Predicting Institutional Violence among Death Row Inmates: The Utility of the Sorensen and Pilgrim Model

The (Sorensen and Pilgrim, An actuarial risk assessment of violence posed by capital murder defendants. J Crim Law Criminol 90:1251–1270, 2000) actuarial model was developed to predict institutional violence among life-sentenced murderers. However, despite its presentation at capital sentencing, the model has not been validated on death row inmates specifically. This study examined the association between Sorensen and Pilgrim model scores and five types of institutional violence (serious assaults, minor assaults, verbal assault/threats, prison order offenses, and non-violent infractions) among a sample of 155 individuals who had been incarcerated on death row in Texas. Results revealed that risk scores performed better for non-violent infractions than for serious assaults, calling into question the utility of this measure for capital sentencing evaluations.

Adults Usually Believe Young Children: The Influence of Eliciting Questions and Suggestibility Presentations on Perceptions of Children’s Disclosures

Do people realize the danger of asking misinformed children yes–no questions? Study 1 confirmed that disclosures children made during free recall in an earlier suggestibility study were more accurate than disclosures following “yes” responses to yes–no questions, which in turn were more accurate than disclosures following “no” responses. In Studies 2 and 3, college students watched interviews of children and judged the veracity of these three disclosure patterns. Participants generally believed false reports representing the first two patterns, although watching expert testimony that included a videotaped example of a false report reduced trust in prompted disclosures. Results document the need to inform forensic decision-makers about the circumstances associated with erroneous responses to yes–no questions.     

鉴定结论质证与质量控制

鉴定结论的审查判断是鉴定结论适用的核心问题。鉴定结论内涵的“先天科学性”为它披上了天然的证据能力和较高证明力的外衣,但鉴定结论的生成性和主观性要求当事人双方应该对鉴定结论进行质证。质证程序有利于法官认定事实、约束鉴定人的态度和行为以及质量控制的实施。     

Forecasting proportional representation elections from non-representative expectation surveys

This study tests non-representative expectation surveys as a method for forecasting elections. For dichotomous forecasts of the 2013 German election (e.g., who will be chancellor, which parties will enter parliament), two non-representative citizen samples performed equally well than a benchmark group of experts. For vote-share forecasts, the sample of more knowledgeable and interested citizens performed similar to experts and quantitative models, and outperformed the less informed citizens. Furthermore, both citizen samples outperformed prediction markets but provided less accurate forecasts than representative polls. The results suggest that non-representative surveys can provide a useful low-cost forecasting method, in particular for small-scale elections, where it may not be feasible or cost-effective to use established methods such as representative polls or prediction markets.     

论面向社会服务的法医临床学鉴定结论的审查

各级临床医院建立面向社会服务的法医临床学鉴定机构是司法鉴定改革的一项重要举措,人身伤害的法医临床学鉴定涉及医学的各个学科,鉴定內容十分广泛,涉及的问题十分复杂,得出的鉴定结论也受多种因素的影响。所以,鉴定结论作为重要的诉讼证据,必须经过严格审查,经查证属实,才能作为定案的证据。     

基于文献与专家咨询的中医体质舌象特征研究

目的 构建中医体质舌象特征条目池并评价其在体质辨识中的贡献度。 方法 梳理现有文献中中医体质的舌象特征,构建特征条目池,采用德尔菲法专家咨询形成专家共识。 结果 通过22篇文献构建了9种体质104项舌象特征条目池,在此基础上,专家对舌象特征在中医体质辨识的重要性进行打分,形成7种体质20项的专家共识条目,总体评价均值为8.13分,其中血瘀质(8.76分)、痰湿质(8.53分)、湿热质(8.42分)和阴虚质(8.39分)表现出较高的贡献度。 结论 不同体质具有不同的舌象特征,舌象特征对体质辨识具有一定的指导意义,但通过舌象区分体质类型具有一定的难度。     

Can Jurors Recognize Missing Control Groups,Confounds, and Experimenter Bias in Psychological Science?

This study examined the ability of jury-eligible community members (N = 248) to detect internal validity threats in psychological science presented during a trial. Participants read a case summary in which an expert testified about a study that varied in internal validity (valid, missing control group, confound, and experimenter bias) and ecological validity (high, low). Ratings of expert evidence quality and expert credibility were higher for the valid versus missing control group versions only. Internal validity did not influence verdict or ratings of plaintiff credibility and no differences emerged as a function of ecological validity. Expert evidence quality, expert credibility, and plaintiff credibility were positively correlated with verdict. Implications for the scientific reasoning literature and for trials containing psychological science are discussed.     

专家证人模式与司法鉴定模式之比较

专家证人模式与司法鉴定模式是英美法系和大陆法系在解决专门性事实问题上两种不同的模式。两者在法律文化基础、有关专家的诉讼地位和资格、程序启动、质证、证据能力和证明力上都有很大的不同。然而,由于两种模式都存在其固有的缺陷,近年来各国都在进行相应的改革,出现了相互融合和借鉴的趋势。     

论科学证据的审查判断和采信——以鉴定结论为视角

随着科技的发展,事实审理者在诉讼中使用包括鉴定结论在内的科学证据变得日益必要和普遍。但我国对科学证据的审查判断和采信还存在许多问题。因此加强此方面的研究意义重大。     

司法鉴定结论使用中存在问题及解决途径——兼论我国诉讼专家辅助人制度的建构和完善

鉴定结论是司法工作中经常使用的重要证据形式,但在使用中存在诸多问题。这主要是因为当事人及其司法人员缺乏相应的科学技术知识和专门知识不能对鉴定结论进行科学评判。通过建构和完善我国诉讼中的专家辅助人制度就可以从根本上解决鉴定结论运用中存在的那些问题。