Excavating Concealed Tradeoffs: How Russians Watch the News

Citizens in democracies are expected to make better decisions if they understand policy tradeoffs. However, politicians rarely have incentives to communicate them; citizens are uncomfortable choosing among valued outcomes; and devising a common metric is difficult. It is not surprising that in the United States the environment provides relatively little cuing or priming of tradeoffs in television news. Russian citizens, on the other hand, face a media environment in which tradeoff cuing is intentionally suppressed by owners' agendas, yet viewers detect concealed tradeoffs even in the absence of tradeoff priming and viewpoint diversity. Analysis of discourse among ordinary Russians in 16 focus groups convened in four cities, differentiated by political reform and media market environments, showed that when watching news in which tradeoffs are thoroughly concealed, viewers challenge stories by offering a broad spectrum of uncued tradeoffs. Tradeoffs come from diverse policy domains and represent a range of cognitive strategies, some of which are considerably more abstract than others and link elements of their observations and assumptions (together with what they can extract from the stories) into complex reasoning outcomes.     

Agenda Control in the Israeli Knesset during Ariel Sharon's Second Government

How do multi-party coalition governments share agenda power? In principle, coalitions might allocate agenda power among their members by distributing special proposal rights, distributing special blocking rights, or both. The literature has prominent models embodying each polar possibility, with Laver and Shepsle's model envisaging that each party in a coalition has the ability to propose any bill(s) it wishes within the jurisdiction of a ministry it controls; and Cox and McCubbins' cartel theory envisaging that each party has the ability to block bills, thus necessitating collective bargaining over the overall agenda. This paper shows that agenda-setting in Israel is not consistent with the ‘ministerial dictatorship’ version of the Laver–Shepsle model but is consistent with the Cox–McCubbins model.     

Preventive and Repressive Strategies to Limit the Number of Commercial Robberies in Denmark

In this article, the impact of preventive and repressive measures to limit the number of commercial robberies is evaluated. This is done by analysing national statistics, register data, police documents and interview material of inmates convicted for commercial robbery. Preventive measures are met by counterstrategies. The effect of the introduction of paint cartridges - after detonation the bills are rendered unusable because of paint damage - is documented. The effect is, however, not a longlasting one. Arrest is a crucial marker in the decision to continue or to desist from commercial robbery. The arrest rate is high. Most convicted commercial robbers have a tendency to continue with crime after arrest and completion of sentence, but only a few continue with commercial robbery. The empirical data do not allow for a definitive conclusion on whether it is the offender's perception of the probability of future arrests, or of the severity of their outcomes that is responsible for desisting from commercial robbery. Both factors presumably influence this decision, but perceptions concerning the likelihood of arrest are likely to be more important.     

中国公共政策过程的研究:西方学者的视角及其启示

1950年后,西方开始兴起中国政策过程研究的热潮。从五六十年代到九十年代,以美国学者为主的西方学者的研究视角从精英、派系逐渐转向官僚组织,其政策过程的模式包括理性决策模型、权力斗争模型、讨价还价模型、各自为政模型、竞争性说服模型等。本文总结了中国政策过程的特点和影响因素,即政策议程设定与政治高度相关、政策目标追求“模糊共识”、政策决策过程“讨价还价”、政策执行呈现出显著的差异性和多样性、政策变动周期不稳定等。     

The undoing of a unique relationship? Peace and security in the EU–South Africa Strategic Partnership

ABSTRACT

When the European Union (EU) and South Africa acceded to a strategic partnership, they expanded into new areas of partnership. One of these areas was peace and security, which is the focus of this article. The article argues that, although there appears to be a shared understanding of what security means, the strategic partnership has not been utilised significantly to further this understanding in practice. This is largely due to the EU's preferences for a continental, multilateral approach over the bilateralism of a strategic partnership. At the same time, South Africa sees its strategic partnership with the EU as being outside of its broader commitment to regional security. As a result the peace and security element of the strategic partnership has not been leveraged effectively despite several entry points for action. The article thus concludes that both the EU and South Africa need to re-think the current arrangement.     

