Economic voting in a crisis: The Irish election of 2011

The paper explores a question raised by the 2011 Irish election, which saw an almost unprecedented decline in support for a major governing party after an economic collapse that necessitated an ECB/IMF ‘bailout’. This seems a classic case of ‘economic voting’ in which a government is punished for incompetent performance. How did the government lose this support: gradually, as successive economic indicators appeared negative, or dramatically, following major shocks? The evidence points to losses at two critical junctures. This is consistent with an interpretation of the link between economics and politics that allows for qualitative judgements by voters in assigning credit and blame for economic performance.     

中国经济学范式的反思与创新

中国传统经济学的"生产关系范式",不以生产方式为主要研究对象,脱离客观实际,陷入主观主义、形而上学和法学幻想;新时期的"生产关系+资源配置范式"存在严重的逻辑混乱和内在矛盾;现代中国经济学的"生产方式范式",应研究社会主义初级阶段生产方式以及与之相适应的生产关系和上层建筑的基本特征,以马克思主义经济学的科学世界观、方法论与基本原理为指导,吸收、借鉴西方经济学积极成果,坚持从实际出发,以中国问题为导向,形成中国风格和中国特色。     

论经济法的理论基础

任何法部门都要有理论基础。经济法理论基础应当以讲求法意理论、突出经济法特征和承认其他部门法理论基础为立论之本,并从经济法价值层面推衍出来。以往学界关于经济法理论基础的研究还没能够符合这些条件,故诸说成立的根据不充分;而民商法、行政法、社会法等理论基础对于从经济法价值层面推衍的"整体经济效益"的价值取向及覆盖的法内容,又无力支撑。于是,寻找经济法自身的根本理论支撑就十分关键了。笔者研究发现,经济法为了实现"整体经济效益"的价值取向,必须不断解决个体性经营无序带来的"整体"损害问题,于是,经济法配置的整体性经济权应当是限定个体性经营权的职权。笔者将这一理论称为"限权论"并定位为经济法理论基础。这一理论也是在与民商法的"保权论"、行政法的"控权论"、社会法的"扶权论"等理论基础的界分和协调中形成的。     

打造中国—东盟陆路物流枢纽 务实推进中国—新加坡经济走廊建设

广西凭祥综合保税区作为中国西南沿边对外开放重要门户,北部湾经济区保税物流体系的重要枢纽,紧紧抓住推动设立凭祥沿边开发开放国家重点试验区以及推进建设中越凭祥—同登跨境合作区等新的战略机遇,坚持贴边发展,跨境合作,打造中国—东盟陆路物流枢纽,务实推进中国—新加坡经济走廊建设。     

宁夏融入丝绸之路经济带建设的战略选择——兼谈中阿共建丝绸之路经济带

＂丝绸之路经济带＂的战略构想,为宁夏建设成为丝绸之路经济带上的战略支点创造了历史机遇。宁夏要借助中阿共建丝绸之路经济带的契机,发挥中阿博览会的平台效应,坚持务实合作和人文交流,加快自身发展,增强宁夏对外开放的魅力和吸引力。     

区域成本差异对贵州经济发展的影响--少数民族地区经济发展的个案分析

本文是基于一个宏观的研究视角,从国民经济核算的角度,利用投入产出的方法,定量研究贵州作为一个少数民族省域其经济发展成本与全国、东中西三大经济带、七大经济区域之间的差异.依据贵州的省情,采用定性和定量相结合的分析方法,深入探讨影响贵州发展成本的主要因素,以及区域成本差异对贵州经济发展的影响.     

新时代环境下民族地区市场监管的非国家法因素影响——基于黔东南州调查的法社会学分析

文章通过对黔东南州市场监管中非国家法诸因素进行调研,使用法社会学的理论框架分析,展示要素、结构和性能各层面的冲突和相互影响,为民族地区国家法的执行研究提供了一定的现实素材,并尝试性提出了解决民族地区国家法的执行需要在民族区域自治法框架内,充分考虑新时代民族地区诸因素作用,方能有效解决民族地区法律秩序以及社会治理问题。     

Chinese Eastern Industrial Zone in Ethiopia: unpacking the enclave

Abstract

This paper examines China’s engagement with Africa through economic zones (EZs). It moves beyond the conceptualisation of EZs as undifferentiated enclaves of foreign investment to a dynamic perspective on the locally negotiated process of zone development. Such a perspective entails critical unpacking of the specific zone regime to understand the diverse and evolving relationships among different state and non-state actors. Drawing upon empirical research on the Eastern Industrial Zone (EIZ) in Ethiopia, we explore the complex process of learning and adaptation by government, developers, investors, and workers throughout the development of a zone regime, with specific attention to capital–labour and expatriate–local relations. We find that despite the EIZ being a state-level cooperation project, private Chinese developers work diligently with the Ethiopian government to improve the institutional support for EZs. Chinese investors also collectively generate a management regime to enhance their overseas operational capacity and experiment with various tactics to transform local recruits into an industrial workforce. Local workers, with limited protection by official labour unions, turn to individual- and group-based agency to improve their working conditions. Despite the momentum created by multiple stakeholders, there are concerns regarding the long-term contributions of EZs to engender sustained industrial transformation and skills development.     

Alternatives to EU Membership and the Rational Imagination

The domestic scenario following a Brexit vote is likely to be characterised by high stakes, uncertainty and fissile political debate. No off‐the‐peg arrangement touted for Brexit—be it Norwegian, Swiss, Turkish or Canadian—was designed to engage with such a context. Nor does it seem wise to rush to medium‐term commitments which might pre‐empt democratic politics and wise choices. Far more important will be the legitimacy of any institutional settlement governing this arrangement, which will provide the context for its revision and development and the space for democratic reflection over how these policies are to be governed. It will be suggested that here there is much insight to be gained from looking at regional arrangements beyond the EU.     

Forecasting the 2015 British election through party popularity functions

To forecast the May 7, 2015 British General Election, we develop party popularity models based on Continuous Monitoring Survey (CMS) data from April 2004 to February 2015. Our models predict party vote shares three months prior to the election, using previous support levels, national economic evaluations, macro-partisanship and political measures. Our Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) methodology allows us to predict support for the Tories, Labour, Liberal Democrats and “other” parties, separately, yet simultaneously, by constraining total support for all parties to 100%. Our model, estimated with data from February 2015, predicts that Labour will win the highest vote share in Great Britain, but that no party will win a majority of seats in parliament.