Dynamic latent trait models: An application to Latin American banking crises

Dynamic latent trait models combine information from a variety of manifest variables, possibly measured on different scales, that are presumed to be indicators of an unobserved latent phenomenon, while allowing appropriate consideration of the longitudinal character of time series. I use a Bayesian dynamic latent trait model of banking sector financial accounts measured at the country/quarter level to build an indicator of banking system robustness in Latin America. As a methodological innovation, I extend dynamic latent trait models to take into account country-specific effects of bank regulatory regimes through hierarchical modeling of factor loadings. I suggest how these models can be applied to other types of phenomena—for example to combine existing political regime indicators to build a more informative measure of democracy.     

试论知识员工管理的困境与动态协同模式的应用

随着知识经济时代的来临,知识作为最基本的资本要素改变了组织中的人力资源配置结构——从事知识工作的知识员工正逐渐成为组织运营过程的主要参与者和劳动价值的基本创造者。传统人力资源管理模式在管理知识员工时面临着一些困境。动态协同管理模式为组织提供了一种管理知识员工的方法。     

试论市场经济条件下公安队伍以德治警的内涵与动力

警察是社会秩序的维护者和社会公德的化身,因此,以德治警具有十分重要的意义。以德治警的指标体系包括完善的警察道德规范、高尚的警察职业文化和严密的警察职业纪律三方面的内容。以德治警的动力来自于全体民警的共同参与、先进典型的示范和社会舆论的评价等。     

Dynamic risk and protective factors

ABSTRACT

This paper reviews the literature regarding the identification and measurement of risk factors considered imminent precipitants of subsequent criminal conduct (i.e. dynamic risk factors). This paper also frames these risk factors against the so-called protective factors that are presumed to mitigate risk. Commonality among recent dynamic risk and protective measures reflects general agreement regarding viable candidate variables. Empirical studies suggest such factors yield incremental predictive validity and should inform case-formulaic understanding of criminal conduct and pathways to desistance, although this is not common practice. As well, definitional and measurement considerations are not well advanced and speak to the need for further conceptual clarity.     

From dynamic risk factors to causal processes: a methodological framework

ABSTRACT

It is becoming increasingly apparent that dynamic risk factors are unable to function as explanations of offending because they are composite constructs, which contain a mixture of putative causes, states of affairs, and problematic cognitive, affective, behavioural and social states associated with crime. In this paper we draw from psychopathology research and theory on the conception and classification of mental disorders to develop the Dynamic Risk Research Framework (DRRF). In our opinion, the assumptions and methodological tool associated with this framework can better focus research into the causes of offending by making use of the information provided by dynamic risk factors. A conceptual framework such as the DRRF can arguably translate this valuable information into deep, coherent explanations, and ultimately, more streamlined and precise intervention strategies.     

UPLC-MS/MS法检测佐匹克隆及其在大鼠体内动态分布研究

目的建立安眠镇静药佐匹克隆的检测方法及其在大鼠体内动态分布模型。方法实验组大鼠用佐匹克隆橄榄油溶液(47.25mg/kg)灌胃给药,空白对照组大鼠采用橄榄油灌胃,分别于0.5、1、1.5、2.5、5、8、12h后采集心血后处死大鼠,分别取心、肝、肺、脾、肾、胃、大脑组织,采用超高效液相色谱-串联质谱法(UPLC-MS/MS)检测各组织中佐匹克隆的质量浓度。结果佐匹克隆与内标物SKF525A出峰时间分别为1.43、1.6min。各组织中佐匹克隆在5~5000ng/mL(g)线性关系良好。佐匹克隆在10、100、1000ng/mL三个浓度下日间、日内精密度良好,在各组织中平均萃取回收率高。灌胃给药后大鼠各组织中佐匹克隆含量在0.5~1h内呈上升趋势,在1h时达到峰值,在各时间点,佐匹克隆在胃壁组织中含量较其他组织高,心血和大脑组织中相对较少。结论本课题建立的UPLCMS/MS法动态检测大鼠各组织中佐匹克隆的含量具有高效性、可靠性的特点,这对今后法医学案件中涉及到佐匹克隆定性定量检验有一定的参考价值。     

The Sirens' Call of Relative Gains Concerns: A Critical Analysis of Their Presumed Rationality in the Prisoners' Dilemma

The notion that in international interactions state-actors care not only about their own absolute gains, but also about the size of these gains relative to what other actors receive, is one of the pillars on which rests neorealists' pessimism about the prospects of cooperation in repeated Prisoners' Dilemma (PD) and, by extension, in international politics. Although there has been a lively debate over the impact of relative gains concerns on the prospects of cooperation, the prior question, whether states should in fact care about relative gains at all, has not been seriously confronted. This article questions the assumption that rational states should care about relative gains in PD. As the literature motivates them, relative gains concerns are best understood as a heuristic device designed to guide states toward inter-temporal optimization of their absolute payoffs. Using simulated tournaments of a model of a dynamic, multi-player PD, this article puts to the test whether relative gains concerns in fact achieve this purpose. Contrary to what has been presumed, the analysis demonstrates that in many contexts it is harmful and dangerous for states to care about relative gains. Furthermore, whenever states are in a position to tell whether, in a particular setting, it might be rational for them to care about relative gains, the heuristic of relative gains concerns is redundant. The important issues that the literature on relative gains has sought to address should continue to be discussed, but not through the lens of the problematic and misleading conceptual apparatus of relative gains concerns.     

贵州地方政府依法行政动力研究

经过近十年的努力,依法行政有了明显进展,但在外部要求依法行政呼声日益高涨的今天,推进依法行政工作还存在一些不容忽视的问题,那就是政府自身依法行政的动力明显不足,主要表现在推进依法行政工作进展不平衡,工作力度有自上而下呈现逐级递减的趋势。本文以贵州为例进行分析,试图在查找出阻却贵州地方政府依法行政的原因的基础上进行实践性制度设计,激发地方政府,特别是市、县两级基层政府依法行政动力。*     

浅谈维稳思维的转变

传统的维稳模式在道德正义上削弱了政府形象,加速了社会基础秩序和社会价值体系的失范.这就要求转变传统的维稳思维,建立符合社会稳定自身规律的新思维.其具体内容包括:转变政府职能,建立有限政府,避免政府在社会矛盾中处于首当其冲的位置;使法治成为解决冲突的长效手段;建立利益均衡机制,为社会不满情绪的宣泄提供制度化渠道;促进民间...     

30例Wilson病患者动态心电图分析

目的:了解Wilson病(Wilson''s disease,WD)患者的动态心电图异常情况,并分析其发生机制.方法:对30例WD患者的动态心电图特征进行观察分析.结果:WD患者动态心电图主要表现为活动时窦性心动过速(窦速)和休息时窦性心动过缓(窦缓)、偶发房性期前收缩(房早)和室性期前收缩(室早)、房性心动过速、室性心动过速及窦房传导阻滞等,个别心电图异常明显者为病程长且驱铜治疗不正规、神经系统症状严重者.结论:WD患者的动态心电图存在较多异常改变,其发生机制主要为铜在中枢神经系统沉积所致中枢性自主神经功能障碍,铜在心肌沉积所致心肌损害或肝硬化所致代谢性心脏损害.