Illicit arms trafficking and the limits of rational choice theory: the case of the Balkans

Organized crime is often conceptualized as a business enterprise formed by actors motivated by profits. The Balkans represents an ideal case for testing the extent to which assumptions about the image of actors involved in illegal arms trading can be extrapolated to the macro-level of analysis. Focusing mainly on public discourse, this paper points to several thematic categories of illicit arms trafficking: i) profit-oriented arms trafficking involving organized crime groups ii) trafficking of arms for the purpose of arming criminal-terrorist formations and iii) state-sponsored illegal arms trafficking. Although economic incentives appear strong in many cases, other cultural, social and political issues also frame the illicit arms market in the region. We argue that both understanding and policing organized crime should also embrace the non-economic nature of this type of criminal behavior.

刑法上认识因素的实用主义法理学分析

"天价葡萄案"引起了人们广泛的讨论,但是法律人应当理性地思考一个重要问题:法律是否应当考虑行为人的心智.根据实用主义法理学,可行性、成本和效果是分析这一问题的三个角度,即:由于法律上难以确定一个客观的意志标准,由于法律考虑行为人意志的成本过高,并且由于法律考虑行为人的意志并没有什么好处,所以,法律应当放弃对于行为人意志的考虑,而是采用一个更为客观、更为实用的理性人标准.     

Western Political Research Approaches and the Development of Political Science Methodology in China

The restoration and development of political science as a discipline in China since 1980 benefits from its methodological improvements that were made largely by introducing research approaches from western academia. The aim of this paper is to examine the evolution of the introduction based on articles published in Chinese academic journals since 1990. There exists a wide diversity in research approaches in political science, and the authors try to explain why each approach has a different impact on Chinese political studies and how the introduction of such knowledge has changed the way Chinese political researchers understand the methodology and political science as a discipline.

Decision support for using mobile Rapid DNA analysis at the crime scene

Mobile Rapid DNA technology is close to being incorporated into crime scene investigations, with the potential to identify a perpetrator within hours. However, the use of these techniques entails the risk of losing the sample and potential evidence, because the device not only consumes the inserted sample, it is also is less sensitive than traditional technologies used in forensic laboratories. Scene of Crime Officers (SoCOs) therefore will face a ‘time/success rate trade-off’ issue when making a decision to apply this technology.In this study we designed and experimentally tested a Decision Support System (DSS) for the use of Rapid DNA technologies based on Rational Decision Theory (RDT). In a vignette study, where SoCOs had to decide on the use of a Rapid DNA analysis device, participating SoCOs were assigned to either the control group (making decisions under standard conditions), the Success Rate (SR) group (making decisions with additional information on DNA success rates of traces), or the DSS group (making decisions supported by introduction to RDT, including information on DNA success rates of traces).This study provides positive evidence that a systematic approach for decision-making on using Rapid DNA analysis assists SoCOs in the decision to use the rapid device. The results demonstrated that participants using a DSS made different and more transparent decisions on the use of Rapid DNA analysis when different case characteristics were explicitly considered. In the DSS group the decision to apply Rapid DNA analysis was influenced by the factors “time pressure” and “trace characteristics” like DNA success rates. In the SR group, the decisions depended solely on the trace characteristics and in the control group the decisions did not show any systematic differences on crime type or trace characteristic.Guiding complex decisions on the use of Rapid DNA analyses with a DSS could be an important step towards the use of these devices at the crime scene.     

Rational Choice Rewards and the Jihadist Suicide Bomber

Suicide terrorism is the most violent and horrifying form of terrorism in the world today. This kind of terrorism causes many fatalities and can throw an entire nation into a state of panic. We usually attribute this kind of terrorism to altruistic motivation, assuming that bombers are willing to sacrifice themselves for a higher cause. The current study uses the criminological theory of Rational Choice to analyze the motivation of jihadist suicide terrorism. By reviewing the religious, personal, and social incentives, we demonstrate that even those who kill themselves in suicide attacks, which are seemingly examples of irrational or altruistic behavior, do so while considering future, self-gratifying benefits. Since this self-destructive behavior is mostly driven not by altruistic motivation but by the anticipation of costs and benefits, we find that there is no fundamental difference between the perpetrators’ motivations and those of other criminals; both groups are committed to maximizing self-gratifying, beneficial behavior.     

