To Tell the Truth: Ad Watch Coverage,Ad Tone,and the Accuracy of Political Advertising

This study examined the relationships among newspaper ad watch coverage, ad tone, and the accuracy of political advertising. A sample of political advertisements (N = 160) was drawn from the Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG) database and other sources for eight U.S. Senate races. Two experts on each race evaluated the ads’ accuracy and their ideological portrayals of candidates, while trained coders analyzed other aspects of the ads. Ad watch coverage from these races (ad watch N = 109) also was content-analyzed. The number of ad watches overall in a race and the number that explicitly criticized ads were positively related with the level of accuracy of political ads and with a tendency to portray their favored candidates closer to their actual ideological position—but the overall number of ad watches also was positively related with a tendency for ads to portray opponents as more extreme than their positions warranted. Ad watches usually tend to scrutinize negative ads more, but ad watch coverage in this study was unrelated with ad tone and with the number of negative ads in a race. Positive ads were rated as more accurate but also more prone to exaggerate the supported candidates’ centrism compared to other ads. Normative and practical implications are discussed.

We’re not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact checkers.

— Neil Newhouse, pollster for the Mitt Romney 2012 campaign     

论公法上财产权——以存在根据、成立要件和表现形式为主

私有财产权中的"私有"应解为"私人享有"而非"依私法享有",因此,私有财产权既可为私法上权利,亦可为公法上权利.公法上财产权存在的根据在于宪法上私有财产权在行政法上的直接适用和宪法规定在行政法上的具体化.公法上财产权不能由公法规范和公权力主体的义务直接导出,其成立还需要以该公法规范至少同时亦具有保护特定私人财产利益的目的为前提.基于私人在公法上的一般法律地位,公法上财产权可大致区分为消极的公法上财产权和积极的公法上财产权两大类.     

Affective polarization in multiparty systems

Affective polarization captures the extent to which citizens feel sympathy towards partisan in-groups and antagonism towards partisan out-groups. This is comparatively easy to assess in two-party systems, but capturing the pattern of affect towards multiple parties is more complex in multiparty systems. This article first discusses these challenges and then presents different ways of measuring individual-level affective polarization using like-dislike scores, a widespread measure of party sympathy. Using data for 51 countries and 166 elections from five modules of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, I then show that affective polarization adds to existing concepts as a way of understanding political participation and democratic orientations. Studying affective polarization outside the US could therefore have important consequences for our understanding of citizen perceptions of politics as well as citizen behaviour, but we need the appropriate measures to do so.     

The electoral consequences of anti-Muslim prejudice

A growing body of research has documented the development of pervasive anti-Muslim sentiment among White Americans. We build on this research to demonstrate that anti-Muslim attitudes and negative stereotypes of Muslim people have become an enduring and consistent component of White Americans' presidential vote choice beyond any one specific candidate or election. We argue that the racialization of Muslim Americas has increased their salience and significance in both the minds of White Americans and in national political discourse, making attitudes toward Muslims a consistent predictor of Whites’ presidential candidate evaluations in every election since at least 2004. We support this account with empirical evidence from the 2004–2020 American National Election Studies, using measures of group affect and negative stereotypes of Muslim people.     

Overdispersion and Poisson Regression

This article discusses the use of regression models for count data. A claim is often made in criminology applications that the negative binomial distribution is the conditional distribution of choice when for a count response variable there is evidence of overdispersion. Some go on to assert that the overdisperson problem can be “solved” when the negative binomial distribution is used instead of the more conventional Poisson distribution. In this paper, we review the assumptions required for both distributions and show that only under very special circumstances are these claims true.

制约公安"打防"工作落实的若干因素初探

在目前的公安工作实践中,公安"打击与防范"工作在某种程度上并未得到正确的落实,存在着"重打击,轻防范"的问题.对制约公安"打防"工作正确落实的公安基层现状、公安后勤保障、长效机制和绩效考核机制等相关因素进行分析研究,对于公安理论与实践均具有十分重要的现实意义.     

A War on Cops? The Effects of Ferguson on the Number of U.S. Police Officers Murdered in the Line of Duty

Police agencies in the U.S. are currently facing a major legitimacy crisis resulting from a spate of high-profile use of force incidents, many involving minority citizens. Recent headlines emphasize that there is now a “war on cops” and that police officers are facing increasing levels of hostility and violence fueled by a growing anti-police sentiment. In the aftermath of events in Ferguson, Missouri in August 2014, some commentators claim that the number of police officers feloniously assaulted and killed in the line of duty has increased sharply. Using time series analysis of data from the Officer Down Memorial Page, we test whether events in Ferguson were associated with an increase in the number of police officers murdered in the line of duty. Our results provide no evidence for a “Ferguson Effect” on the number of U.S. police officers murdered in the line of duty as of March 2016.     

心理学视域下的权力效应研究及其理论阐释

得益于社会认知研究范式的兴起,近二十年心理学视域下的权力研究取得了丰硕成果,权力效应是心理学关于权力研究的核心问题。本文对心理学视域下权力内涵的演变和研究范式进行了梳理,重点分析了权力对个体心理和行为带来的三大效应:消极效应、中性效应和积极效应,并对阐释权力效应的"接近-抑制理论""情境聚焦理论"和"社会距离理论"进行了系统介绍和总结。最后指出,如何通过相关变量的约束制约和减少权力的消极效应,并有效激发权力的积极效应,是未来研究要特别关注的重点。     

政绩晋升效应与地方财政民生支出——一个案例研究

在收入集权的财政体制下,中央财政通过转移支付将大量的财政资金下拨给地方政府来实施民生工程。这笔庞大的财政资金是否真的能够"达到它所希望到达的地方"?地方政府实施民生工程的动力在哪?用过程追踪的个案研究方法,通过江西省南昌市D区的个案研究发现,基于官员对职务晋升的追求,上级政府以政绩考核的方式推动着地方政府改变支出结构,将财政资金投入到民生工程中,以地区竞争的方式来获得上级的认可以求晋升。这一研究表明以"一票否决"资格赛为基础,规定考核任务为核心,"面子工程"获加分的"三位一体"式的政绩考核机制,有力地保障了民生工程的实施效果。但这种考核机制是否能够通行于其他政策的实施过程,还有待更进一步的研究。