Negotiating climate legislation: Policy path dependence and coalition stabilization

This article investigates the nature of policy path dependence through analysis of climate policy formation in the United States. In 2008 the US Congress attempted to pass the Lieberman–Warner bill, a comprehensive climate and energy package that would have capped greenhouse emissions and established a nationwide cap and trade program. In the same year, California successfully enacted the Global Warming Solutions Act. This article explores the circumstances of both cases and raises the question of why legislation at the state level was successful and took such a divergent form from legislation at the federal level. The divergence of these cases is used to highlight the nature of coalition formation and policy path dependence in the legislative process. Explanations of policy tend to gravitate toward either the generalizability of game theoretic approaches or the empirical depth of case studies. This article suggests a combined approach that uses case studies to analyze the positions and motivations of actors and to then model policy development over time. The approach examines policy through the formation and negotiation of policy coalitions. Drawing on the Advocacy Coalition Framework and omnibus analysis, the approach expands these coalition theories first by analysing legislative development at the interface of legislators and constituent interest groups, and second by adding temporal dimension to the analysis. The findings suggest that policy is path dependent in that it is negotiated between coalitions that in turn create stability in the policy process and insulate policy fields from external shocks. Policy path dependence suggests that theory alone is insufficient to predict policy outcomes; policy results depend strongly on prior policy efforts, historically and socially contingent coalitions, and the resulting framing of policy possibilities.     

实现中国梦必须提升文化软实力简

文化软实力在综合国力中的地位不断提高,并逐渐成为实现中华民族伟大复兴和提高我国国际影响力的重要因素之一。当前,我国要实现“中国梦”,就必须不断提升文化软实力,即坚持马克思主义的指导地位、不断传承中华民族优秀文化、努力培育社会主义核心价值观和发展创新文化产业。     

我国外贸依存度的结构性特征

外贸依存度高已经成为我国发展对外经济面临的一个突出问题。总体上看,我国外贸依存特征为外贸依存地区、国家集中,外贸依存东高西低,一般贸易外贸依存度上升、但加工贸易依存度依然偏高,附加值低的劳动密集型产品的外贸依存度高,对资源的进口依赖度高,对高技术装备和核心技术的进口依赖高等。研究我国外贸依存度的这些结构性特征,要有针对性地采取应对措施。     

The factors associated with criminal recidivism in Finnish male offenders: importance of neurocognitive deficits and substance dependence

Neurocognitive deficits and psychiatric disorders are often brought up as risk factors of recidivism. In this study, we investigated how neurocognitive and academic deficits and psychiatric disorders (including substance dependence) are associated with criminal recidivism and prison career among male offenders. In a health survey of Finnish prisoners, 72 sentenced male prisoners were examined in Turku prison using a neurocognitive test battery and psychiatric assessment including a standardized psychiatric interview (SCID-I, II). The neurocognitive and academic tests were chosen to assess domains of cognitive functioning and reading, spelling and mathematical skills. Our results showed that the combination of neurocognitive deficits and substance dependence was connected to recidivism. Axis I diagnosis (major mental disorders) and substance dependence were connected with neurocognitive and academic deficits. Moreover, first-time offenders had fewer neurocognitive deficits and Axis I disorders, less substance dependence and fewer personality disorders than those with several convictions. Rehabilitation of cognitive functions and academic skills, along with intervention for mental health problems and substance dependence could help to prevent the unfavourable circle of criminal career.     

动态情景下突发事件应急预案的完善路径研究

突发事件应急预案是"一案三制"的重要内容,对我国应急体系的建设和完善起到了积极的作用,但突发事件应急预案在实践中却遇到了缺乏针对性和可操作性的困境。突发事件的发生、演变和危害等具备极强的不确定性和独特性,其应对是高度情景依赖的,本文将对这种实践困境给出理论上解释,并从风险评估基础上的参与式编制、特殊情景下的授权与监督、加强应急预案培训和演练等方面提出针对性的政策建议。     

论消费欺诈诉讼案件证明难题的化解路径——以一个《最高人民法院公报》案例为样本的分析

消费欺诈诉讼案件中对＂欺诈＂事实的证明责任分配依＂规范说＂应由消费者承担,不应由法官裁量证明责任来改变法定的证明责任分配。法官自由裁量权应在证明评价与自由心证等环节加以运用。疑难案件的解决应坚持在严格遵循法定证明责任分配原则的基础上,通过司法实践生成诉讼证明的具体规则的路径来加以解决。     

Japan's policy on steel trade disputes with the United States: a comparative analysis

Abstract

This article examines interactions among the United States, Japan and the European Union over steel trade disputes with particular interest in Japan's reactions to the disputes. For this objective, this paper establishes an analytical framework that takes into account bilateral, international, and domestic factors in formulating a state's external policy and relations. It was found that the special relationship with the United States still impinged on Japan's reactions to steel trade disputes, but its influence has gradually declined. Moreover, growing familiarity with World Trade Organization (WTO) rules and practices and collaboration with other countries enabled Tokyo to expand its policy options to handle steel trade conflicts with Washington. Significantly, Japan formally adopted seemingly bold measures to cope with the US steel safeguard action, but the measures’ substantial influence on the US government was limited compared with those adopted by the European Union. Weak policy coordination among ministries prevented Japan from formulating strategic and effective measures in managing steel trade disputes with the United States.     

法治视域下的社会诚信建设

在中国当前社会转型时期,诚信缺失已经成为一个严重的社会问题。诚信与法治具有内在的统一性,诚信应建立在法治的基础之上,必须依靠法律制度作保障。要高度重视法治建设在社会诚信建设中的积极作用,从立法、司法、执法、普法、监督等各个环节、各个层面推动社会诚信建设。     

Briefly Noted

The argument is commonly made that television has changed the character of parliamentary elections. Its ever more central role in election campaigns outside the United States is held to have “presidentialized” parliamentary elections because it is a medium that projects personalities more effectively than ideas or policies. A comparison of the electoral roles of the Australian prime minister and the U.S. president indicates that both leaders are held personally accountable for government performance. However, such “presidentialism” appears to have little to do with television in Australia or in the United States. Television‐dependent citizens in both countries are less susceptible to the campaign appeals of chief executives than the rest of the voting public. Both leaders, but especially the president, do have an electoral impact. Counter to expectations, however, this impact makes itself felt in both cases among those voters who are not dependent on television for their political information and cues. Party identification seems to insulate the television‐dependent more successfully against leader effects.     

从“东突”问题看我国反恐立法的完善路径

“东突”恐怖主义势力近年来不断制造各类暴力恐怖活动,严重危害我国国家安全、公共安全以及人民群众的生命财产安全。目前,我国反恐立法存在明显不足,没有专门的《反恐怖法》。完善我国的反恐法律体系迫在眉睫。在《反恐怖法》出台之前,可以通过修改刑事实体法、刑事程序法以及制定相关地方性法规的方式完善打击暴力恐怖犯罪的法律运行机制,为反恐工作提供法律保障。