Methodological aspects of the Dutch National Threat Assessment

This paper discusses issues related to measuring organized crime as they have become manifest in the Dutch contribution to the EU Organised Crime Threat Assessment (OCTA). It intends to convey to a wider academic community certain issues of definition, methodology and accountability, understanding the NTA process in terms of the communication of risks in a context of competitive defining institutions.

以国家审计为视野重构监所检察监督模式

监所检察权是检察机关的一项重要权能,目前主要通过在监管场所设置派驻检察室的模式来行使检察监督权。长期以来。这种设置派驻检察室的监督模式存在很多问题,其中派驻检察人员与监管场所“同化”的问题最为突出,导致监督效果不佳。需要借鉴国家审计监督模式的经验,改目前派驻检察为主的监督模式向派驻检察与巡回检察并重的过渡模式,并最终实现巡回检察为主的监督模式。     

走向全民健康保险:论中国医疗保障制度的转型

中国已经进入全民医保的时代,但医疗保障体系呈现碎片化的特征,其内部的若干制度安排之间出现了不协调。中国医疗保障体系亟待进一步转型,转型的重点和方向是将基本医疗保障体系从现行分散化、碎片化的社会医疗保险制度,改造为集中化、一体化的社会医疗保险制度,即全民健康保险。推进全民健保是"发展型社会政策"的体现,具有同时促进经济增长和社会发展的双重功效。从短期来看,这是一种简单易行而又可持续的减税计划,可以促进经济增长,有助于经济发展模式的转变;从长远来看,全民健保制度的建立标志着"社会性基础设施"的建设又迈上了一个新的台阶,这必将为中国福利国家的重建奠定基础。     

当前美国网络空间战略变化对我国家安全的影响及思考

当今美国网络空间战略在全方位维护国家网络安全的基础上,更注重积极抢占国际网络空间控制权。以新媒体为代表的＂网络外交＂成为美国实现政治目标的新手段。美国企图以＂互联网自由＂为旗帜,为其主导网络空间鸣锣开道。由于美国在相当程度上掌握着网络技术的制高点,控制着网络的连接权、话语权,因此在网络空间具有先天优势。当前,在对华网络战略方面,美国也已经由单纯的＂网络渗透＂转向利用网络空间的主导权和垄断网络资源的优势,对中国进行全方位的网络＂侵略＂、颠覆和破坏,给中国维护国家安全带来前所未有的冲击和挑战,中国应高度重视美国网络空间战略的动向和变化,妥谋对策。     

试论非法移民对美国国家安全的影响

非法移民是非传统安全领域的一个重要组成部分,同时也是国际社会所面临的一个共同问题。＂9·11＂事件后,美国社会对于非法移民与国家安全的关注达到了新的高度。非法移民与美国国家安全之间存在一定的相关性,这可从社会安全、国土安全与文化安全三个维度来分析非法移民对美国国家安全所产生的影响。在一定程度上,非法移民问题使得美国的国家安全环境变得复杂化,成为美国国家安全一个不容忽视的挑战。但是,过分夸大非法移民问题对美国国家安全的影响也与客观事实不符。     

The end of a strategic opening? The BNP's window of opportunity in the 2000s and its closure in the 2010s

