新制度学派对后共产主义国家制度变迁的探索

与历史制度主义、社会学制度主义和理性选择等学派有关制度变迁的解释不同,以奥菲、约翰逊等人为代表的部分新制度主义者在详细阐述后共产主义国家特殊政治、经济和社会条件的基础上,提出了制度变迁的路径偶然理论。这一理论认为,在苏东剧变后产生的后共产主义国家,制度变迁的路径选择完全是偶然的。这种偶然性表现在这些国家新掌权者偶然的政策选择上,偶然的政策选择在制度遗产、国家能力和政策顺序等因素的干预作用下,制度变迁以消极型制度设计或积极型制度设计的方式发生。路径偶然理论在一定程度上解释了后共产主义国家制度变迁的方式,也反映了制度变迁研究方法的创新,但同时也存在明显的缺陷。     

不同时程吗啡依赖大鼠依赖相关脑区光镜和电镜观察

目的探讨吗啡依赖中枢神经系统毒理病理不同时程的变化。方法背部皮下递增注射吗啡建立吗啡依赖大鼠模型,光镜和透射电镜下观察不同时程大鼠吗啡依赖相关脑区,即蓝斑核、中脑导水管周围灰质、黑质、豆状核、杏仁核、海马的病理组织学变化,并对突触进行计数,比较与空白对照组的差异。结果吗啡依赖大鼠6个依赖相关脑区均出现神经细胞固缩或肿胀,神经纤维肿胀,线粒体肿胀、畸形,内质网扩张,多聚核糖体解聚,突触数量增多;胶质细胞、脑膜下淋巴细胞增多,随依赖时间的延长而更加显著,并可见胶质结节形成。吗啡依赖8周组、4周组, 大鼠突触数量较空白对照组增多,其差异具有非常显著性意义(P<0．01);吗啡依赖8周组大鼠突触数量的增多,与吗啡依赖1周组、2周组大鼠比较,其差异具有非常显著性意义(P<0．01)。结论吗啡依赖大鼠依赖相关脑区神经细胞呈缺血缺氧性及退行性改变,突触数量增多,并随吗啡依赖时限的延长而明显。     

国家的现代化路径与中产阶级的类型

中产阶级不仅是一种财产状况和财产关系,也是一种文化现象,不仅是一个现实问题,也是一种历史现象。离开对中产阶级形成和发展的历史条件的观察,就无法正确认识中产阶级的作用。中产阶级的作用是由其产生和发展的历史环境决定的,对中产阶级类型进行研究,只能从中产阶级产生的历史环境入手。由于各个国家历史环境的巨大差别,中产阶级在各个国家的作用并不完全相同。     

农民工NGO建设的政策需求与生成路径

农民工的出现是中国社会转型的必然;农民工为社会的发展做出了重大贡献.但是,其合法权益却没有得到应有保护.而农民工仅凭个人的力量往往难以维护自身的合法权益,从而产生了对组织的需求.农民工非政府组织(NGO)为保护农民工合法权益提供了组织保障.然而,农民工NGO的建设是一个长期而复杂的工程,许多问题值得探讨.试图通过对实际情况的分析,对农民工NGO的建设目标、政策需求和生成路径进行探讨.通过文献研究法和个人观察归纳法,认为农民工NGO的建设依然面临着法律、经费、制度、人才等方面的困境.根据农民工的实际需求和组织的生存困境,得出:现阶段农民工NGO的建设目标应该是发展面向基层的能够解决实际问题的基层组织.政府应该给予农民工NGO提供政策支持,包括进入与退出政策、资金与资助政策、制度与技术政策和人才与人事政策,从而推动农民工NGO的内生路径和外生路径的协调发展.     

