Maximum likelihood estimation of structural VARFIMA models

This paper considers the maximum likelihood estimation of a class of structural vector autoregressive fractionally integrated moving-average (VARFIMA) models. The structural VARFIMA model includes the fractional cointegration model as one of its special cases. We show that the conditional likelihood Durbin–Levinson (CLDL) algorithm of Tsay (2010a) is a fast and reliable approach to estimate the long-run effects as well as the short- and long-term dynamics of a structural VARFIMA process simultaneously. In particular, the computational cost of the CLDL algorithm is much lower than that proposed in Sowell (1989) and Dueker and Startz (1998). We apply the CLDL method to the Congressional approval data of Durr et al. (1997) and find that the long-run effect of economic expectations on Congressional approval is at least 0.5718, which is over twice the estimate of 0.24 found in Table 2 of Box-Steffensmeier and Tomlinson (2000). This paper also tests the divided party government hypothesis with the CLDL algorithm.     

中国化妆品动物试验立法完善——与欧盟立法比较

对化妆品进行安全性评价及数据分析，离不开动物试验。欧盟最早通过立法规范化妆品动物试验，对他国相关立法具有重要的指导和借鉴意义。中国作为世界第三大化妆品市场，如果不禁止化妆品动物试验，不仅将面临化妆品动物福利贸易壁垒，而且无法进口未经动物试验的化妆品。中国应通过立法鼓励化妆品生产商使用动物“替代方法”研发新产品，并逐步禁止化妆品动物试验。     

以“4+3”管理手段为载体 探索采油厂基层队内部市场管理新途径

大庆油田有限责任公司第三采油厂在基层单位运用市场手段,探索实施"4+3"内部市场管理法。"4+3",即构建4个内部模拟市场,完善三项配套措施。实行"4+3"内部市场化管理模式两年来,基层队发生了深刻变化:员工自觉性明显提高;员工学习技术热情明显提高;员工挖潜增效意识明显提高;基层生产管理水平明显提高。     

From voter ID to party ID: How political parties affect perceptions of election fraud in the U.S.

This paper uses a survey experiment to assess what individuals understand about election fraud and under what circumstances they see it as a problem. I argue that political parties are central to answering both these questions. Results from the 2011 CCES survey suggest respondents are able to differentiate between the relative incentives of Democrats and Republicans where fraud tactics are concerned, but whether voters see these tactics as problematic is heavily influenced by partisan bias. The results show little support for the notion that partisan ideology drives fraud assessments, and suggest support for the idea that individual concerns for fraud are shaped a desire for their preferred candidate to win. These results offer insights that might be applied more broadly to questions of perceptions of electoral integrity and procedural fairness in democracies.     

关于一类半无限多目标规划离散型算法的偏差估计

本文将文献[5]中的偏差估计公式推广到有任意多个目标函数和α∈(0, ∞)的情形并给出约束参数集维数可任意的数值例子.     

学习“三个代表”的重要思想坚持全心全意依靠工人阶级的指导方针

江泽民同志提出的"三个代表",深刻揭示了在建设有中国特色的社会主义的整个历史进程中,党要始终不渝地坚持全心全意依靠工人阶级指导方针的历史必然性,既是对马克思主义党建理论的继承和发展,也是对马克思主义工运理论的继承和发展.     

一种基于Otsu算法的印章二值化算法

本文提出了一种基于Otsu算法的印章二值化法.该算法通过对算法的改进,考虑了印章图象象素的灰度分布值和它们邻域象素的平均灰度值分布情况.并不是用于整幅印章图象,而是用于分块的印章图象.实验证明,该算法适合印章的二值化处理.     

Keine Unterbrechung eines Unterhaltsvorschussverfahrens durch Konkurs des Schuldners

Die Er?ffnung des Schuldenregulierungsverfahrens über das Verm?gen des Unterhaltsschuldners führt nicht zur Unterbrechung eines Unterhaltsvorschussverfahrens.     

物联网:拉动经济增长的新"引擎"

1995年,比尔·盖茨在《未来之路》一书中曾经提及物联网的概念,由于当时网络终端技术的局限使得这一构想无法真正实现。2005年11月17日,在突尼斯举行的信息社会世界峰会上,国际电信联盟（I-Tu）发布了＂ITu互联网报告2005：物联网＂,正式提出了物联网的概念。转眼几年,随着3G网络的建设,物联网再次登场,变成了经济危机后各国关注的焦点,都希望其成为拉动经济增长点的新＂引擎＂,由此掀起了新一轮的信息产业浪潮。本文将试从物联网概念、产生背景及发展前景等方面进行初步探讨。