中国与东盟各国间的贸易与FDI关系实证研究

本文选取2003～2009年间中国与东盟各国贸易和直接投资面板数据,用实证方法研究中国和东盟各国间的贸易与对外直接投资(FDI)的关系,结果表明:中国对缅甸、印度尼西亚、老挝、新加坡、越南的FDI及新加坡对中国的FDI促进进口贸易、出口贸易、进出口总贸易;中国对文莱、柬埔寨、菲律宾的FDI及文莱对中国的FDI促进出口贸易;中国对柬埔寨的直接投资促进进出口总贸易;泰国对中国的FDI与进口贸易、出口贸易、进出口总贸易间存在替代效应。此外,对外直接投资和贸易具有极强的双向因果关系。     

地方政府官员晋升与土地财政——基于中国地市级面板数据的实证分析

土地财政是当前政府管理中的热点问题,然而学界对于土地财政的动因和引发根源尚未有一致结论。基于晋升锦标赛理论,采用2003—2008年中国257个地级市政府的非平衡面板数据,从地方政府官员晋升竞争角度出发,分析了官员晋升竞争对土地财政的影响。发现,地方政府官员晋升竞争是引发土地财政的根本原因,且这一发现具有较好稳健性,官员任期与土地财政之间存在显著的倒U型关系,官员晋升竞争对土地财政的影响是因条件而异的,行政首长面对晋升竞争时更倾向于土地财政;相较东中部地区,西部地区官员在面对晋升竞争时更倾向于土地财政。由此得出,缓解土地财政问题的关键在于变革官员晋升模式,创新干部考核评价体系,以及延长和稳定官员任期是未来可能的改革路径。本文的发现对进一步理解我国官员治理模式,以及有效缓解土地财政问题具有重要的现实意义。     

Self-control, Victimization, and their Influence on Risky Lifestyles: A Longitudinal Analysis Using Panel Data

This research expands past investigations into the influence of low self-control as a risk factor for criminal victimization. Specifically, we consider two questions: (1) whether low self-control at one point in time can predict future victimization, and (2) whether victims alter lifestyle choices (like their own delinquency and contact with delinquent peers) in response to their earlier victimization. We answered these questions using three waves of adolescent panel data from the evaluation of the Gang Resistance Education and Training program. Our results support the predictions of self-control theory, showing that low self-control measured at an earlier time is associated with later victimization, even after controlling for past victimization, delinquency, social bonds, and delinquent peer contact. Likewise, self-control appears to influence the relationship between earlier victimization and later lifestyles.

Unemployment and voter turnout revisited: A brief note

This brief study revisits the issue of whether higher unemployment rates elicit an increase in the voter participation rate. Using a state-level panel dataset for all five of the Presidential election cycles of this century, it is hypothesized that, following Cebula (2008) and Burden and Wichowsky (2014), the higher the unemployment rate, the greater the degree to which eligible voters, whether unemployed or employed, show up at the polls, arguably because they are expressing the concerns and fears regarding prevailing economic policies and conditions and because by voting they are expressing the desire for changes to address those concerns and fears. The estimation implies that a one percentage point higher unemployment rate leads to a nearly 1.0% higher voter participation rate. This result is in principle compatible with and supportive of the hypothesis that higher unemployment rates motivate voters and the empirical finding of a positive voter turnout/unemployment rate association obtained in the studies by Cebula (2008) and Burden and Wichowsky (2014). Moreover, this finding is potentially important because it implies that elected officials are, to at least some degree, held accountable by the electorate for a weakly performing economy.     

