Selection Effects and Deterrence

The empirical question of how often deterrent threats issued during international disputes succeed has been hotly debated for years, with some researchers arguing that virtually no robust cases of success can be identified. I argue that what appears to be an empirical and methodological debate actually arises from the inadequacy of classical rational deterrence theory, which fails to comprehend the implications of states' strategic self-selection into international disputes. Rational self-selection is shown to imply that in a sample of crises, deterrent threats issued after an initial challenge will tend to fail in precisely those cases where they are relatively most credible signals of an intent to resist with force. The product of a selection effect, this paradoxical implication allows a resolution of the debate on the efficacy of deterrence in crises. And because selection effects can arise whenever a historical "case" is the product of choices by actors who also influence the outcome in question, this example from the study of deterrence has broad relevance for empirical research.     

"New Wars" and Rumors of "New Wars"

Recently, there has been a growing tendency to suggest "new" classes of wars that are presumably different from all wars we have known and studied. In this article, we discuss the extent to which the landscape of armed conflict has changed so dramatically that it has necessitated a revision of the prevalent typology of war, a reconsideration of the correlates of war, and a reconceptualization of the theoretical assumptions regarding the etiology of war. While it is clear that patterns of warfare shift across time and space, it is not clear that war itself has changed "fundamentally" and has become inexplicable in light of theoretical arguments in world politics as many "new war" theorists suggest. Our analysis demonstrates that many of the "new wars" are simply amalgamations of various interstate, extrastate, and intrastate wars-i.e., the "old wars"-that have been lumped into a single category. The result is a hodgepodge of armed conflicts whose different correlates derive from their diverse morphologies rather than their novelty as wars unlike any we have experienced previously.     

Global Credit Markets,Political Violence,and Politically Sustainable Risk Premia

How do international financial conditions affect civil unrest? Existing studies examine the domestic economic roots of political violence but say little about the role of external financial conditions. We explore the interactions between international lending, government policy, and domestic unrest. In particular, we note that because of sovereign risk and defensive lending dynamics, credit ratings and interest rate premia are endogenous to expectations about civil violence. We test these claims using instrumental variables techniques and daily data on sovereign bond yield spreads, credit ratings, and episodes of civil violence in 59 developing countries from 1990 through 2004. After correcting for endogeneity, we find that exogenous increases in the price of foreign capital are robustly associated with increased odds of civil conflict. Primary commodity dependence, low economic growth, and poverty can also increase the odds of civil conflict by reducing access to foreign capital.     

Digital identity – From emergent legal concept to new reality

Over the past decade, digital identity has gone from a largely unrecognized emergent legal concept to something that is now well known, but still not fully understood. Most individuals now know that they have a digital identity but its legal nature, its transactional functions, and its implications now and for the future, are not generally well understood.This article tracks the emergence of digital identity from the time it was recognized as a new legal and commercial concept to the present time; and outlines its impact and significance for individuals, governments, the private sector and even what is means to be a nation and a citizen in the digital era. The author recounts her experience in recognizing the implications of digital identity in 2006 to its current importance and the implications of future evolutions including an international digital identity, the groundwork for which is being laid now.     

国家与国际组织互动关系的“委托-代理”解释框架

在百年未有之大变局叠加新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的冲击下,作为全球治理主干的众多国际组织面临着深度调整。在这一背景下,厘清主权国家与国际组织的互动机理,深入研究并思考中国应如何主动介入和引导国际组织的变革,已经成为具有重要战略价值的课题。与长期以来主导国际组织研究的主流国际政治理论不同,源于经济学的“委托-代理”理论为分析成员国与国际组织之间的复杂关系和互动逻辑提供了启发性视角。在国家与国际组织复杂的“委托-代理”模型下,国际组织的行为与政策偏好将综合取决于成员国、成员国在国际组织内部的代表、国际组织的秘书处和行政首长等主要行为体在国际组织的决策过程中处于什么位置以及能够施加多大影响。这为我们更全面地认识国际组织,提升我国在国际组织中的影响力与话语权带来了启示。     

Land Reform: Unfulfilled Obligation in Southern Africa and Beyond

ABSTRACT

Land reform remains a relevant but contentious issue in southern Africa. It nearly caused the collapse the Southern African Development Community (SADC) after its tribunal ruled against the Zimbabwe land reform programme (which resulted in the removal of white settlers from land they had occupied for decades and, in some cases, for over a century). The major challenge for southern Africa and most of the African continent is to untangle itself from the provocative and salient legacy of social, economic and psychological apartheid on its territory for almost a century without disrupting development endeavours (Chigara 2012). This article exposes the theoretical foundations influencing the powers at play that compromise most of the efforts that have been directed at trying to facilitate transitions from colonialism and its legacies to societies egalitarian. Land rights have suddenly become very important and it appears that these rights only apply to those whose ownership of land has been legitimised by colonialism. The article recommends the application of already existing legal frameworks at domestic, regional, continental and global levels to meaningfully engage land reform challenges that confront SADC and the continent of Africa as whole as a consequence of the general non-compliance to the rule of law and justice itself.     

论我国监狱制度下罪犯的适当生活水准权——以国际人权公约为视角

适当生活水准权作为国际人权公约规定的一项基本人权,具有丰富的内涵和其自身的特殊性.在我国监狱制度下,罪犯享有适当生活水准权是不断提高的.同时,我们要努力完善监狱制度,进一步改善监狱设施,加强监狱法制建设,使罪犯权利的保护符合国际人权公约的要求.     

国家与国际刑事法院的国际合作与司法协助义务述评

国际刑事法院是否成功的关键取决于《罗马规约》的缔约国和国际社会与之真诚的国际合作与司法协助。反之 ,国家也应根据国际法的基本原则善意履行其自愿承担的义务 ,向国际刑事法院提供国际合作与司法协助。本文通过阐述《罗马规约》有关国家与国际刑事法院的国际合作与司法协助方面的实体性和程序性规定 ,说明国家在国际刑事法院调查、起诉和惩治国际社会关注的最严重的国际犯罪中的作用和义务     

论中国国际商事仲裁的法律适用问题

我国在认定国际商事仲裁协议的效力时 ,应适用或参照《纽约公约》的规定 ,可仲裁的争议事项范围尚有待扩大。我国一些仲裁机构的仲裁规则也已有限地赋予了当事人对仲裁程序法律适用的选择权 ,“非内国仲裁”理论的某些合理内容 ,我们可以考虑借鉴吸收。我国关于国际商事仲裁实体法的适用 ,以有限制的意思自治原则和最密切联系原则为主 ,但不得违背我国强行法的规定。基于我国国际商事仲裁法律适用的现状 ,仲裁法的修改目标之一应该是使我国至少成为对外商有一定吸引力的一个新兴的国际商事仲裁中心 ,使仲裁程序更加简捷 ,以便利当事人