自由主义:基于理性的政治论说

无论我们对自由主义持何态度 ,都不可否认它是当今汉语学界的一种显学。由于各种原因 ,在学界占据主流地位的始终是 2 0世纪后半期在西方兴起的以反思启蒙理性为着力点的、以哈耶克、波普和伯林等为主要代表的自由主义思潮。然而 ,由于对自由主义在西方发展脉络 ,尤其是自由主义之最初证成缺乏足够的了解 ,国内学人难以理解哈耶克等人何以要极力辩解自由主义不是建构理性主义 ,误认为其对“理性的滥用”之批判就是要批判理性本身 ,有些人甚至追随某些西方后现代主义思潮 ,断定自由主义抛弃理性仍能得到有力辩护。通过剖析格雷和罗蒂两个学案表明 :自由主义之哲学论证离不开理性 ,否则或失去其本质或沦其为偶然 ,因为自由主义本为探求政治理性之学。不过 ,自由主义并非建构理性政治的惟一通途 ,肯定还存在着建立理性政治的其他通路需要我们去摸索     

论《廊桥遗梦》的共同美感

<廊桥遗梦>以其独特的魅力,引起了人类的情感共鸣.它给人们的强烈美感体现在人的表象、格调与细节、理性、距离与缺憾四个方面.     

Economics and Politics: Towards a Dialogue between Economics and Political Science

In this essay, I present a sceptical point of view with regard to the introduction of the economists' models in political science. Based on examples drawn from the field of political behavior and public opinion research, I discuss the lack of realism and the limitation of the theoretical scope of the models the political scientists are expected to import. My discussion has no pretension of being original. By spelling out the unattractive implications of the narrow assumptions of the economists' theory of action for a political scientist working empirically, it rather attempts to contribute to the clarification of some of the impediments to an improved dialogue between the practitioners of the two disciplines which have long been divided by the theoretical approach of neoclassical economics.     

Political Efficacy und Wahlbeteiligung in Ost‐ und Westdeutschland

Es wird die Frage untersucht, ob in Ostdeutschland die Beteiligung an den Bundestagswahlen unter anderem deswegen geringer ist als in Westdeutschland, weil ostdeutsche Wähler weniger davon überzeugt sind, mittels der Beteiligung an politischen Wahlen persönlich die Politik beeinflussen zu können. Die empirischen Analysen erfolgen mit Querschnittdaten des ALLBUS 1998. Sie zeigen, dass sich die Einflusserwartungen in Ost und Westdeutschland nur zufällig voneinander unterscheiden. Daher können die Einflusserwartungen nicht das entscheidende Kriterium für die unterschiedlichen Wahlbeteiligungen sein. Von Bedeutung für die Stärke der Einflusserwartungen sind persönliche Überzeugungen über eigene politische Kompetenzen und Reaktivität des politischen Systems, deren Einflüsse bei den Ostdeutschen grösser sind als bei den Westdeutschen.     

谷歌地球影响国家安全

地理信息是整个国家信息的重要组成部分,广泛应用于经济建设和国防建设等领域,直接关系国家安全和利益。作为地理信息的一部分,地图对国家安全至关重要,随着信息时代的到来,互联网地图也开始出现。当前互联网地图中以谷歌地球最为有名,它对包括中国在内的许多国家的国家安全带来了有利和不利的两方面的影响。对此,应合理利用其有利的一面为国家安全服务,并采取措施,积极应对其不利于国家安全的一面。