论“只能根据经验来谈论社会主义”

"只能根据经验来谈论社会主义"是列宁在十月革命以后提出的探索如何建设社会主义的方法.人类文明(包括马克思主义)归根到底是经验的总结.列宁之所以能形成新经济政策的好思路,在很大程度上借助于这个方法.在这个方法中,自觉地认识已有知识的局限是前提;强调从各国的特殊而不是一般出发,是重要的组成部分;如何对待经济生活中的自发力量,是一个关键;活跃党内民主生活,是正确总结经验的重要条件.     

Ghosting phenomenon in static and dynamic footprints in India and the United States

Ghosting is the phenomenon that exists when a footprint has a lighter area around the tip of one or more toes or a shadow-like area at the back of the heel. To date, ghosting has been considered primarily a finding of dynamic (walking) footprints, rather than static (standing) footprints. The prevalence of ghosting in static footprints is unknown, and research on its presence in static and dynamic footprints from the same participant is sparse, as are studies on its occurrence in different geographic populations. This study is among the first to evaluate the occurrence of ghosting in the static and dynamic footprints from a particular individual with participants in two geographic populations.A combination of both inkless and ink footprint collection systems were used to obtain a total of 206 bare footprints from 103 adult participants from the United States and India. The data comprised 103 static and 103 dynamic footprints.Ghosting occurred significantly in static footprints, though less frequently than in dynamic footprints. Ghosting in static footprints was seen most often at the first toe, followed by the third and second respectively. This aspect appeared least at the heel. In dynamic footprints, it occurred most at the first toe, followed by the second and fourth toes, and then the third toe and the heel. The prevalence of ghosting in footprints from the United States and India differed in their locations, notably at the first and second toes in the static footprints and at the heel in the dynamic footprints.     

The contact area of static and dynamic footprints: Forensic implications

When found at crime scenes, footprints may be evidentially valuable and can assist with the identity of a perpetrator based on their features and/or measurements. Footprints can be either static (made while standing) or dynamic (made while walking). While extensive research has been performed on the linear measurements obtained from static and dynamic footprints, research on the comparisons between the contact area of static and dynamic footprints in the forensic context are limited. The present study compares the contact area of static and dynamic bare footprints to determine if statistically significant differences exist between the two. Static and dynamic footprints were obtained from a sample of randomly-selected 461 Jatt Sikh adults (230 males and 231 females) of Indian origin between the ages of 19 and 32 years. The footprint contact area was calculated from each footprint (excluding the toes) using a PedoGRID® sheet. No statistically significant differences were observed between the contact area of static and dynamic footprints for each foot among males and females. However, statistically significant differences between both the sexes were found in the footprint contact areas of both footprint types. The right dynamic footprint contact area was found to be the most predictive measurement for classifying and estimating sex from a footprint’s contact area. The study has implications in the analysis of footprints recovered from crime scenes.     

Dynamic risk and sexual offending: the conundrum of assessment

ABSTRACT

The potential to reduce sexual victimisation, promote community safety, and decrease incarceration costs has resulted in considerable progress in terms of how we understand and predict sexual recidivism. And yet, the past decade has seen a degree of fragmentation emerge as research attention has shifted away from relative risk prediction (with its focus on static risk factors) to the identification of factors capable of reducing risk through intervention (i.e. dynamic risk). Although static and dynamic risk are often treated as orthogonal constructs [Beech, A. R., & Craig, L. A. (2012). The current status of static and dynamic factors in sexual offender risk assessment. Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research, 4(4), 169–185. doi:10.1108/17596591211270671], there are arguments to support a claim that the two are in fact functionally related [see Ward, T. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs. Psychology, Crime & Law (in 22(01–02), 2–16); Ward, T., & Beech, A. R. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: A theoretical dead-end? Psychology, Crime & Law, 21(2), 100–113. This discussion clearly affects how we assess dynamic risk. This review considered several commonly used methods of assessment and the evidence offered for their predictive accuracy. Of note were differences in the predictive accuracy of single psychometric measures versus composite scores of dynamic risk domains and the conventions used for establishing effect sizes for risk assessment tools.     