创新视角下的苏南模式

苏南模式是政府主导不断进行制度创新的经济发展模式。当前的苏南模式是以吸引外资为导向的工业化道路,FDI对GDP有强烈的推动作用,但在没有考虑本土创新能力前提对FDI的作用是否会高估,FDI对于创新主体——本地企业又会产生什么样的影响。本文通过面板数据模型给出了实证研究。     

What explains the dynamics of citizens’ satisfaction with democracy? An integrated framework for panel data

Literature on political support broadly offers three micro-level models: socio-economic status, democratic process evaluations, and political performance evaluations explain people's differences in satisfaction with democracy. While tests show that these explanations complement each other, we do not know how. We combine for the first time all three models into one common longitudinal framework by explicitly considering aspects of time. We argue that relatively stable factors, such as socio-economic status, only explain general levels, whereas more time-sensitive factors, such as evaluations, explain differences between citizens at specific points in time. The results of latent growth curve modelling applied to nine-wave panel data support our general hypothesis of a common longitudinal framework. These results also show that economic evaluations play a prominent role as do some (but not all) electoral results. The findings have theoretical and methodological implications, and they offer a new perspective on the meaning of ’satisfaction with democracy’.     

The virtuous circle of representation

Theoretical and empirical research shows that political representation is a dynamic process repeatedly connecting citizens and political elites. However, less is known about how citizens alone experience the process of political representation and connect electoral participation with representation. This article combines different literature pertaining to the representative process in a dynamic framework. It explores causality between electoral participation and perceived responsiveness in citizens' minds using unique panel data. By arguing for two-way causality and the existence of a virtuous circle, the paper refines the concepts’ relationship beyond traditional conceptions that currently dominate the literature on electoral behaviour and participatory democracy. The results indicate that the representative process may be a self-sustaining experience for citizens over time.     

The impact of election outcome on internal political efficacy: The role of contextual factors

Many studies have investigated the consequences of election outcome for one of the important public attitudes, political efficacy. The effect of election outcome on external efficacy has been confirmed by most previous studies, whereas the effect on internal efficacy is not clear-cut. By reconceptualizing internal efficacy based on the social cognitive theory of self-efficacy, this study argues that there are two conditions for an election outcome’s impact on internal efficacy: the expected difficulty of winning and the level of involvement in the election. By analyzing panel survey data collected for three Japanese Lower House elections, this study shows that election outcome exerted an impact on internal efficacy if the following two conditions were simultaneously satisfied: (1) winners/losers perceived that the election was difficult/easy to win, and (2) voters were deeply involved in the election process.     

省直管县改革与县级政府财政解困——基于6省面板数据的实证研究

在全国各地普遍试点并推广的省直管县改革被认为是实现县域经济盘活和县级政府财政解困的重要手段,但关于该问题的大样本实证证据却尚未发现。基于6省2004-2009年的面板数据,采用基于自然实验的倍差法模型估计,本文实证分析了省直管县改革对县级政府财政自给能力的实际影响。研究发现省直管县改革的财政政策效应明显,显著提高了县级政府的财政自给率,但其政策效应呈现出边际效益递减的趋势。研究还发现省直管县改革对县级市、富裕县和规模较大的县的政策效应最明显。本文对上述发现进行了讨论,并据此提出省直管县改革通过提高财政自给率而对县级政府财政解困产生积极作用,但在稳步推进省直管县改革的同时需要采取配套措施;省直管县改革在不同规模、经济发展水平和行政单位性质的县产生的政策效应不尽相同,各地在推行省直管县改革时应因地制宜,结合县域经济和财力情况,制定适宜的政策并采取合适的策略。     

Can citizens care too much? Investment in election outcomes and perceptions of electoral legitimacy

Might there be a downside to citizen engagement with elections? The tendency for citizens who supported a winning candidate or party to be more supportive of the democratic system and more trusting of government than supporters of the losers has been well documented. I test the extent to which individual-level investment in a presidential election campaign amplifies effects of winning or losing using the online component of the 2008 NAES to track the same individuals' from pre-election to post-election. The analysis provides strong evidence of amplifying effects of investment on the relationship between winning or losing and perceptions of electoral legitimacy. Certain types of investment—policy agreement and participation—appear to hold significant implications only for losers and not winners.