It’s no longer the economy,stupid! Issue yield at the 2017 German federal election

Abstract

This article demonstrates that the issue-yield concept is able to predict the electoral strategies of mainstream and challenger parties at the 2017 German federal election. While the electorate of mainstream parties favour valence issues, the Greens and the AfD can gain more by concentrating on socio-cultural positional issues. Relying on a unique survey covering 17 positional issues and 10 valence issues as well as an analysis of Twitter accounts, the article shows that contemporary Germany is characterised by a centrifugal competition on the socio-cultural dimension. At the same time, an asymmetric ideological confrontation persists on the socio-economic dimension, because the Left and the SPD still refer to their traditional welfare issues while the bourgeois parties no longer counter this with a contrasting free-market ideology. Thus, the economy is currently not the decisive issue in German politics. Migration, integration, and other socio-cultural issues are rather driving electoral competition.     

Risk Factors and Drivers of Financial Sustainability in Local Government: An Empirical Study

The current international crisis in public finances has made financial sustainability a key issue for governments. Although the European Union (EU) and other international organisations have recommended governments to monitor demographic and economic variables, few studies have considered the influence of these variables on financial sustainability. This paper seeks to identify and analyse the drivers and risk factors that influence the financial sustainability of local government. The findings identify both risk factors (unemployment and population aged under 16 years) and drivers (budgetary outcome) of financial sustainability, which may constitute a useful basis for decision-taking by managers and policy-makers.     

美国经济霸权与全球经济失衡

当前世界经济发展的一个重要特征,就是全球经常账户失衡,美国的逆差持续扩大,且顺差国主要集中在东亚地区。这种现象的出现,是东亚经济依附于美国经济霸权的必然结果。由于对美国商品市场和金融市场存在着双重依赖,东亚地区成为当今美国经济霸权最重要的支撑者。正是由于双方在世界经济发展中的这种不对称地位,调整失衡的压力将主要由东亚来承担。     

辽宁社会安全科技问题的发展战略研究与规划

文章在辽宁省社会安全相关领域的现状分析基础上,从发展战略的角度,对社会安全科技的有关问题进行了研究,提出了科技问题研究的基本思路和框架。     

Public affairs,issues management and political strategy: methodological approaches that count

This essay reviews the primary methods that have been used to study corporate public affairs, issues management, and corporate political activity (PA/IM/CPA). We identify three tractable areas of research in these areas: (1) the determinants of PAM/IM/CPA; (2) the effects of PAM/IM/CPA on public policy outcomes; and (3) the effects of public policy outcomes on overall firm financial performance. Despite the considerable difficulties in gathering data to test these phenomena, we posit that scholars have made progress in understanding some aspects of these relationships. Still, we conclude that the greatest weakness for the advancement of methodological progress is the lack of a theoretical model describing the PAM/IM/CPA process, which ultimately hinders the ability of empiricists to seek the ‘proper’ data to test such relationships. Copyright © 2001 Henry Stewart Publications     

Autonomy and Control in Australian Agencies: Data and Preliminary Findings from a Cross‐National Empirical Study

This article is developed from data gathered through the analysis of a survey of ‘agencies’ at Commonwealth and Australian Capital Territory (ACT) levels of government, undertaken as the Australian component of a cross‐national empirical study of autonomy and control in non‐departmental public sector organisations. It presents preliminary findings from one part of what is potentially a very important enterprise in comparative research, along with discussion of methodological issues which need to be confronted in many such comparative exercises. The data reveal that Australia agencies have been granted more autonomy than agencies in other countries contributing to this survey, though that autonomy varies markedly across functions such as personnel management and financial management. While the article represents just a snapshot in time in agency autonomy, we believe it provides a robust baseline for future changes in the way agencies are managed in the Australian public sector.     

金融职务犯罪的原因及防范对策

金融职务犯罪已经成为影响金融稳定及金融生态良性循环的重要因素之一。分析其深层次原因,有针对性地构建全方位防范和打击此类犯罪的社会联动机制,做到惩治和预防相结合,方能达到治标又治本的目的。     

关于加强中国热点外交的若干对策思考

目前中国热点外交所面临的挑战和存在的问题,主要反映在思想、理论与实践等领域。为解决这些问题,在思想上,中国要从战略高度对热点外交进行定位,具体表现在要从统筹国际和国内两个大局的高度看待热点外交的战略重要性,要从中国的价值理念与外交政策定位热点外交的指导思想与目标。在理论研究方面,中国要从国家利益、地缘政治、介入和参与的身份与环境要求等角度,对热点问题分类,并建立长效研究机制。在实践方面,中国应通过灵活运用外交基本原则、完善特使制度、增强外交统筹和平衡、加强中美战略对话、加大对伊朗核问题参与力度、创新外援体制、创新公共外交机制,解决当前热点外交面临的紧迫问题。     

韩美同盟的现状:以战略同盟构想为中心

本文旨在以李明博政府的韩美战略同盟构想为中心,对韩美同盟的现状进行探讨。李明博政府正力图将现有韩美安保同盟发展为一揽子战略同盟,以此提升国力。由于面临着霸权的现实性局限,深感全球层面的同盟合作变得更加切合实际的美国奥巴马政府正在接受这一构想,但是对于具体的方案,两国的理解并不完全一致。而这一点正是本文的要旨之所在。     

全球金融风暴下的印尼银行业——基于与1997年亚洲金融危机对比的视角

全球金融风暴自2008年第四季度起波及印尼,总体而言,印尼银行业在本次金融危机中表现稳健,资本充足率(CAR)和不良资产率(NPL)等指标甚至处于历史最佳水平.究其原因:首先,本次金融危机的内在机理有其特殊性;其次,经过亚洲金融危机的洗礼,印尼在宏观经济、银行业实力和政府应变能力等方面均有显著提高.当前,印尼银行业存在的主要问题和风险有:经营水平不高,银行间市场资金严重不均,外资流入过多和实体经济制约等.