Economic globalization and voter turnout in established democracies

This paper asks whether international economic integration negatively affects electoral turnout. The theoretical model builds on the premise that economic integration constrains the ability of national governments to shape outcomes. Citizens are conscious of such constraints and take them into account when considering the costs and benefits of casting a vote in national elections. The result is a lower inclination to vote under conditions of high economic integration. Consequently, aggregate turnout is lower the more internationally integrated a national economy is. Analysis of aggregate data for parliamentary elections in 23 OECD democracies over the period 1965–2006 robustly supports this hypothesis. The empirical estimates suggest economic globalization as a central cause of the general decline in turnout within established democracies.     

The dynamic political economy of support for Barack Obama during the 2008 presidential election campaign

In recent years, students of voting behavior have become increasingly interested in valence politics models of electoral choice. These models share the core assumption that key issues in electoral politicds typically are ones upon which there is a widespread public consensus on the goals of public policy. The present paper uses latent curve modeling procedures and data from a six-wave national panel survey of the American electorate to investigate the dynamic effects of voters’ concerns with the worsening economy—a valence issue par excellence—in the skein of causal forces at work in the 2008 presidential election campaign. As the campaign developed, the economy became the dominant issue. Although the massively negative public reaction to increasingly perilous economic conditions was not the only factor at work in 2008, dynamic multivariate analyses show that mounting worries about the economy played an important role in fueling Barack Obama’s successful run for the presidency.     

The campaign dynamics of economic voting

This paper considers the relationship between election campaigns and the impact of economic evaluations on vote choice. The motivation is the standard expectation that the campaign generally serves to amplify the significance of economic considerations in the voter's calculus—to focus his/her attention on this “fundamental” element of the electoral decision. Drawing on survey data from ten national elections across four countries (Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States) and applying both parametric and semi-parametric statistical techniques, the paper finds no support for this proposition. The paper reflects on the significance of this conclusion for work on political learning during election campaigns, the literature on economic voting, and the study of electoral behaviour more generally.     

多区域经济合作下广西与东盟各国人才交流与合作开发思考

区域经济合作,必然要求区域人才交流与合作开发。广西作为中国与东盟等区域经济合作的＂桥头堡＂的地位和作用日益彰显,如何加强与东盟各国的人才交流与合作开发是当前广西人才开发面临的重大战略任务。本文试分析广西与东盟各国人才交流与合作开发的现状和存在问题,从而提出进一步加强广西与东盟各国人才交流与合作的对策措施。     

广西与越南的教育合作与交流

近年来,广西与东盟的教育合作与交流呈持续增长的态势。本文主要介绍广西与越南教育合作与交流的情况。     

东亚-北美经济失衡与再平衡分析

本文从国别结构和产品结构分析了20世纪90年代以来东亚—北美经济失衡的变化,认为美国贸易逆差不断扩大是其对外产业转移的结果,东亚地区贸易顺差与日俱增是其承接产业转移的结果。其中,东亚内部再次产业转移导致中国顺差迅速膨胀。为了实现东亚—北美经济再平衡,美国需要采取一些措施扩大出口,控制过度的信贷消费,并对美元采取更加负责的政策;东亚地区需要努力实现由外需驱动型向内需驱动型增长方式的转变,加快产业调整与升级,并把产业链向其他地区延伸。     

东亚安全:合作模式与结构

在安全体簇生的东亚地区,并存有美国主导的东亚联盟体系式安全合作、东盟地区主义式安全合作、中国倡行的多边协治式安全合作等三种安全合作模式,其中,美国的东亚联盟体系式安全合作模式在复合型的东亚安全结构中占据主导地位,而东盟和中国所倡行的安全合作模式,还停留在安全合作观念倡导和通过集体联合来尝试性建构地区制度性安全纽带的层面。东亚地区所存在的三种安全合作模式之间,是一种不平等的权力相互制衡关系。再加上地区范围内大国间的结构性对抗和潜在冲突,东亚安全困境的产生和存在成为必然。东亚目前不具备建构地区多边安全合作机制的可能,三种安全合作模式的共存仍将是地区安全结构的主要内容,复合型的安全结构态势将长期存在。     

反思金大中政府的对朝政策

1998年金大中政府执政后,在总结历届政府处理和解决对朝政策的经验教训、全面分析朝鲜半岛形势和国际形势的现状和发展趋势的基础上,提出了旨在维护和促进朝鲜半岛和平稳定的对朝"和解、合作"政策.在朝韩共同努力下第一次实现了两国首脑会晤,签署了<南北共同宣言>,使南北交流与合作得到一定程度的进展,并稳定了朝鲜半岛和东北亚地区的局势.     

关于强化大连在环渤海经济圈融合中的竞争地位论证

国家已经做出了环渤海经济圈整体开发的战略部署,并且在落实进程中逐步成长为中国第三大经济增长极.而着眼于环渤海经济圈整体开发的现实进程,以大连为核心城市的辽宁沿海经济带,与京津冀沿海经济带、山东半岛沿海经济带相比,却处于相对的弱势地位.在辽宁沿海经济带开发上升为国家战略之际,大连必须带头改变这种弱势地位,强化和提升在环渤海经济圈融合中的竞争实力与竞争地位.为此,需要认证大连强化在环渤海经济圈融合中竞争地位的时代背景,分析大连强化在环渤海经济圈融合中竞争地位的综合因素,明确大连强化在环渤海经济圈融合中竞争地位的利益取向,创意大连强化在环渤海经济圈融合中竞争地位的推进对策:打破传统行政界线,提高区域合作意识;积极改善投资环境,强化城市服务功能;抓紧实施品牌战略,注重打造城市品牌;准确进行港口定位,促成联动发展格局;大力调整产业结构,增强综合经济实力;坚决克服地区封锁,造就市场利益关系;构建区域商贸体系,推动区域共同发展.大连只有这样做,才能切实为邓小平确立的"东北之窗"使命和创建东北亚重要国际航运中心的国家战略做出循名贲实的努力.     

论李明博政府的实用主义外交

李明博政府上台后推行实用主义外交政策,主要包括以服务于"先进化国家"为宗旨,强化韩美同盟关系、开启对日关系"新思维"、调整对朝政策、奉行有限度的"平衡"外交、积极开展对华经贸关系、对俄能源外交以及全球外交等.实用主义外交是基于国际和国内、历史与现实、社会与个人等多种因素考虑的结果.实用主义外交面临着美韩同盟利益与韩国民族利益的冲突、韩日之间的结构性矛盾、对朝政策的有效性以及李明博政绩认可度等挑战,其效果还有待于进一步观察.