Examining the Role of Static and Dynamic Risk Factors in the Prediction of Inpatient Violence: Variable- and Person-Focused Analyses

Although the construct of psychopathy is related to community violence and recidivism in various populations, empirical evidence suggests that its association with institutional aggression is weak at best. The current study examined, via both variable-level and group-level analyses, the relationship between standard violence risk instruments, which included a measure of psychopathy, and institutional violence. Additionally, the incremental validity of dynamic risk factors also was examined. The results suggest that PCL-R was only weakly related to institutional aggression and only then when the behavioral (Factor 2) aspects of the construct were examined. The clinical and risk management scales on the HCR-20, impulsivity, anger, and psychiatric symptoms all were useful in identifying patients at risk for exhibiting institutional aggression. These data suggest that factors other than psychopathy, including dynamic risk factors, may be most useful in identifying forensic patients at higher risk for exhibiting aggression.     

The Dynamic Process Tracing Environment (DPTE) as a Tool for Studying Political Communication

The dynamic process tracing environment (DPTE) is a unique and flexible tool permitting researchers to study information search and decision making in various manners. This article describes the rationale behind the system, some history of how it has revolutionized the study of voter decision making in elections, and some of the principles of design within the system.     

Party system dynamics and the making and breaking of Italian governments

This paper explores the dynamics of the highly fluid Italian legislative party system. It uses the same theoretical approach as the paper by Laver and Kato (this issue) to explore the making and breaking of governments in Italy following electoral reform. Under office-seeking motivational assumptions, the electoral system provides incentives for parties to band together into cartels in order to fight elections, with the winning cartel forming a government coalition. Inter-electoral legislative party competition, however, within a structure of permissive rules on the formation of legislative party groups, provides incentives for at least some members of the winning cartel to defect. The facility with which legislative parties can split and combine in Italy creates a highly dynamic decisive structure underpinning the making and breaking of governments. This cannot usefully be analysed with traditional models that take parties as unitary actors and assume that the party system is essentially fixed for the entire inter-electoral period.     

六部门动态优化模型在吉林老工业基地产业结构优化升级中的运用

产业结构问题是我国当前亟须解决的重大问题,产业结构的优化升级是经济均衡增长的关键。在相关理论方法还不够完善的背景下,构建适合国情的产业结构动态优化的理论与方法,为我国的结构调整提供有价值的参考,将具有深远的理论与实践意义。产业结构动态优化模型体系与吉林省的实证研究相结合,可以发挥区域优势,以科技进步促进产业的结构升级,解决供需结构失衡的深层矛盾。     

A note on electoral competition and turnout in run-off electoral systems: Taking into account both endogeneity and attenuation bias

In this short note, I propose an identification strategy to estimate the causal effect of expected electoral competition on voter turnout in run-off systems taking into account both endogeneity and attenuation bias. I find that electoral competition significantly raises turnout. Not addressing attenuation bias yields estimates that are biased by up to 50%.     

Distinguishing territorial structure from electoral adventurism: The distinct sources of static and dynamic nationalization

Estimates of static nationalization do not always reflect stark qualitative differences between parties. We use a research design oriented around a comparison of sharply different parties—the unstable Democratic Left in Ecuador and the stable Broad Front in Uruguay—to develop the distinctiveness of static and dynamic nationalization. Snapshot measures that only consider a single election suggest that both parties are poorly statically nationalized; but we show that the former case is highly statically nationalized, and that the observed territorial differences arise because it is poorly dynamically nationalized. We adopt the linear mixed modeling approach to reduce the bias in extant estimators. The approach is also informative about the sources of variance in a party's territorial support: relatively stable district attributes account for static nationalization, while features unique to the electoral cycle account for dynamic nationalization. Substantively, our study alters conclusions about parties operating in highly unstable electoral contexts.     

个人所得税法的空筐结构与规范续造

个人所得税法呈现"空筐"外观,实施条例及财税规范性文件循解释执行上位法、依授权制定规则、补充漏洞、创制规则四条进路实施规范续造。地方人大、政府的制度内规则创设权极其有限。税收事项技术性常被作为证成剩余立法权的理由,但此非充要条件。在组织财政收入的传统目标外,调控功能的植入吁求个税规则一定的灵活性。地区间差异使"净额所得"导向的个税规则应有区别,因地制宜的治理实践同样在应然层面消解税权集中的合理性。我国应区分财政目的规范与管制诱导性规范,施以不同程度的法定要求;在纵向适当授权的同时,在横向维度,于四条规范续造路径中分别甄选适于两类规范者。对各类规范续造,都要强化实体和程序控制,并建构审查机制。     

A review of dynamic variables and their relationship to risk prediction in sex offenders

In recent years, a good deal of attention has been paid to the question of recidivism in sex offenders, with an emphasis on the pool of identified static variables associated with risk. The paper aims to review the developing evidence-base for dynamic (changeable) variables, describing their clinical and research characteristics. It also considers the relationship between dynamic domains and apparently fixed developmental variables, such as attachment and victimization experiences. Three main models are presented, and examined in terms of their ability to enhance static prediction models. Results would suggest that there are four dynamic domains, which can predict sexual recidivism independently of static risk prediction, and that these domains should be of central consideration in the continuing development of treatment programmes.     

城市如何创新:概念特征、动力机制与发展方向

城市创新是解决城市经济增长、环境可持续发展、城市安全等问题的关键手段,也是全球城市转型和政府革新的动力源泉。通过研究"创新"与"城市"的概念以及二者之间相互促进的关系,可以界定城市创新的概念及其具有的五个特征:内容的新颖性、行动主体的多样性、场域的公共性、创新范围的复合性、结果的不确定性。继而对"城市创新何以产生"方面,分析了环境要素驱动、行动者驱动、需求-供给驱动的三重驱动逻辑,利用结构功能主义、组织行为学、市场均衡理论三重视角对城市创新的动力机制进行归纳。未来城市创新的研究要更注重城市创新研究的系统性、精细化,对不同城市创新类型的比较研究、城市创新驱动机制的深层次揭示、城市创新效果评估等议题需要给予更多的关注。     

日本防卫政策的调整及其评价

首先通过防卫计划大纲的修改概括分析了日本新防卫政策调整的五个特点,即重点防范对象由俄罗斯转向中国,防卫理念由静态转向动态,军事部署的重心由北方转向南方,安保合作方式由双边转向多边,武器输出限制由严格转向宽松。然后,对这种调整的背景进行分析,认为防卫政策的调整是日本防卫力渐增过程的必然结果,是日本对中国崛起的具体反映,是日本配合美国亚洲战略调整的重要步骤。最后,对这次调整进行了初步评价,认为该调整是对日本战后一直奉行的低调防卫政策的又一次突破,并使东亚合作的进程蒙上了阴影,特别是给中日建立战略互惠关系增添了新的障碍。