欠发达地区地方政府职能定位浅探

在市场经济条件下实现欠发达地区发展,既要发挥市场配置资源的基础性作用,又要发挥地方政府的推动和引导作用。要有效发挥地方政府的重要作用,就必须对其职能进行合理界定。     

构建我国农村社区警务的理性思考

改革的深化使我国逐步确立了民主政治和法制国家的基本社会走向,社会环境的变化使得全面推行农村社区警务的需求和条件都迅速具备。从治理的视角出发,分析我国社区警务改革的实际运作情况,进而提出适用于我国农村社区警务战略的合理建议,具有一定的现实意义。     

When the election rains out and how bad weather excludes marginal voters from turning out

Ostensibly random and trivial experiences of everyday life, e.g., local weather, can have significant political consequences. First, we present a comprehensive meta-analysis of 34 studies of electoral turnout and rainfall – the vast majority demonstrating a negative association. Secondly, we present a new analysis of a voter panel with validated turnout for a complete electorate merged with fine-grained meteorological observations to show that Election Day rainfall reduces turnout by 0.95 percentage points per centimeter, while more sunshine increases turnout. Marginal voters (young voters) are up to six times more susceptible to bad weather and respond more positively to pleasant weather. Thus, bad weather exacerbates unequal democratic participation by pushing low-propensity voters to abstain. Efforts to include marginal voters therefore ought to be intensified during poor weather, and elections could even be moved to seasons with more pleasant weather to improve participatory equality.     

两级财政博弈下地方政府举债行为分析

中央和地方财政博弈随着财政制度调整一直存在。在两级财政博弈下,地方政府在财政包干制度下存在“经营企业”行为,在分税制制度下存在“经营城市”行为。地方政府“经营城市”行为结合土地制度最终导致地方政府大举借债行为的发生。     

Forecasting the 2015 general election using aggregate local election data

Local government election results are used to estimate a national equivalent vote that provides the basis for a general election forecast. By-elections provide the means for calculating weighted quarterly averages of national support. These show trends similar to those obtained by national polls. By-election results in the three month period leading to the general election contribute towards the national vote share calculation and seat distributions are determined by uniform national swing. Additionally, results from the main council elections from 2011 onwards are aggregated to the parliamentary constituency level and used to estimate each party's relative performance in key target seats. This information is used to fine-tune the final seat forecast which suggests a hung parliament is the most likely outcome.     

Tea Party support and perceptions of local economic conditions

Researchers have long studied the underpinnings of voter perceptions of national economic conditions. Of growing interest though, is the effect of local economic evaluations on approval and voting behavior. Even though individuals engage more directly with the local economy than with that of the nation, perceptions of local conditions are colored as much by individual attitudes and demographics as by objective measures. Metropolitan area unemployment rates strongly predict local evaluations, but so do education, age, sex, and political attitudes. Of particular interest, even controlling for objective conditions, support for the Tea Party strongly predicts more negative evaluations and overpowers most other sources of bias.     

Money,candidates, and mayoral elections

In this paper, we extend a well-trod line of research from congressional and state-level elections—the electoral impact of campaign expenditures and candidate characteristics—to a relatively understudied context, urban mayoral elections. Using a sample of large U.S. cities, we provide evidence that mayoral elections are very similar to elections at other levels of office: there is a tremendous incumbency advantage, one that is overcome only with great effort; campaign spending is closely tied to incumbent vote share but it is challenger rather than incumbent spending that seems to drive outcomes; and challengers are hopelessly outspent. In addition, we find that the effect of local economic conditions on incumbent success is mediated by challenger spending and that incumbent candidates fare better in racially diverse settings.     

论20世纪70年代台湾乡土文学价值观

20世纪70年代台湾地区乡土学的本质是现实主义学，偏重于学的社会功能，隐含着或直接表现出对社会和化的批判，体现出乡土作家强烈的社会责任感。以社会价值为学价值观念的形成，与当时日益尖锐的社会矛盾与社会问题密切相关，同时与一个熟悉台湾现实生活的本土青年作家群的掘起有关，而“五四”新学的影响在其间所起到的重要作用也不容低估。70年代台湾乡土学找回了失落多年的现实主义人精神，促成了该地区学的多元化。     

村落视野中的国家权力与地方传统——清末以降的花瑶社会生存状况考察

传统现代化理论认为,旧有传统是制约现代化进程的主要因素,随着这一进程的不断深入和现代民族—国家的全面兴起,国家权力将逐渐成为主宰乡村社会的主要力量,传统的力量与影响将最终消失。但对花瑶社会近百年来地方传统与国家权力之间的关系所进行的系统考察,却得出与此相反的结论:在传统国家向现代民族—国家的转变过程中,面对国家权力的强力渗透与侵入,地方传统并未全面瓦解和消失,而是依然在这一社会的日常生活和文明延续中起着重要作用。     

地方政府间竞争的影响要素分析

地方政府之间的竞争直接影响着地方经济和社会发展的总体态势。影响地方政府间竞争的因素有居民流动性、政府间协调机制、法制环境和地方官员政绩考核标准。