中朝经济关系的现状与前景

中国对外开展经贸合作的方针是始终不渝奉行互利共赢的开放战略和"睦邻、安邻、富邻"的周边政策。应当积极支持中国企业"走出去"与朝鲜企业开展互利共赢合作,在世界金融危机到来期间,中国国内民营经济也受到一定冲击,中国一些以出口加工为主业的民营企业纷纷歇业、转产,民间出现大量游资.很多民营企业家将目光瞄向了朝鲜——这块未开发的处女地。利用2009年"中朝友好年"的良机,促进两国经济关系的合作,既符合两国人民的利益,也有利于东北亚和平稳定局面的形成。     

越南——广西提升与东盟合作的重要伙伴

广西与越南的合作在经贸基础、发展战略、合作机制及项目等方面已具备诸多优势,可通过推进项目合作、处理贸易逆差、引导边贸转型升级、加强北部湾合作开发等方面着手,探索与越南合作的新优势和新途径,以越南为支撑点促进与东盟的全局合作。     

俄罗斯在八国集团中的异质性评析

2002年饿罗斯艰难地加入八国集团,但是它与其他成员之间的矛盾重重,在八国集团中的异质性表现越来越突出.八国集团的目标是"自由贸易和民主",根据欧洲智库外交政策中心制定的评估体系进行考核可以发现:俄罗斯的经济规模不利于其加入G8;根据1975年G6成立宣言中列出的承诺与原则,俄罗斯在政治上和经济上都不算是民主和自由的;饿罗斯成为G8成员国是不符合常规的;其他的G8成员国也必须制定出具体的政策,以促使俄罗斯实现其承诺.     

Financing the peace: Evaluating World Bank post-conflict assistance programs

Does World Bank aid to countries damaged by civil conflict meet its stated goals of speeding economic recovery and reducing the risk of conflict recidivism? We contend that the Bank’s success depends on its ability to bolster and signal the credibility of politicians’ commitments to peaceful politics and tailor its programs to the post-conflict environment. In the first systematic evaluation of World Bank post-conflict assistance, we estimate selection-corrected event history models of the effect of Bank programs on recovery and recurrence using an original dataset of all World Bank programs in post-conflict environments. Among key results, we find that the Bank tends to select aid recipients according to their pre-existing probability of conflict recurrence and that, once we control for this non-random selection, the Bank has no systematic effect on either conflict recurrence or economic recovery.     

The undecided voters and the economy: Campaign heterogeneity in the 2005 British general election

Research and conventional wisdom suggest that undecided voters are especially prone to campaign persuasion. Little has been done, however, in the way of uncovering the decision pathways followed by these voters. In this paper we seek to assess the undecided voters’ alleged campaign susceptibility and, most importantly, to explore which campaign considerations inform their final voting decisions. Our central finding is that their behaviour is driven to a larger extent by economic performance and less by leadership or other valence evaluations. This finding has important implications for parties’ campaign strategies in an era where the ranks of undecided voters are steadily expanding from one election to the other.     

Economic voting in Spain: A 2000 panel test

Considerable research shows the economy matters for voters. But that view has come under attack, with revisionists arguing that it matters little. This dissenting view fits the Spanish case well, where reigning research finds virtually no economic voting exists. We argue against the revisionist view, suggesting that conclusion stems largely from methodological limitations in its supporting cross-sectional survey analyses. Given the causality question these analyses raise, particularly in the context of likely endogeneity, a panel analysis is called for. We examine the most recent available panel survey, from the 2000 general election, estimating fully specified multinomial logit models. We find strong economic effects. Spain appears, after all, to have an electorate capable of holding the government economically accountable, at least in this instance.     

行政管理支出、城市化与经济增长的动态计量分析

建立在向量自回归模型的基础上,运用Granger因果关系检验、协整理论和向量误差修正模型分析我国行政管理支出、城市化和经济增长之间的动态关系。结果表明：我国城市化发展滞后于经济发展;城市化水平的提高导致行政管理支出的膨胀。长期来说,三者之间存在稳定的均衡关系,其中,经济增长与城市化水平正相关、与行政管理支出负相关;行政管理支出与城市化水平正相关。短期来说,我国的经济增长和城市化水平都有惯性上升的趋势,其它变量的波动对其影响不显著;短期内行政管理支出也有惯性增长趋势,同时受城市化水平波动的影响;而且,三个变量对上一期非均衡的校正能力都很弱。     

大湄公河次区域经济合作政治信任度研究

进行了12年的大湄公河次区域经济合作与成立时的初衷尚有相当的距离,其中障碍之一是各合作方之间在政治上缺乏信任,而湄公河水资源开发有可能引起的生态环境安全问题是导致各方政治信任度不高的关键所在。目前,促进合作各方在政治上相互信任、真诚合作和高度重视环境安全至关重要。     

辽宁省产业结构与经济增长实证分析

从对辽宁省的产业结构状况及细分的行业结构状况进行实证分析发现:辽宁省的第三产业相对于第一和第二产业而言已经过大,它的增加值对国内生产总值的产出弹性较小,制约了其他产业对国内生产总值的贡献;在细分行业中,辽宁省的整体经济中能最有效地拉动经济增长的是第一产业和第二产业中的建筑业,其次是第三产业中的批发零售餐饮业。     

The Determinants of Economic Sanctions Success and Failure

In this article, we consider the puzzle of whether unilateral or multilateral sanctions are more likely to be successful in changing a targeted state's behavior. Policymakers maintain that multilateral sanctioning efforts will be more likely to succeed, while the majority of empirical academic research suggests otherwise. We present an argument, based on multidimensional spatial models, to explain why multilateral sanctions may not be more effective than unilateral sanctions. We present the basic model and show that they can explain why, in general, multilateral sanctions fail more often than do unilateral sanctions. We also show that the model leads to additional, testable hypotheses. We conduct a simple empirical test of the major hypothesis produced by the spatial application and show that it is consistent with the historical record.