中国财政政策对居民消费需求的非对称效应——基于流动性约束视角下一个新的分析框架

政府运用财政政策扩大居民消费需求,除了需要科学抉择政策取向之外,政策力度和节奏的把握也非常关键。本文在Tagkalakis研究的基础上,首先提出了中国财政政策对居民消费非对称性效应研究的理论框架,然后建立财政政策冲击对居民消费影响的经济计量分析模型,利用1999—2009年中国省际面板数据估计了政府消费冲击、税收冲击以及预期可支配收入对居民消费的影响,并在此基础上进一步考察流动性约束在财政政策冲击对居民消费产生非对称性影响中的作用。实证结果表明财政政策冲击在好与坏两个时期之间对居民消费产生了显著的非对称性凯恩斯效应。其中在坏的时期,政府消费冲击与税收冲击对居民消费影响效应的绝对幅度相对较大。虽然国外理论界认为非对称性效应产生的原因复杂,本文认为在我国财政政策冲击对居民消费产生非对称性效应的原因中,流动性约束起到了非常重要的作用。另外,预期可支配收入因是否面临流动性约束而对不同类型消费者的消费需求影响发生方向性改变。     

THE COGNITIVE INTERVIEW AND ITS EFFECT ON WITNESSES’ CONFIDENCE

Today there is ample evidence that the Cognitive Interview (CI) enhances witnesses’ memory. However, less is known about how the CI affects eyewitnesses’ confidence. To address this shortcoming we conducted a study analyzing how realism in confidence was affected by the CI. All participants (n=79) were first shown a filmed kidnapping. After 2 weeks we interviewed one-third of the participants according to the guidelines of the CI, one-third according to a Standard Interview (SI), and one-third were not interviewed at all (Control condition). Participants in all three conditions were then asked to answer 45 forced-choice questions, and to give a confidence judgment after each choice. For the 45 questions, no differences in accuracy were found between the three conditions. Confidence was higher in the CI and SI conditions, compared with the Control condition. CI and SI did not differ in metacognitive realism but both showed lower realism compared with the Control condition, although only CI significantly so. The results indicate that the inflation in confidence is more likely to be explained in terms of a reiteration effect, than as a consequence of the particular mnemonics characterizing the CI (e.g. “mental reinstatement of context”). In sum, CI does not seem to impair (or improve) the realism in witnesses’ confidence, and does not inflate confidence in erroneous recall, compared to a SI.     

论审前重复供述的可采性

由于审前重复供述的可采性直接关涉非法证据排除规则能否得到有效实施,因而,必须对审前重复供述的可采性做出规范。域外国家和地区有关判例在判断重复供述可采性时均是分析前次的非法取证行为是否对重复供述产生影响。此种分析严格来说不是“毒树之果”理论的运用．而是“非法讯问行为持续影响效力”的分析方法。我国应采用“非法取证行为持续影响效力”的分析方法,以便能在现行的法律框架内为法院排除重复供述提供法律依据。采用此种分析方法须综合考量个案中的具体因素。在我国,排除重复供述还面临着前次非法供述难以被排除以及法官自由裁量权过大两方面的困境,对此应进一步构建和完善相关制度．     

以民事司法查封财产设定抵押的效力分析

虽然《担保法》《物权法》以及《民法典》明确规定不得以依法被查封的财产设定抵押,但不能据此认定其属于禁止性规定,从而将违反该规定而设定抵押权的行为一律归为无效。查封虽在公法上具有绝对效力,但就其对债务人的效力而言,尤其是在最高人民法院于2004年制定《查封规定》之后,已经由绝对效力转为相对效力。结合《民法典担保制度解释》第37条第2款规定来看,若查封已经充分公示,债务人以查封物设定的抵押权仅是相对无效,不得对抗申请执行人(包括轮候查封的申请执行人)以及其后参与到执行程序中的债权人,但对于其他债权人而言仍是有效的。如果查封的公示效应不达,则允许成立善意取得,就查封物取得抵押权的债权人有权对抗前述主体。     

政府运行对信息公开的逆动力分析

深入推进政府信息公开存在多方面难题.本文从政府运行的视角,分析了政府运行对信息公开存在多种天然的内在抵触力量,本文称之为逆动力.这种逆动力包括三个维度,一是政府运行对外部约束的抵触,包括对行政过程受制和网络舆情多变两个方面的抵触;二是政府运行内部惯性的顽固保持,包括管理的非精细化和保持黑箱惯性两个方面;三是政府和社会信息通道的接口尚不匹配,即内外有别和保密问题.因此,推进信息公开,要更多地深入政府运行的内部深处,更多地思考其行动逻辑.     

中资企业海外资本运作的现状、市场反应及其战略分析

本文对中美企业海外资本运作的交易方式、交易金额、交易时间、交易估值倍数、行业分布及地区分布等方面进行了对比,详细分析了中资企业海外资本运作的现状。随后运用事件分析法分析了市场对中资上市公司海外资本运作的反应,并对计算结果进行了稳健性检验。最后结合计算结果,对中资企业海外资本运作的战略进行了分析。     

The Dynamics of Diversion: The Domestic Implications of Presidential Use of Force

Several studies report evidence of diversionary behavior by presidents, while others dispute findings that suggest domestic politics are part of the use of force decision calculus. We argue that previous studies of U.S. force short of war have failed to articulate what diversion actually means. We approach this important debate from a perspective that brings to bear presidential agenda-setting theory. Rather than treating the use of force solely as a dependent variable, we assess whether the use of force diverts attention by modeling the percent of the American public identifying the economy as the nation's most important problem. We also include presidential approval in the model. We treat the public opinion measures as endogenous variables that may or may not affect the decision to use force. We employ Vector Autoregression (VAR) methods to evaluate the causal direction of force and public opinion while controlling for the state of the economy and war. VAR is a multiple-lagged time-series approach that allows us to test a variety of hypotheses derived from diversionary and agenda-setting theory. Our results indicate that uses of force by the president have a notable agenda-setting effect, shifting public attention away from the economy. The shift in attention also causes a long-term effect on the president's public-approval rating.     

我国反对民族分裂主义政策的监督机制与效果分析——以新疆地区为例

我国维护祖国统一、反对民族分裂主义政策的监督机制包括立法司法行政监督、公众及社会舆论的监督、统一战线监督三个方面。我国反对民族分裂主义政策取得的效果可从生产力状况、实际效果、政策回应度三个方面进行初步评估，并由此对我国维护祖国统一、反对民族分裂主义政策的监督机制和执行效果状况有一个初步的认识。     

公司治理机制的本土化——从企业所有与企业经营相分离理念展开的讨论

我国公司治理制度远未达到体系化、合理化的状态 ,应当通过立法方式限制股东会的权力 ;扩大董事会职权 ,增强董事会的代表性和独立性 ;修正或取消法定代表人制度 ,推行共同代表制度 ;实现企业所有与企业经营的科学分离 ,辅之于更强有力的信息披露制度