红军长征落脚点的六次选择

红军长征最后落脚陕北并不是长征一开始就确定了的,而是中共中央依据敌我情况的变化和新获得的信息,不断改变建立根据地的原定设想和计划,才一步一步确立的,期间先后至少有过六次更换,才做出最后的选择。     

Relocation Issues in Child Custody Evaluations: A Survey of Professionals

We report on a sample of 90 child custody evaluators in the United States, who completed an online questionnaire on their attitudes and beliefs in child custody relocation cases. Findings indicated that the vast majority of participants relied on relevant professional literature and utilized a relocation risk assessment forensic model. Participants found many risk, protective, and specific relocation factors important, but the triad of past parental involvement, support for the other parent, and child's age were afforded the most importance. Participants also reported that the moving parents sought relocation for educational/vocational reasons, to receive support of their extended family, or to remarry, while the nonmoving party most commonly opposed relocation due to fears of interference/damage to the nonmoving parent–child relationship, restrictive gatekeeping, and alienation. A common trend among participants was concerns over the possible detrimental impact of any relocation on the nonmoving parent–child relationship and quality of co‐parenting. The vast majority of participants reported that they made specific recommendations to the court about relocation, and the court agreed with their recommendation the overwhelming majority of the time. We discuss Implications of the findings as well as areas needing further research.     

Automated recovery of damaged audio files using deep neural networks

In this paper, we propose two methods to recover damaged audio files using deep neural networks. The presented audio file recovery methods differ from the conventional file carving-based recovery method because the former restore lost data, which are difficult to recover with the latter method. This research suggests that recovery tasks, which are essential yet very difficult or very time consuming, can be automated with the proposed recovery methods using deep neural networks. We apply feed-forward and Long Short Term Memory neural networks for the tasks. The experimental results show that deep neural networks can distinguish speech signals from non-speech signals, and can also identify the encoding methods of the audio files at the level of bits. This leads to successful recovery of the damaged audio files, which are otherwise difficult to recover using the conventional file-carving-based methods.     

红军长征中思想政治建设的历史经验述论

长征中党的思想政治建设的历史经验是：高度统一全党思想始终是思想政治建设的首要任务,是确保党的路线贯彻落实的根本保证;统一全党思想认识的过程也是党的理论升华的过程,必须始终坚持对“左”和右的错误斗争,始终注重总结历史经验;统一全党认识的基本着力点是理想信念教育,必须始终坚持把党性教育放在首位,始终把理想信念和具体实践相结合;民族团结是党的建设的重要内容,必须始终坚持党的民族政策,始终把对民族的思想政治建设建立在发展新型民族关系的基础上。     

Do local elections predict the outcome of the next general election? Forecasting British general elections from local election national vote share estimates

This article outlines a method for forecasting British general elections from national level vote shares at local elections. Although local elections are notionally ‘local’, the evidence suggests that they at least partly mirror national electoral fortunes. A simple general election vote share on local election vote share regression model that accounts for partisan differences and incumbency effects fits past data with reasonable accuracy. Based on the results of the 2013 and 2014 local elections, the model forecast a 56% probability of hung parliament, with a 78% probability of the Conservatives receiving the largest share of the vote.     

红军长征与少数民族革命运动的兴起

红军长征的胜利,不仅粉碎了蒋介石企图消灭红军的迷梦,而且扩大了革命影响,遍撒了革命火种,点燃了各少数民族革命的星星之火,促进了少数民族地区革命运动的迅猛发展,从而揭开了中国革命史上少数民族革命运动的新篇章。     

关于公安机关剧毒化学品管理工作的几点思考

剧毒化学品管理工作作为治安管理工作的一个重要方面,目前还存在民警业务知识缺乏,防护措施不到位、剧毒化学品鉴定程序缺失、接收程序不规范、剧毒化学品运输暂存措施缺乏等问题。解决这些问题,既要提高公安机关自身的管理水平,又要发挥政府的职能作用,同时加强与质检、安监、卫生等部门的协作。     

井冈山根据地的“三月失败”与共产国际的关系

井冈山根据地"三月失败"的教训是深刻的。长期以来,由于档案资料的缺乏,研究者在谈到"三月失败"时,只是一般地介绍"三月失败"的情况,或将责任归到周鲁和中共湘南特委身上。实际上,"三月失败"的根源在共产国际的错误指示和国际代表的错误指导。     

The long memory autoregressive distributed lag model and its application on Congressional approval

This paper considers the instrumental variables (IV) estimation of the autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model consisting of fractionally integrated regressors and errors, while allowing for part of the regressors to be endogenous. The idea of Liviatan (1963) and that of Tsay (2007) are combined to construct consistent and asymptotically normally distributed multiple-differenced two-stage-least-squares (MD-TSLS) and MD generalized method of moments (MD-GMM) estimators for the long memory ADL model. The simulations show that the performance of the MD-GMM estimator is especially excellent even though the sample size is 100. The IV estimators are applied to the data of Durr, Gilmour, and Wolbrecht (1997) on Congressional approval. As compared to the 0.08 estimate of the long-run effect of presidential approval on Congressional approval based on the scalar ADL model of De Boef and Keele (2008), a stronger support for the divided party government hypothesis is found for a class of the vector ADL model which generates a corresponding long-run impact equal to 0.26 or higher.     

寻找与寄托--“长征纪念热”背后的社会文化心理分析

在信念失落、价值迷惘的今天,再到长征那里去寻觅精神支柱,这就是长征纪念热背后蕴涵的一股欲以重建中国价值信念的隐蔽型文化思潮。