Challenges for the theory and application of dynamic risk factors

ABSTRACT

The inclusion of dynamic factors in risk assessment measures used with forensic populations has largely been considered an improvement in both the accuracy and utility of these assessments in informing treatment and sentencing. However, there are important challenges associated with the current approach to the conceptualisation, identification, and use of dynamic factors in risk assessment. Whereas some of these challenges relate to applied settings (such as the use of measures with different offender populations), there are also deeper questions regarding the construct validity of dynamic risk measures and the methodological strategies used to identify them. More emphasis on theoretically driven research is needed, to identify causal and explanatory relationships between dynamic risk factors and recidivism. We hope that highlighting these challenges can help to build a consensus on a future research agenda for dynamic risk factors.     

Party system dynamics and the making and breaking of Italian governments

This paper explores the dynamics of the highly fluid Italian legislative party system. It uses the same theoretical approach as the paper by Laver and Kato (this issue) to explore the making and breaking of governments in Italy following electoral reform. Under office-seeking motivational assumptions, the electoral system provides incentives for parties to band together into cartels in order to fight elections, with the winning cartel forming a government coalition. Inter-electoral legislative party competition, however, within a structure of permissive rules on the formation of legislative party groups, provides incentives for at least some members of the winning cartel to defect. The facility with which legislative parties can split and combine in Italy creates a highly dynamic decisive structure underpinning the making and breaking of governments. This cannot usefully be analysed with traditional models that take parties as unitary actors and assume that the party system is essentially fixed for the entire inter-electoral period.     

信息化进程中国际体系与秩序特征探析

人类文明正在从工业化社会迈向信息化社会,世界各国立足于不同的国情,秉持迥异的发展理念与施政方略,在国际舞台上共同演奏了民族国家竞争角逐、合作互惠、兴衰失衡并存的交响曲,共同造就了当代国际战略格局与世界秩序的全新态势.美国作为信息化浪潮的发源地与最为积极踊跃的推动者,赢得了信息化时代全球博弈的最大红利,依托厚重的经济基础和强大的军事实力,成为短期内难以逾越的单极霸权;而其他从两极格局中分离出来的诸强国以及为信息化、全球化浪潮所催生的多种国际行为体在把握机遇、发展实力、蓄势待发的同时,也于不同的领域与层次上对美国霸权形成一定的平衡与制约.单极主导、多元并存无疑成为步入信息化时代之初国际政治体系最显著的标志,但随着信息化浪潮在深度与广度上进一步拓展,在飞跃与调整的交替中不断前行,世界格局多极化、国际关系民主化、国际社会行为体多元化、从传统的"国家间政治"向世界政治乃至"全球政治"转变等趋势初现端倪,作为未来世界的可能性蓝图正逐渐呈现于世人眼前.从美国全球扩张战略的周期看,从20世纪80年代以来经过近30年持续的攻势态势,已经呈现出疲惫的征兆,在次贷危机和金融危机的影响下,美国很可能要进入一个战略休整期,美国在国际体系中的主导地位也将受到一定程度的削弱.     

六部门动态优化模型在吉林老工业基地产业结构优化升级中的运用

产业结构问题是我国当前亟须解决的重大问题,产业结构的优化升级是经济均衡增长的关键。在相关理论方法还不够完善的背景下,构建适合国情的产业结构动态优化的理论与方法,为我国的结构调整提供有价值的参考,将具有深远的理论与实践意义。产业结构动态优化模型体系与吉林省的实证研究相结合,可以发挥区域优势,以科技进步促进产业的结构升级,解决供需结构失衡的深层矛盾。     

"法学"是什么?——比较法视域中的"法学"含义诠释

法学是什么?法学不只是一种知识谱系,它本质上是基于对法的具体场景运用的实践活动的回应。法学是一种知识、一种逻辑、一种学问,却更是一种实践、一种经验、一种解释。从比较法之视域对“法学”之原初含义进行解读,可把它概括为三个判断:法学是公平之学、法学是智识之学、法学是判断与解释之学。     

西方国家公共安全管理的特征及启示——“知识问题”的分析视角

关注“知识问题”是西方国家公共安全管理的重要特征。当前西方国家公共安全管理中存在着公共安全知识的分立化、分散化、局部性、隐蔽性和知识性无知等“知识问题”？解决这些“知识问题”,对我国的公共安全管理具有现实的启迪意义。