Between indifference and hesitation: France and EU enlargement towards the Balkans

Abstract

France’s hesitant stance on EU enlargement towards the Balkans is illustrative of a broader ambivalence among both French elites and citizens towards the European project. Despite principled support for the Balkans’ EU membership, achieving this step is no strategic priority for France. The official approach emphasizes strict conditionality and a rigorous monitoring of reform progress in aspirant countries. A hostile public opinion and superficial media coverage further strengthen the country’s reluctance to admit new, possibly unprepared candidates into the Union. Analysing the historical evolution of the French position on EU enlargement as well as its current political, institutional and societal expressions, this article construes France’s disinvestment from the Balkans’ EU perspective as the result of failed expectations and a growing disillusionment with the EU’s international role and its political future more broadly.     

Explaining interest group access to parliamentary committees

This article explains why parliamentary groups invite interest groups to the parliamentary arena. It argues that interest groups’ access to committees not only reflects policy-makers’ need for information and expertise but also party preferences and institutional factors such as the type of government, parliamentary committee structure and committee agenda capacity. Results show that interest groups’ access to the parliamentary arena increases under minority governments, in the case of highly conflictual issues, and when the number of permanent committees increases. Also, results demonstrate that parliamentary groups invite interest organisations following different logics – problem-solving or confrontation logic – depending on the type of functions they have to perform – legislative and oversight activities. The article uses a novel, comprehensive database with information on the appearances of all interest groups in the Spanish parliament from 1996 to 2015.     

Boosting or Hindering Aid Effectiveness? An Assessment of Systems for Measuring Donor Agency Results

Amid rising criticism of aid effectiveness coupled with tight budgets in many donor countries at a time of economic crisis, donor agencies are under pressure to deliver value for money and to demonstrate development results. In response to these pressures, more and more donor agencies are adopting standard indicators, which allow for results to be aggregated across interventions and countries, in order to report agency‐wide results. This article analyses the reporting practices of eleven bilateral and multilateral donor agencies and assesses the implications of agency‐wide results measurement systems for aid effectiveness. The analysis shows that the data on aggregate results provided by donor agencies is only of limited informational value and does not provide an adequate basis for holding donor agencies to account. Moreover, reporting on agency‐wide results may have a number of adverse effects. Given the various limitations and risks identified in this article, I suggest that donor agencies should explore complementary options or alternatives to standard indicators in order to meet their reporting requirements. Donor agencies are advised to invest more in rigorous impact evaluations and to raise the transparency of individual interventions. © 2016 The Authors. Public Administration and Development published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

2015年度中国公共政策研究现状与未来展望--基于对“四刊”公共政策类论文的分析

通过对2015年度“四刊”中公共政策类论文进行定量统计和定性分析,可以看到当前的公共政策研究以政策执行、政策网络、公民参与等为热点主题,以定性思辨分析、文献资料研究为主导方法,分布在理论与方法探讨、政策过程研究、工具与价值思考、创新与变迁研究、比较研究与借鉴等多个领域。结合目前的研究现状和实践背景,未来我国的公共政策研究应当向法治化、民主化、科学化、信息化、国际化的方向迈进,以创新理论研究成果,服务当前现实需要。     

南海问题中的印度因素浅析

南海问题虽然是中国与某些东南亚国家之间的双边海上领土争议,但其域外影响因素却正在发酵。除由来已久的美国因素外,印度——一个有着地区大国抱负的南亚国家——的影响日益显现。自上个世纪90年代印度制定并实施东向政策以来,南海地区被界定为与印度国家战略和经济发展密切相关的延伸区域。近年来,印度在南海海域加大了战略投入,通过加强与东南亚海上国家的经济、政治和军事联系,积极介入南海问题。未来印度在南海问题中的作用变化值得进一步关注和评估。