俄罗斯与北约:脆弱但可持续的伙伴关系

由于俄罗斯与北约对合作目标的互惠性认知虽有差异但在战略目标上基本一致,同时从绩效来看,双方各有所获。但双方对东欧和前苏联地区地缘战略空间的争夺,特别是俄罗斯用楔子战略和2010年新版军事学说对抗北约东扩,同时,双方对各自在未来欧洲安全机制中的角色定位和相互定位也不同,因此,俄罗斯与北约的伙伴关系将是脆弱的,但是可持续的。     

The offensive posture of NATO's missile defence system

A compelling case can be made to develop a NATO's missile defence system in response to the advancement of missile technology and the danger of nuclear weapons. However, this development also undermines Russia's retaliatory capacity, and consequently heightens the offensive potential of nuclear weapons. This article explores the offence/defence posture of NATO's missile defence plans in terms of both capabilities and strategy. It is argued that NATO is incrementally increasing the strength and reach of its missile defence components, while rejecting any international treaty to regulate and limit their future expansion. This corresponds with a strategy of achieving invulnerability through counterforce and utilising NATO as an ‘insurance policy’ against Russia, to be activated when conflicts arise. We conclude that NATO has the capacity to distinguish between an offensive and defensive posture by discriminating between potential targets, but it has displayed no intention to do so.     

Prospects for Russia-NATO relations: The SWOT analysis

Despite recent changes in international relations and lapse of time since the fall of the USSR, the issue of Russian membership in NATO has been an ongoing fact. Hence, the principle scope of the paper is SWOT analysis of potential Russian membership in NATO from the perspective of the Russian Federation. Through the introduction and evaluation of advantages and disadvantages of such membership in the light of latest geopolitical events in Eurasia suggested by academic and professional circles in NATO countries and Russia, we proceed with identification of fundamental strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats that Russia might face. Taking into account such determining factors as the size of its territory, shifting geopolitical conditions in the world, modern understanding of security and a potentially frozen dispute in Ukraine, we come to the conclusion that benefits potentially brought by Russian membership in NATO could be sustained while drawbacks could be eliminated by incorporation of NATO to OSCE and a change in voting procedures of the Alliance.     

A Dutch revolt? The salience of the nonstrategic nuclear weapons issue in Dutch politics

Transparency, international credibility, democratic accountability, a new realism in defense expenditures – these basic policy goals fit awkwardly with the current deployment of nonstrategic nuclear weapons (NSNW) on Dutch territory. Most parties in the Netherlands want the NSNW removed. Some are even willing to challenge the idea that only consensus among all 28 NATO Allies can lead to the removal of the NSNW. The new Dutch minister of foreign affairs for example, Frans Timmermans, has a long track record of calling for an end to the deployment of US nuclear weapons on Dutch territory. Without NATO consent if necessary. His appointment fits with the political shift that we have seen over the past few years in Dutch politics. This article looks at the political rationale behind that shift: who are the main political actors involved? How have domestic and international pressures influenced party positions? The article also looks at the possibilities a new Dutch Government has were it to challenge the NATO consensus on NSNW. Would the USA refuse to take the NSNW away? How would NATO react and what could mitigate Allied concerns?     

Transatlantic cooperation,alliance politics and extended deterrence: European perceptions of nuclear weapons

This article discusses the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) debate regarding American nonstrategic nuclear weapons (NSNW) in Europe, given the broad spectrum of views on nuclear issues when comparing individual member states. What is striking is the gap between public attitudes – which are broadly hostile to keeping NSNW in Europe – and elite opinion, which privileges the maintenance of NATO commitments to preserve alliance cohesion. To better understand this tension, this article dissects the elements of extended nuclear deterrence in Europe, addressing the difficulties associated with current nuclear-sharing arrangements. For some NATO states, the alliance's nuclear weapons are a political liability, since nuclear sharing clashes with international disarmament and nonproliferation commitments. For other NATO members, maintaining the status quo is preferable, as long as there is no alliance-wide consensus on the question of NSNW. These debates have been put to rest, for now, with NATO's Deterrence and Defense Posture Review, which reaffirmed the purpose of the alliance's nuclear weapons. However, these divisive debates point to more fundamental issues in alliance management, namely the credibility of American commitments, the sustainability of extended nuclear deterrence in Europe and the inevitable political tensions these questions provoke at the domestic level for NATO allies.     

Flexible modes of governance: Making CFSP and ESDP work

The European Union and the United States are on the verge of agreeing to a transatlantic free trade agreement. The proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership is aimed at boosting EU and US economic growth, but the negotiating partners have not excluded the defence sector from negotiations. Europe is at a tipping point regarding the rationale for its defence-industrial integration efforts. Any TTIP extending to the defence sector will raise questions about the nature of the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base, and, crucially, how it impacts the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and the Common Security and Defence Policy.     

Ukrainian‐polish relations between 1991 and 1998: From the declarative to the substantive

From the first days of Ukraine's independence, Poland was singled out by Kyiv to act as its ‘strategic partner’. This partnership was expected to extend to Poland helping Ukraine integrate with subregional institutions and move ever closer to regional institutions. However, up until 1994, Ukraine's hopes were frustrated — Poland's own objectives precluded it from moving too close to Ukraine. This article will argue that the demands of regional integration, in particular NATO enlargement, promoted a greater harmonisation of policy objectives between Kyiv and Warsaw (especially on the bilateral and subregional levels) from the time it was announced. The positive impact of NATO enlargement contrasts with the deleterious effects of EU enlargement, which threatened to disrupt ties between the two neighbours.     

The “sleep-walking giant” awakes: resetting German foreign and security policy

A quarter of a century after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the role of the Bundesrepublik in Europe is once again the focus of international scrutiny and academic debate. Having long been seen as a “reflexive multilateralist” and “tamed power”, with a “leadership avoidance reflex” and a “civilian power” strategic culture, the Eurozone crisis has pushed the Berlin Republic into the role of “reluctant hegemon”. At the same time, however, Germany has been widely criticized by its EU and NATO partners for its half-hearted commitment to the Afghan war and its failure to support its allies in the Libyan intervention. Prompted by a call by Federal President Joachim Gauck in 2013 for Germany to live up to its international responsibilities, new themes in foreign and security policy have recently emerged. At the Munich Security Conference in February 2014, a more active and engaged approach was outlined by both the Foreign and Defence Ministers. This paper will examine recent shifts in the discourse of German foreign and security policy, and considers the extent to which these have been accompanied by significant shifts in policy outcome and implementation – particularly in the light of the Ukrainian crisis.     

论北约扩大的历史进程及其影响

本文简要记述了北约自形成至2004年4月期间所发生的6次扩大的历史轨迹,总结了历次扩大的主要特点,分析了扩大对北约自身调整以及欧洲总体安全带来的影响,指明了北约扩大与俄罗斯之间所具有的互动关系。     

CJTF与北约军事战略的改革

本文介绍和分析了冷战后北约战略调整过程中出台的一项重要政策--建立多兵种联合特遣部队(Com-bined Joint Task Force,CJTF).CJTE是一种为特定紧急行动组织的、能够提供多种服务的武装力量.其组建方式类似"搭积木",指挥人员构成"内核",人员与装备构成"模块","内核"与"模块"平时就"隐藏"在北约军事一体化组织中,根据不同任务将不同的"内核"与"模块"组合起来,迅速投入到危机处理或集体防御行动中,又被称为"乐高"兵团.DJTF的建立是北约为改善危机处理能力、调整美欧关系、解决中、东欧国家参与北约行动的重要举措,是冷战后北约军事战略调整的组成部分.