Ownership and conditionality in IMF-supported programs: Back to Per Jacobsson’s time

Using a historical case study this article provides an example of how heterogeneity of interests within a government may affect the interplay between country ownership of reforms and conditionality in IMF-supported programs. The case study also highlights how pro-reformers’ preferences may be conditional on reforms advancing their personal agendas. This suggests a new issue to be addressed by formal models of conditionality. Two main themes emerge from the analysis: (a) the importance of a clear hierarchy to unify heterogeneous interests among decision makers; and, (b) a flexible country-tailored approach to conditionality can contribute to domestic ownership of reforms.

中国沿海外商直接投资外移趋势分析

受外商投资区位优势加速变迁,国际经济环境剧烈变动,尤其是全球金融危机冲击实体经济,各国对国际直接投资(FDI)的争夺日趋激烈等因素影响,中国沿海地区劳动密集型制造业的FDI大量外移。减少FDI向国外转移,促进其向内地转移,既有利于沿海发达地区经济结构升级,又有利于推动内地经济发展和对外开放,加快中国工业化进程,增加国内就业机会。促进沿海劳动密集型制造业的FDI内移,必须正视中国二元经济结构的现实,避免工业化进程中好高骛远,选择内地区域中心,形成产业集群效应,拓展产业链条,降低外商投资内地的综合成本。     

Taiwan: An Internal Affair! How China’s Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy Interact on the Taiwan Issue?

Taiwan may be an internal affair but the domestic public opinion is not invited to participate very much in a debate and a decision-making process that have remained confined to the Chinese Communist Party and the military top leadership and, on purpose, involves a very small number of officials and experts. Conservative and nationalist forces do constrain Beijing’s Taiwan policy. And some leaders are tempted to use the Taiwan issue for unrelated domestic or foreign policy purpose. Nevertheless, what is striking is the potential for flexibility in China’s Taiwan policy. While Chinese local governments and companies’ increasing interests in business-as-usual in the Strait and the unbearable cost of any armed conflict tend to narrow the government’s options, concentration of power and the efficiency of the propaganda machine allow it to rather smoothly manage, in particular vis-à-vis the elites’ conservative opinion group as well as its own public opinion, this flexibility.     

Public support for coercive diplomacy: Exploring public opinion data from ten European countries

Scholarship has increasingly acknowledged the importance of public attitudes for shaping the European Union's Common Foreign and Security Policy. Economic sanctions emerged as one of CFSP's central tools. Yet despite the emergence of sanctions as a popular instrument in the EU foreign policy toolbox, public attitudes towards sanctions are yet to be studied in depth. This article explains public support for EU sanctions, using the empirical example of sanctions against Russia. It looks at geopolitical attitudes, economic motivations and ideational factors to explain the variation in public support for sanctions. The conclusion suggests that geopolitical factors are the most important, and that economic factors matter very little. Euroscepticism and anti‐Americanism play an important role in explaining the support for sanctions at the individual level.     

Kantei diplomacy? Japan's hybrid leadership in foreign and security policy

This article operationalizes Japanese leadership in foreign and security policy, specifically the Abe administrations’ consistent China balancing. It will do so to dispel instances of Premier-centered diplomacy and posit that Abe's diplomatic agenda has rested on a ‘hybrid’ policy-making authority, where the leverage enjoyed by the Prime Minister's office (the Kantei) rested on little-appreciated politicized personnel appointments and demotions within the bureaucratic apparatus, specifically the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Moreover, successful Japanese leadership has functioned especially when operating within the scope of the US strategic framework towards East Asia. While structural constraints, such as the ever-present influence of the USA and bureaucratic coordination, may constrain options, effective leadership in foreign policy-making can indeed make a difference within those boundaries.     

Transatlantic cooperation on terrorism and Islamist radicalisation in Africa: the Franco-American axis

Transatlantic cooperation on security has a long history. In Africa, transatlantic cooperation on security is basically between France and the United States. This paper asks why the two former competitors in Africa started to cooperate and also why they are so willing to engage militarily. The central argument in this paper poses that France and the US cooperate because it is indispensable to both parties. To France, the cooperation is indispensable because the US is the only power with sufficient financial means and with sufficient air-lift capacity to transport French and African troops into conflict-ridden countries. To Washington, cooperation with Paris is indispensable because the French authorities have unique access to intelligence and knowledge about large parts of Africa. By applying a foreign policy analysis framework, the paper analyses how perceptions of decision-makers, the role of personality and leadership, the role of government institutions and political systems have impacted the relevant decisions. It is emphasised that the two different decision-making systems – the French “state dominated” and the American “society dominated” – produce the same result, namely collaboration. It suggests that the perception of a serious threat from terrorism and Islamist radicalisation overrules differences in decision-making systems.     

Determinants of foreign direct investment and entry modes of Polish multinational enterprises: A new perspective on internationalization

This study uses firm data to examine the locational trends of foreign direct investment projects undertaken by Polish companies. The findings of the study are consistent with the evolutionary models of internationalization. Companies in the early stages of internationalization are motivated by markets and resource seeking, whereas efficiency seeking and strategic asset seeking are significant motivators in the advanced stages of internationalization. However, our results with respect to Polish cross-border acquisitions by service companies and greenfield foreign direct investments by industrial or manufacturing companies did not confirm the evolutionary model findings. We found evidence that, in both cases, investments are motivated by the need for efficiency or strategic assets.     

东盟东增长区的发展与引资成效

自20世纪90年代初以来,东盟次区域经济合作非常活跃,先后出现了新加坡、马来西亚柔佛和印尼的廖内群岛等组成的"新柔廖增长三角",又被称为"东盟南增长三角";印尼、马来西亚、泰国相邻部分组成的"东盟北增长三角";文莱、印尼、马来西亚和菲律宾相邻部分组成的"东盟东部经济增长区(简称东盟东增长区)"等.这些由东盟各国自愿组成的各种增长三角已成为东盟进行合作的重要形式,促进了东盟各国间经济联系和相互合作,带动了贸易和投资的发展.本文选取东盟区域内最大的、最年轻的东盟东增长区,分析其带动资本流动的效果,探讨其发展成效.     

基于中医传承辅助系统分析王任之治疗中风后遗症用药经验

目的 应用中医传承辅助系统(V2.5)软件分析新安医家王任之治疗中风后遗症的用药经验。 方法 将收集整理的王任之治疗中风后遗症的处方,录入“中医传承辅助系统”,采用规则分析、改进互信息法等数据挖掘方法,分析其治疗中风的用药经验。 结果 王任之治疗中风后遗症常用的药物有黄芪、当归、干地龙、鸡血藤、红花、葛根、制豨莶草、炒怀牛膝等。常见的药物组合有：黄芪配伍当归、黄芪配伍干地龙、当归配伍干地龙、黄芪配伍当归和干地龙、鸡血藤配伍黄芪、红花配伍黄芪、红花配伍当归。 结论 王任之在鉴别诊断出血性中风和缺血性中风的基础上,首辨证候虚实,实证常用调气活血、熄风通络法,虚证则用益气活血和络法,多以益气活血、养血通络、补益肝肾药物组方。