从“东突”问题看我国反恐立法的完善路径

“东突”恐怖主义势力近年来不断制造各类暴力恐怖活动,严重危害我国国家安全、公共安全以及人民群众的生命财产安全。目前,我国反恐立法存在明显不足,没有专门的《反恐怖法》。完善我国的反恐法律体系迫在眉睫。在《反恐怖法》出台之前,可以通过修改刑事实体法、刑事程序法以及制定相关地方性法规的方式完善打击暴力恐怖犯罪的法律运行机制,为反恐工作提供法律保障。     

A Theory of Terrorist Leadership (and its Consequences for Leadership Targeting)

States often target terrorist leaders with the belief that the leader's death or capture will cause the terrorist organization to collapse. Yet the history of this strategy of “leadership targeting” provides a mixed record—for every example of effectiveness, there are similar examples of ineffectiveness. The central question of this article is: what makes a terrorist leader important? Specifically, what does a terrorist leader do that no one else can do (or do as well) for the organization? To answer this question, I develop a theory of terrorist leadership that argues that leaders might potentially perform two main functions: they can provide inspiration and/or operational direction (or not for both). I also theorize as to how and why the provision of these functions changes over time as the organization itself changes. The consequences for leadership targeting flow naturally from this theory—when leaders provide these functions to the organization, leadership targeting is most likely to be effective. Case studies of Algeria, Peru, and Japan offer insights into why some cases of leadership targeting were effective and why others were not. The conclusion extends this model with an analysis of al-Qaeda's prospects after the death of bin Laden.     

从思想世界的重演到法律历史整体性的终极指向

思想世界的通达应当是我们研究法律历史整体性的一个基本前提。但是,如何进入古人的思想世界,依据何种标准进行评价及其在价值论基础上重新进行认同,进而演绎活着的法律文化传统,是一个相当重要的核心问题。正是在此意义上,在这个没有封闭的框架中,我们需要找出一种适应时代阐释的活着的东西——历史中从来无法断绝的更为本原的思想。它不仅仅需要历史的传统来界定和彰显它的存在,而且需要一种出自日常生活的观念来支持和认同此种活着的思想。人类社会变迁的历史就是从虚无性之中开出的历史,所有的历史都是被人类的思想观念赋予了相对意义的历史,全部人类行为所到之处都被异化为一个意义世界。职事之故,传统中国的法律道路也只能在这个前置性的框架中才能得到建构和确切的理解,也只有在逐层剥离思想精义的外壳之后,方有可能看清楚法律道路的走向。     

Déjà vu All Over Again: Investigating Temporal Continuity of Adolescent Victimization

An important theoretical issue in the study of criminal victimization focuses on state dependence or the extent to which prior victimization causally affects subsequent victimization. Framing this issue are two conceptual arguments that posit divergent predictions regarding the impact of past victimization. While “victim labeling” suggests that the experience of prior victimization increases victimization in the future, “victim rationality” suggests that past victimization decreases subsequent victimization. To date there has been little longitudinal research that explicitly evaluates these competing viewpoints. In response, the current study uses panel data from a sample of adolescents to assess the merit of these opposing theoretical frameworks. Against this theoretical backdrop, it is shown that prevailing strategies for the analysis of panel data—random-effects and fixed-effects—produce erroneous results that add confusion to the debate regarding the nature of state dependence processes in criminal victimization. Drawing from advances in econometrics, two estimators that can overcome the problems that plague more traditional panel data models are used to provide a test of the competing victimization perspectives. Results from those analyses suggest support for the thesis that past victimization increases subsequent victimization, but the magnitude of this positive relationship is more modest than is indicated by analytic models that have been utilized in prior longitudinal victimization research.

辨证理性与改革的张力——论社会转型过程中正确处理传统与现代的辨证关系问题

现代化和全球化是现代社会转型的历史纵向和文化横向两个社会运动维度,也是社会变革过程不可分割的两个方面.但是,无论是时间上的纵向现代化运动,还是空间上的横向的全球化运动,都需要政治家在改革中应用辨证的理性,在保守与变革中保持必要的张力.     

我国企业融资结构对证券市场宏观效率影响分析

宏观效率是资本市场的外在效率,是资本市场与国民经济相互作用及其对经济增长贡献所体现出的效率。宏观效率会受到一国经济发展道路和资本融资方式选择的长期影响。优化企业融资结构,实现融资方式的多元化,是增强我国证券市场宏观效率的有效途径。     

海洛因依赖者100例分析

对100例自愿戒毒的海洛因依赖者的年龄、婚否、职业、吸毒方式、吸毒年限和首次吸毒原因等进行了调查分析，结果发现：吸毒者以青中年男性、初中以下、个体经营、无业及待业人员占绝大多数。而近年来，高中以上学历、干部职业的人员吸毒率有上升趋势，采用注射摄毒的人数亦有增加。     

当代中国政治发展研究述评

学者对当代中国政治发展的认识日益深刻,主要表现在：对政治发展的内涵认识的深化;政治发展目标上基本目标和最终目标的区分;政治发展动力的单一因素论和多因素论探讨;政治发展障碍的根源以及政治发展的路径选择。但是,由于国内学者的认识分歧,学术界还没有形成具有共识性的政治发展理论。     

Rondas Campesinas in the Peruvian Civil War: Peasant Self-defence Organisations in Ayacucho

Despite the fact that the Shining Path guerrilla movement in Peru enjoyed initial peasant support, the emergence and spread of rondas campesinas or self-defence committees in the Andean highlands of Ayacucho was principally a response against coercion and violence exerted by Shining Path against the very same peasantry. This article seeks to demonstrate that the ronda phenomenon must be understood as part of the complex changes brought about by the proliferation of violence in the Peruvian Andes. The spread of rondas campesinas cannot be reduced to a mere counterinsurgent strategy imposed by the security forces on the rural communities; communal initiative and peasant 'agency' were, at certain stages, at least as important. Only with the rise to power of Fujimori were the self-defence committees formally incorporated in the state's anti-guerrilla strategy. Subsequently, with the reduction in the level of violence, self-defence committees have been seeking new roles in relation to the challenges of re-civilianisation and reconstruction.     

论行政传播视阈下的领导者媒体形象

领导者媒体形象是领导形象的重要组成部分。在行政传播视阈下,领导者媒体形象不仅具有表象性,还具有公共性、代表性、广延性、透明性。在组织识别系统理论（CIS）透视下,领导者媒体形象有其独特的内容、形式与要义。领导者媒体形象塑造应该在嵌入形象意识、实施公关传播、把握塑造时机、借用外脑设计方面下功夫,以提高领导者媒体形象的合拍性、合“情”性、合时性与合理性。