大小非解禁对A股市场的影响研究——基于有理分布滞后模型和累积效应模型的比较

中国A股市场走势与大小非解禁究竟有多大内在关联？本文拟对此分析实证,以考察大小非当期效应和滞后效应的差异。基于2006年6月以来的月度时间序列样本,构建了经典的有理分布滞后模型并创新提出了累积效应模型,计量结果比较发现,大小非解禁对A股市场走势具有即期效应为正而累积效应为负的特征,并受外围市场波动的影响。进一步分析表明大小非解禁对香港市场走势影响不显著,由此判断大小非解禁确实是影响A股市场的一个独特因素。最后结合其他方面客观分析了大小非解禁的市场效应问题。     

东南亚华人在中国软实力提升中的推动作用与制约因素

冷战结束以来,随着中国国力的增长,中国与东盟国家关系的进一步发展深化,中国在东南亚的影响力有日渐增强之势.华侨华人作为一个特殊的移民群体,他们不仅在促进中国与东南亚国家政经合作和文化交流等方面发挥着桥梁作用,无形中也推动了中国在东南亚软实力的提升.主要表现为通过对中国发展模式和先进经验的介绍和引荐、对中华传统文化的传承和传播、对中国外交政策与外交行为的支持与解释等方式,在促进东南亚国家对中国的了解与认同的同时,大大提升了中国的国家形象和影响力.未来如何更有效地借用这一资源,减少并消除相关制约因素,促进中国软实力的建设与发展,实现中国与东盟国家的双赢,是值得进一步思考和关注的问题.     

合同的绝对无效和相对无效——一种技术化的合同效力评价规则解说

有效、可撤销、效力待定及无效制度仅仅是合同法上的合同效力评价规则,不妨碍其他民事规则、行政法规则、甚至刑法规则同时适用。合同无效有时可以更好地惩戒不法当事人,但有时却使得不法当事人逃离合同约束,从其非法行为中获利,甚至还会损害合同善意相对人以及和合同相关的善意第三人的利益。合同相对无效和绝对无效的区分,能有效保护善意相对人和善意第三人,有力地回应现代商事交易安全的需要。     

论诉讼契约的效力

诉讼契约需具备一定的要件方可生效。生效之诉讼契约对于当事人和法院都具有一定的约束力。法定诉讼契约对于诉讼程序产生直接效力,而非法定诉讼契约仅有间接效力,尚需义务人实施后续诉讼行为方可对诉讼程序产生一定的效力。基于当事人诉讼上之抗辩,对于诉讼性质诉讼契约之违反,法院依照双方约定的有关程序继续进行或者对双方约定的诉讼行为直接予以认可;对于私法性质诉讼契约之违反,法院在审查双方关于实体部分的合意是否合理履行基础上判定该违反行为是否有效。     

Deviant identity,negative self-feelings,and decreases in deviant behavior: The moderating influence of conventional social bonding

Abstract

Informed by Kaplan's general theory of deviant behavior it was hypothesized that adolescents characterized by deviant identities who developed negative self-feelings would decrease deviant behavior over time if the youths were bonded to the conventional social order but not if the youths were not bonded to the conventional social order. For adolescents not characterized by deviant identities, the development of negative self-feelings would increase deviant behavior over time regardless of the level of conventional social bonding.

The hypotheses were explored using data from youth (n=1019) tested during early adolescence and re-tested 3 years later. Ordinary least square regression models estimated the effects of negative self-feelings on later deviant behaviors controlling for earlier deviant behavior, gender, race/ethnicity, and father's education. The model was estimated separately for each of four subgroups: deviant identity/high social bonding; deviant identity/low social bonding; non-deviant identity/high social bonding; and non-deviant identity/low social bonding.

As hypothesized, negative self-feelings anticipated significant decreases in deviant behavior for the deviant identity/high social bonding group, but were unrelated to deviant behavior in the deviant identity/low social bonding group; and negative self-feelings anticipated increased deviant behavior in the two non-deviant identity groups regardless of the level of social bonding.     

The irrelevance of negative campaigns to political trust: Experimental and survey results

This article examines how media and partisan mechanisms of accountability influence presidential agendas in Latin America. The authors argue that responsiveness increases in powerful presidential systems when opposition parties and free media help citizens hold presidents accountable between elections. Where presidents must contend with a cohesive, ideological opposition and effective constraints to their power, they turn to valence issues with broad appeal and over which they have greater control. A free media—one without significant economic, legal, or political constraints—pressures the president to respond to the electorate's concerns, which include crime and corruption due to the incentives that motivate news content and the media's agenda-setting powers. Analyzing more than 50 presidential terms across 18 countries, the authors show that when Latin American presidents face either free and competitive media or strong legislative oppositions, homicide rates and the level of perceived corruption tend to be lower. Thus, this study proposes that efforts to improve media or partisan environments, or both, would help address Latin America's accountability deficit and promote good governance in the region.     

“裁判文书网上公开”的三个隐忧

一般认为,裁判文书的公开是司法民主理念的要求,它不仅有利于建立＂阳光司法＂,也能保障公民的知情权与监督权。并且,在互联网时代,裁判文书网上公开成为必然趋势。但是,在当前的社会环境与制度背景下,将裁判文书在网上予以全面公开尚且存在隐忧,主要涉及理念碰撞、司法性质追问、社会实效等具体问题。     

论民事、行政有效性与违法性判断的分离——兼谈法秩序的统一性与刑法判断的独立性

具有违法性的行为,在民事与行政上的效力一般被予以否定,即违法则不可能有效。但是在一些情况下,肯定这些行为的效力,更有利于法益保护和立法目的的实现．故在民法上出现了效力性强制性规定与管理性规定的区分。这体现了有效性与违法性判断一定程度上的分离．而这在行政法上也有体现。这种分离既体现了法秩序的统一性．又体现了各部门法不同的利益导向及法的利益权衡本质,也决定了各部门法判断的相对独立性,即使具有保障法地位的刑法也是如此。“一般违法性”的存在,与刑法判断的独立性不相冲突,而民事、行政法有效性与犯罪的成立也并不完全排斥。     

刑事和解的适用分析与对策研究

近年来,刑事和解在我国越来越受到重视和运用。分析目前刑事和解的适用状况,我们可以针对刑事和解在司法实践中存在的问题,采取相应的对策,及时立法来对其进行规制,使刑事和解在我国的社会主义法制建设中更好地发挥其应有的作用,这也符合构建和谐社会的需要。     

论行政规划的法律性质

行政规划的法律性质对于确定行政规划的救济方式具有重要意义。行政规划的性质取决于"确定规划"的性质,作为行政规划的完成阶段,"确定规划"通常以规划确定裁决的形式出现。确定规划裁决所具有的权利形成效果决定了行政规划应当是具体行政行为。但在我国,由于确定规划裁决的"权利形成效果"缺乏法律规定,因而行政规划尚不能被认定为具体行政行为。