ABSTRACT

Notwithstanding the endemic failure of extreme-right parties in Britain, the British National Party (BNP) observed a period of electoral growth in the 2000s. After the election of several city councillors nationwide, the BNP experienced an electoral breakthrough in the national ballot of the 2009 European Parliament elections. Yet the BNP's electoral accomplishments dissipated in the early 2010s, fuelling predictions of the party's terminal decline. Within this context, Carvalho seeks to explain the fluctuations observed in the BNP's electoral base in the twentieth-first century by exploring the structure of political opportunities alongside the strategy of the BNP's leadership. Drawing on the convergence thesis and the decline of voting along class lines, he argues that the BNP benefitted from a favourable set of political opportunities in the 2000s, reflecting the decrease in political polarization among mainstream parties, the rise in levels of public distrust, and the intense politicization of the issue of immigration. Despite a general shift to cultural xenophobia, the BNP's leadership remained attached to the ideological traits of neo-fascist parties, including the search for a ‘palingenetic rebirth’ and a national corporatist economic programme. These ideological formulae had important implications for the scope of the BNP's electoral coalition, as Carvalho demonstrates in a review of the secondary literature on the roots of the BNP's electoral support. Consequently, the BNP's electoral growth in the 2000s was the outcome of an interplay between a favourable window of opportunity in British politics and the party's electoral appeal. Carvalho goes on to link the BNP's electoral collapse in the early 2010s with the closing of the aforementioned window after the onset of the financial crisis, a temporary lack of political interest in the issue of immigration, and the formation of the coalition government in 2010.     

深化执政兴国规律认识的历史性飞跃——党的十六大以来执政理念的创新和发展

执政理念是贯穿党的执政活动的灵魂和精髓。党的十六大以来,以胡锦涛同志为总书记的中央领导集体,在坚持和发展中国特色社会主义的实践进程中,认真总结党的执政经验,逐步确立和形成了以科学发展观为核心,以坚持以人为本、执政为民为本质特征,以坚持“三统一”原则和“三执政”方式为主要内容,以构建社会主义和谐社会为目标取向,以提高党的建设科学化水平为内在动力的执政理念体系,把中国共产党对执政本质和执政规律的认识提升到新境界,对于在新的历史起点上指导党执政兴国的实践,具有重大的现实意义和深远的历史意义。     

韩国人对华负面认知与中国对韩公共外交途径

中韩两国关系自建交以来在许多方面取得了飞速发展,但近些年,两国关系由"暖"变"冷",原因是多方面的,其中韩国人对中国形象的负面认知,产生了很大的负面影响。对此,我们不能视而不见或避而不谈,而应积极加强对韩公共外交,促进两国友好关系顺利发展。韩国是中国的重要邻国,中韩两国关系良好发展的意义不仅局限在两国关系上,它对于改善东北亚地区的安全局势也具有不可忽视的作用。本文主要就韩国人对中国形象的负面认知及其对中韩关系所起的负面影响作用以及应对之策,做简要分析和探讨。     

论民族传统体育保护与发展的价值取向

民族传统体育是中国传统文化的重要组成部分,集中反映了中华民族的哲学观念和生存智慧。民族传统体育除了体育属性之外,还具备重要的文化属性。一直以来,由于价值取向上的偏差,民族传统体育的保护和发展存在重竞技性轻大众性、重体育性轻文化性、重传统性轻现代性的问题。通过分析,提出民族传统体育"传统属性遗产化"、"体育属性大众化"和"文化属性现代化"的价值取向。     

IMPACT OF VICTIMIZATION ON RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY: EXPLAINING RACIAL AND ETHNIC PATTERNS USING THE NATIONAL CRIME VICTIMIZATION SURVEY

Criminal victimization is known to influence households’ moving decisions, but theories suggest that the processes leading to a moving decision can vary across racial and ethnic groups. Drawing from current literature, we hypothesized that victimization would have a stronger effect on moving decisions for Whites than for Blacks or Hispanics, and that racial/ethnic residential segregation would moderate the impact of victimization on mobility. Using a longitudinal sample of 34,134 housing units compiled from the National Crime Victimization Survey for the 40 largest metropolitan areas in the United States (1995–2003), we found results that both support and contradict the hypotheses. Specifically, White residents display consistent evidence that victimization is a significant predictor of household mobility. Blacks and Hispanics, in contrast, are more varied in their moving behavior after victimization. In addition, significant differences exist among these groups in responses to victimization and in how mobility is influenced by residential segregation. Higher levels of residential segregation play a part in the victimization–mobility relationship among Blacks in a way that is more complex than we hypothesized.