Repeat victimization among adolescents and young adults

Prior research has shown that victimization incidents are disproportionately concentrated among relatively few victims and that prior victimization is a consistent predictor of future risk. This paper expands existing knowledge on victimization by describing temporal patterns of risk and by developing and testing alternative explanatory models of the link between past and future risk. Analyses based on panel data from the National Youth Survey support both state dependence and heterogeneity interpretations of the correlation in risk over time. In other words, prior victimization predicts future risk in part because it alters something about the individual, and because it indicates an unmeasured propensity for victimization that persists over time. The theoretical implications of these findings, including the feasibility of a victim labeling perspective, are discussed.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the American Society of Criminology, Phoenix, 1993.An exception to this lack of attention is the vast literature in the area of domestic abuse.     

政府管理创新若干问题的思考

本文从整体创新与局部推进、制度约束与实践先行、顶层设计与地方首创、理论突破与摸石头过河、模式借鉴与变通改进、创新动力与利益追求、革故鼎新与路径依赖七个方面探讨了中国政府管理改革和创新面临的一些主要问题,认为对这些问题的认识影响着中国政府管理改革和创新的未来走向和发展。     

Negotiating climate legislation: Policy path dependence and coalition stabilization

This article investigates the nature of policy path dependence through analysis of climate policy formation in the United States. In 2008 the US Congress attempted to pass the Lieberman–Warner bill, a comprehensive climate and energy package that would have capped greenhouse emissions and established a nationwide cap and trade program. In the same year, California successfully enacted the Global Warming Solutions Act. This article explores the circumstances of both cases and raises the question of why legislation at the state level was successful and took such a divergent form from legislation at the federal level. The divergence of these cases is used to highlight the nature of coalition formation and policy path dependence in the legislative process. Explanations of policy tend to gravitate toward either the generalizability of game theoretic approaches or the empirical depth of case studies. This article suggests a combined approach that uses case studies to analyze the positions and motivations of actors and to then model policy development over time. The approach examines policy through the formation and negotiation of policy coalitions. Drawing on the Advocacy Coalition Framework and omnibus analysis, the approach expands these coalition theories first by analysing legislative development at the interface of legislators and constituent interest groups, and second by adding temporal dimension to the analysis. The findings suggest that policy is path dependent in that it is negotiated between coalitions that in turn create stability in the policy process and insulate policy fields from external shocks. Policy path dependence suggests that theory alone is insufficient to predict policy outcomes; policy results depend strongly on prior policy efforts, historically and socially contingent coalitions, and the resulting framing of policy possibilities.     

实现中国梦必须提升文化软实力简

文化软实力在综合国力中的地位不断提高,并逐渐成为实现中华民族伟大复兴和提高我国国际影响力的重要因素之一。当前,我国要实现“中国梦”,就必须不断提升文化软实力,即坚持马克思主义的指导地位、不断传承中华民族优秀文化、努力培育社会主义核心价值观和发展创新文化产业。     

我国外贸依存度的结构性特征

外贸依存度高已经成为我国发展对外经济面临的一个突出问题。总体上看,我国外贸依存特征为外贸依存地区、国家集中,外贸依存东高西低,一般贸易外贸依存度上升、但加工贸易依存度依然偏高,附加值低的劳动密集型产品的外贸依存度高,对资源的进口依赖度高,对高技术装备和核心技术的进口依赖高等。研究我国外贸依存度的这些结构性特征,要有针对性地采取应对措施。     

是共赢不是依赖——试析韩国对华投资与贸易的新特征

上世纪90年代中国经济的高速增长和中韩建交加快了韩国对华投资和贸易的速度,之后的1997年亚洲货币危机时期,中国为稳定亚洲货币而展现出的高度责任感以及中国加入世贸组织,进一步加大了其规模。在投资引导下,贸易中严重偏于以原材料和零部件为主的结构特征,虽使韩连续保持巨额的对华贸易顺差,但也同时提高了和中国经济的联系程度。针对如何看待以对外投资刺激贸易从而带动经济的增长模式,笔者认为,投资国不应只顾虑到外来投资会提升受资国竞争实力、加深依赖甚至产生“飞镖效应”,而应从本国贸易顺差、产业结构升级乃至合作利益的角度出发,认识到这是经济全球化条件下共赢原则的必然选择。