On our terms! How domestic elites localised the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala

Abstract

In summer 2004, an UN-sponsored international rule of law commission based on an initiative of the Guatemalan human rights community was rejected by Guatemalan political elites. In 2007, a new version, the International Commission against Impunity (CICIG), was approved by the Guatemalan Congress and has since been active in the country, supporting the modernisation of the Guatemalan judicial system and the investigation and prosecution of criminal networks. The CICIG has been hailed as part of a new generation of rule of law promotion that addresses the problems of post-conflict states. How did this change in elite support come about? Neither increased pressure from the international community nor changes in the elite groups in power can fully explain this shift. Rather, Guatemalan elites actively reshaped the commission; in addition, the human rights community reframed it to better fit the risk perceptions of the general public.     

Delegating Terror: Principal–Agent Based Decision Making in State Sponsorship of Terrorism

State sponsorship of terrorism, where a government deliberately provides resources and material support to a terrorist organization, is common in the international system. Sponsorship can provide significant strategic and political benefits for a state, but there are inherent international and domestic risks associated with delegating foreign policy to these actors. Using principal–agent analysis, I develop a model that evaluates the impact of potential costs and benefits on a state’s decision to sponsor terrorism. I test my model by using a novel dataset on sponsorship behaviors that ranges from 1970 to 2008. The results of my analysis support the validity of the principal–agent model in explaining sponsorship, as states will be more likely to engage in sponsorship when the strategic benefits of weakening the targeted state are high and the risks of international reputation loss and domestic dissatisfaction are low.     

Political attitude estimation through Facebook like: a South Korean case study

Recently numerous studies are conducted to estimate the human personality from the online social activities. This paper develops a comprehensive model for political attitude estimation leveraging the Facebook Like information of the users. We designed a Facebook Crawler that efficiently collects data overcoming the difficulties in crawling Ajax enabled Facebook pages. We show that the category level selection can reduce the data analysis complexity utilizing the sparsity of the huge like-attitude matrix. In the Korean Facebook users’ context, only 28 criteria (3% of the total) can estimate the political polarity of the user with high accuracy (AUC of 0.82).     

A failure of governmentality: why Transparency International underestimated corruption in Ben Ali’s Tunisia

This article critiques the Foucauldian approach to governance indicators. Transparency International’s (TI) Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) underestimated Tunisian corruption levels under President Ben Ali: his regime was highly corrupt but foreign investors were less affected. CPI methodology meant it reflected primarily the needs of foreign investors. The Foucauldian approach specifically excludes analysis of governance indicators’ methodologies. It thus fails to demonstrate the effectiveness of governance indicators as a technology of government, and it fails to show how the production of the CPI is embedded in a wider global political economy.     

Taiwan in the Caribbean: a case study in state de-recognition

The rich and complex recent International Political Sociology (IPS) literature on state recognition has completely ignored the process of de-recognition. The present article uses the case study of Taiwan’s efforts to preserve its ‘diplomatic allies’ in the Caribbean in order to fill this gap. Taking advantage of the IPS development of the constitutive theory of recognition, it introduces and analyses the concept of state de-recognition while emphasizing the deep contradiction between present international law principles and the political reality of national identity building as well as the de-linking of political science and international law understandings of recognition made possible by the progress of the constitutive theory. De-recognition is perceived as resulting in a hierarchical relationship between recognized and de-recognized political entities that is arbitrary and ethically questionable as it ultimately reflects the denial of the right to self-determination of peoples.     

International Disorder and China's Strategic Thoughts

Since the 2008 international financial crisis,international political and economic disorder has become obvious.Major reasons are the decline of US-led Western developed economies' global influence;US and other Western countries inaction or ineffective actions;power diffusion allowing non-state actors to intervene;a global governance short of needed rules;and mainstream economic theory's overemphasis on market roles.International disorder is a long-term process posing a potential threat to China' s national interests.The situation challenges China to create an international economic and trade order,thereby shaping itself as prophet of global free trade,shaper of international economic and trade rules,and trendsetter for globalization.     

