Desistance or Displacement? The Changing Patterns of Offending from Adolescence to Young Adulthood

Research has devoted substantial attention to patterns of offending during the transition to early adulthood. While changes in offending rates are extensively researched, considerably less attention is devoted to shifts in the type of offending displayed during the transition to adulthood. Changes in the type of offending behavior suggest a pattern of “displacement” or shifts between various types of crime, rather than desistance from deviant behavior. In this paper, I integrate methods previously developed in stratification research and use longitudinal data from the National Survey of Youth that span the transition to adulthood to examine the extent to which desistance and displacement of deviant behavior are defining attributes of offending during the transition to early adulthood. The findings indicate that while desistance is clearly present, altering patterns of offending, or within-person displacement, rather than termination of illicit activity is most evident in the data.

东盟跨境数据流动治理的机制构建

跨境数据流动是全球数字经济的重要基础,也是全球治理的新兴议题。在数字经济发展和东盟区域一体化的趋势下,东盟从统筹数字经济发展与数据保护入手,着眼于提升东盟国际竞争力和话语权,制定并完善跨境数据流动治理机制。这一机制的构建始于新加坡对数据保护规制的探索,基于东盟个人数据保护框架,在东盟数字一体化总体框架下制定数字管理框架,并以“东盟示范合同条款”和“东盟跨境数据流动认证”两大关键手段促进机制落实。该机制具有灵活性、包容性和指导性的特征,有利于促进东盟地区数字经济发展,降低谈判成本与合规成本,获得更多全球竞争优势。对于中国而言,在与东盟跨境数据流动治理机制合作对接方面具备可能性和可行性,需要充分认识和评估东盟机制对世界数字治理的影响、对地区数字经济秩序的挑战,推动中国与东盟之间的数字经济合作。     

关于促进欠发达地区人才流动的思考

人才是一个国家经济和社会发展的重要战略资源,更是经济欠发达地区摆脱贫困、实现跨越式发展的关键。人才流动无论是在国家之间还是地区之间,都是加快人力资本积累进而促进经济社会发展的一个重要机制,是市场经济发展客观规律的必然要求。本文分析了欠发达地区人才流动的重要性及影响人才流动的不利因素,提出了促进欠发达地区人才流动的建议,即以经济结构转变吸引人才,以高质量社会服务水平支持人才流动,以政府政策导向引导人才流动。     

海峡两岸资本琉动现状与问题分析

顺应国际国内经济区域化的潮流,建设海峡西岸经济区。在这一发展战略指导下,加强两岸的金融合作与交流显得尤为重要。文章着重分析了海峡两岸资本流动的现状及存在的问题,并提出几点促进海峡两岸资本项目领域合作与发展的政策建议。     

“源”与“流”：关于马克思主义中国化内涵的解读

马克思主义有原生形态与次生形态之分.原生形态马克思主义是"源",次生形态马克思主义是"流".马克思主义中国化语境中的"马克思主义"指的是原生形态的马克思主义.马克思主义中国化是马克思主义获得中国形态和内容与转换中国传统文化和人类其它优秀文明成果两个过程的汇合,其结果是中国化的马克思主义.中国化的马克思主义还有着一个自身理论流变的问题.中国化的马克思主义对马克思主义起到了丰富和发展的作用.     

Studies into exfoliation and coating of Egyptian blue in methanol for application to the detection of latent fingermarks

We have recently demonstrated that coated exfoliated Egyptian blue powder is effective for detecting latent fingermarks on a range of highly-patterned non-porous and semi-porous surfaces. In this extension of that work, we present our studies into an alternative approach to prepare exfoliated Egyptian blue coated with cetrimonium bromide and Tween® 20 using a simpler technique. The quality of the latent fingermarks developed with these exfoliated powders and the commercial powder were compared in a comprehensive study. Depletion series of natural fingermarks from a wide range of donors (12 males and females) deposited on non-porous (glass slides) and semi-porous (Australian banknotes) surfaces were used in this study. Enhancement in the performance of the coated exfoliated particles compared to the commercial powder was observed, particularly in the case of aged fingermarks and polymer banknotes as challenging substrates.     

Optimisation and evaluation of 1,2-indanedione for use as a fingermark reagent and its application to real samples

1,2-indanedione is an emerging fingermark reagent used on porous surfaces. The general consensus is that this reagent is at least as sensitive as DFO, with some research showing higher sensitivity for 1,2-indanedione as opposed to DFO. However, a number of discrepancies existed in the literature as to which formulation and which development procedure produces optimal results. This project set out to investigate the best formulation and development procedure under Australian conditions, encompassing all published recommendations as well as some novel approaches. 1,2-indanedione formulations were compared with respect to initial colour, fluorescence, concentration of reagent, acetic acid concentration, and the effect of different carrier solvents. Numerous development conditions were investigated, including a conventional oven, a heat press and humidity. Further enhancement using metal salt treatment and liquid nitrogen was also evaluated. The heat press set at 165 degrees C for 10s proved to give the best initial colour and most intense luminescence. Secondary metal salt treatment improved initial colour and luminescence. The Polilight, the VSC 2000, and the Condor Chemical Imaging macroscope have been used to detect the fingerprints developed with 1,2-indanedione on a variety of high- and low-quality porous and semi-porous surfaces, with impressive results overall. Laboratory and field tests were conducted to compare 1,2-indanedione with DFO and ninhydrin as well as to investigate the position of 1,2-indanedione in the sequence of reagents for fingermark detection on porous surfaces. Overall, 1,2-indanedione proved to be a viable alternative to traditional methods for the detection of fingermarks on porous surfaces, with more fingermarks being developed using this reagent on real samples than both DFO and ninhydrin and a combination of the two reagents.     

汗潜指纹DNA等位基因分型研究

采用Chelex-100法提取汗潜指纹DNA,采用ID试剂盒进行PCR扩增,AB-3130基因自动分析仪电泳,Genemapper3.2进行分析,部分汗潜指纹DNA等位基因出现混合样本分型结果,部分出现等位基因丢失及错误分型.     

Techniques for fingerprint recovery on vegetable and fruit surfaces used in Slovenia — A preliminary study

An examination was conducted to investigate whether certain dactyloscopic powders and reagents can recover latent fingerprints on vegetable and fruit surfaces (apple, banana, tomato and potato). Two fingerprint powders, Swedish Soot powder mixture (Swedish Black), Silver Special powder and cyanoacrylate fuming (CA), were investigated. The results have shown that detection with Swedish blackpowder is the most suitable procedure as the percentage finger marks which were of adequate quality for further examination, was higher than with any other technique examined.     

Measuring the democracy–repression nexus

A considerable amount of time and intellectual energy has been expended detailing the nature of the relationship between democracy and a state's use of repressive force against its citizens. This article moves the discussion forward both methodologically and substantively. I use a fully Bayesian structural model with latent variables to mitigate the effects of measurement error in both democracy and repression. Further, I estimate two models, one treating democracy as a single overarching concept, similar to the strategy followed by Davenport and Armstrong (2004), Poe and Tate (1994) and one treating democracy as two-dimensional (voice and veto) as suggested by Davenport (2007b). I find that the two models, though closely related offer substantively different predictions. Statistical measures of fit favor the two-dimensional model. Further, I find that the effects of voice and veto are each strongly conditioned by the other.