行隐蔽性影响,使其向有利于自身的方向发生动态的偏离,从而获取超额利润的机制和作用方式.主要有:利用管制政策的相对静态性,通过隐蔽信息产生管制错位;削弱消费者的影响力,改变政府边际效用替代率.进一步阐述了管制错位和政府失灵的经济学机理,对现有的管制理论和企业政治行为理论进行了拓展,这对提高经济转型时期的我国政府管制政策的合理性具有积极的意义.     

Deception Detection Expertise

A lively debate between Bond and Uysal (2007, Law and Human Behavior, 31, 109-115) and O'Sullivan (2007, Law and Human Behavior, 31, 117-123) concerns whether there are experts in deception detection. Two experiments sought to (a) identify expert(s) in detection and assess them twice with four tests, and (b) study their detection behavior using eye tracking. Paroled felons produced videotaped statements that were presented to students and law enforcement personnel. Two experts were identified, both female Native American BIA correctional officers. Experts were over 80% accurate in the first assessment, and scored at 90% accuracy in the second assessment. In Signal Detection analyses, experts showed high discrimination, and did not evidence biased responding. They exploited nonverbal cues to make fast, accurate decisions. These highly-accurate individuals can be characterized as experts in deception detection.