从韩国传统公私观看其近代民族国家建设问题

现代民族国家诞生于欧洲的特殊历史背景下,其背后是民族主义的竞争逻辑,因此它亦拥有巨大的国家动员能力。近代时期,东亚三国之要务在于建成现代民族国家以抵御外侮,但唯有日本获得成功,中韩两国均遭遇重大挫折。思想观念上的一个重要原因在于中韩两国与日本传统公私观的不同。在思想与政治上受到中国巨大影响的朝鲜王朝,其超越狭隘民族意识的儒家"天下为公"思想使其在现代民族国家和现代国际体系的竞争逻辑面前表现出诸多不适应。但这种看似具有时代局限性的普遍主义思想,或许却能够为解决今天东亚地区的各种悬案提供一些思想资源,成为新的国际关系形态的指导精神。     

石原现象及其成因分析

石原现象是日本国内政治环境整体"右倾化"的具体表象之一,以其所代表的右翼势力为主要依托,其主要特点是思想上体现右倾与民族主义情结,行为上进行组织整合、企图问鼎国家政权,在政策主张上修宪、改变国家制度以及外交上的排外反华等;其产生与持续演化,受到日本的经济萧条、政党制度、社会思潮与日本文化的特性等诸多因素共同作用。石原现象不仅冲击了日本政局、毒化了日本社会,也严重损害了中日关系,必须引起重视与警惕。在安倍当政且日本第三极势力崛起后,注重研究石原现象是审视日本内政外交之间多元互动、应对日本在整个国际格局中非良性作用渗透的重要参照物。     

台湾的大学生对《两岸服务贸易协议》的看法

2014年3月18日,台湾的学生以及社会团体因为反对两岸服贸协议,进而占领“立法院”,并发起一连串的示威与抗议活动。本研究运用定群追踪数据,以网络民调方式访问台湾地区大三的学生对两岸服贸协议的看法。初步发现：大学生对于服贸协议的态度,受到其政党倾向、统“独”立场以及“台湾人认同”的影响。不过,本研究运用政治情绪的测量也发现：台湾的大学生对于台湾的愤怒与对中国大陆的愤怒,让他们反对两岸服贸协议,但当他们对中国大陆抱持希望时,仍然支持两岸服贸协议。因此,中国大陆的崛起及繁荣与发展,既让台湾的大学生对于台湾的现况感到愤怒,确也对中国大陆充满憧憬。     

A history of sex and the state in Southeast Asia: class,intimacy and invisibility

This essay offers a history of international marriages that questions the definition of marriage and what it meant to belong, as a legal subject or citizen, to a colonial state in Southeast Asia. European imperial states deployed monogamous marriage alongside other weapons of empire as a justification for intervention into Southeast Asian societies. With monogamous marriage came also European notions of belonging that traced surnames and legal subject status (later citizenship) via husbands and fathers. The ramifications for individuals in international marriages between Asian women and European men are well known. However, the vast majority of ‘international marriages’ were not those between colonial Europeans and Southeast Asian women, but between Southeast Asian women and lower class Asian men from India and China. Colonial states ignored or failed to register these lower class intra-Asian intimacies because their unions did not threaten colonial rule so long as they ensured a continuous pool of labor and promoted the colonial economy. Unlike recent theories which argue for an omniscient state that penetrates into the personal lives of its populations, this essay maintains that states intensely regulated marriage and belonging for some subjects but not for others. This longstanding unevenness in the management of intimate unions provides a historical context for understanding shifts in the marital regimes of contemporary postcolonial states. Taking a long-term view, the essay asks if recent increases in international marriages might be better understood as spikes rather than as absolute increases resulting from ‘globalization’. A historical framework ties the rise and fall of international marriage to early modern trade patterns, imperialism's labor requirements, war, and the recent demand for labor that has arisen from low birth rates and economic changes. Each of these ‘events’ entailed a large-scale movement of populations which resulted in the development of intimate unions.