Performance of the supervised learning algorithms in sex estimation of the proximal femur: A comparative study in contemporary Egyptian and Turkish samples

Sex estimation standards are population specific however, we argue that machine learning techniques (ML) may enhance the biological sex determination on trans-population application. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) versus nine ML including quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA), support vector machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), Gaussian process (GPC), Naïve Bayesian (NBC), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Random Forest (RFM) and Adaptive boosting (Adaboost) were compared. The experiments involve two contemporary populations: Turkish (n = 300) and Egyptian populations (n = 100) for training and validation, respectively. Base models were calibrated using isotonic and sigmoid calibration schemes. Results were analyzed at posterior probabilities (pp) thresholds >0.95 and >0.80. At pp = 0.5, ML algorithms yielded comparable accuracies in the training (90% to 97%) and test sets (81% to 88%) which are not modified after employing the calibration techniques. At pp >0.95, the raw RFM, LDA, QDA, and SVM models have shown the best performance however, calibration techniques improved the performance of various classifier especially NBC and Adaboost. By contrast, the performance of GPC, KNN, QDA models worsened by calibration. RFM has shown the best performance among all models at both thresholds whereas LDA benefited the best from using both calibration methods at pp >0.80. Complex ML models are not necessarily achieving better performance metrics. LDA and QDA remain the fastest and simplest classifiers. We demonstrated the capability of enhancing sex estimation using ML on an independent population sample however, differences in the underlying probability distribution generated by models were detected which warranted more cautious application by forensic practitioners.     

地方政府财政支出竞争与区域资本配置效率——区域制造业产业资本配置效率视角

阐述了内部要素市场发育滞后下地方政府财政支出竞争与区域资本配置效率的关系;借鉴JeffreyWurgler的研究思路并采用我国30个地区28个制造业的面板数据模型计算出2001年1月至2006年8月我国不同地区制造业的资本配置效率;用回归模型验证了财政支出竞争对区域资本配置效率的影响.得出:地方政府财政支出竞争所设置的要素流动壁垒、分割市场和重复建设的行为,创造资本性收入、干预地方国有商业银行的信贷行为,引资竞争、对外资税收减免和基础设施竞赛行为导致区域产业资本配置低效.减少地方政府财政支出竞争对区域资本配置负向影响的关键是:确定科学合理的政府目标函数维度,并保持目标函数维度之间的协调和均衡;加快内部要素市场开放,建立生产要素的合理定价机制,矫正扭曲的生产要素价格;治理"预算外"收支,限制政府行政管理费支出过快增长.     

社会变迁中的“暴动操作—暴动解除”刍议——读《新秩序下的混乱:从印尼暴动看华人的政治社会关系》有感

本文利用台湾杨聪荣博士的著作<新秩序下的混乱:从印尼暴动看华人的政治社会关系>, 分析有关暴动发生的过程,发现其中存在着统治精英和社会上的抗争力量从不同方面利用华人问题, 进行 "暴动操作",以之为政治斗争的一种特殊手段;并相应地寻找理论与实践模式来做 "暴动解除" 的设计,根据一定的方案来加以防患,减少其祸害的程度."暴动操作-暴动解除"可以当作一种客观存在的事物来加以调查研究;值此全球化区域协作、以人为本和人权主义的时代, 印度尼西亚华人可以利用境内外、国内外的社会网络, 对印度尼西亚国内少数极端主义分子的行动加以暴露, 挫败其"暴动操作";特别是, 可以利用中国和东盟的交流合作体系等平台, 参与印度尼西亚的社会发展、国家建设.这一切既敏感又复杂的活动,如能达到理想效果,则是以非政治化、非意识型态化、非族群体化的原则, 用公共行政、公共管理的方式进行操作的一种公共事务.     

基于大系统优化理论的中国—东盟自由贸易区物流协调体系研究

本文认为,根据大系统优化理论构建中国—东盟物流协调系统,将有效解决当前自由贸易区各国物流合作中存在的基础设施总体落后、管理体系与相关法律不健全、物流合作机制作用受限等问题。这是一项艰巨的工作,亟需各国政府、物流行业和企业真诚合作,共建跨国物流"协调器",并根据"标准化"内涵将大系统有效"分解"成若干子系统;同时要借助日益发达的信息化技术,协调公路、铁路、航空和水运等跨国物流子系统之间的关系。     

萨科齐执政时期法国情报协调体制改革问题研究

萨科齐当选总统后,法国进行了海湾战争以来第二次大的情报改革。在情报协调体制方面,法国成立了国家情报委员会,以取代部际情报委员会;设立了国家情报协调官一职,使国家情报协调工作有了常设性的协调主体。通过此次改革,法国结束了以总理为核心的情报协调形式,开创了以总统为核心的情报协调体制。虽然此次情报协调体制改革仍存在不足之处,但从情报协调工作实践来看,其效果明显好于以往的体制。     

Civil Society,Environmental Security and Knowledge: Forest Governance in Thailand and the Philippines in the Context of ASEAN

In the domain of environmental security, it appears that a strong civil society, one with strong social ingenuity and social capital, is a necessary condition not only for environmental security, but also for regional security in general. This paper will argue that in the context of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), much can be learned from the empirical experiences of Thailand and the Philippines that have established records of accomplishment in civil society participation in forest governance. Also discussed is the possible role of epistemic communities both within these countries as well as across countries in the ASEAN in harnessing institutions of knowledge to influence domestic and regional governance of forest resources.     

东北老工业基地振兴与东北亚区域合作

东北老工业基地在中国经济发展过程中做出了重要贡献。改革开放以后 ,东北老工业基地被边缘化了。充分利用有利的国外市场和资源对于振兴东北老工业基地具有十分重要的意义。把中国东北的发展置于东北亚区域内 ,有利于东北地区在开放的环境中获得振兴和发展。同时 ,中国东北地区的振兴也为周边国家的发展提供了机会 ,能够进一步促进东北亚区域经济合作的发展。     

现代农业地域模式及现存问题

随着社会生产力的发展，农业现代化是世界农业发展的必然趋势，我国也正处于向现代化农业过渡的阶段。介绍国外现代农业模式以及出现的相关问题，可以为我国农业发展起到重要的借鉴作用。     

略论在涉税犯罪侦查中的税警协作

加强公安机关与税务机关的协作,是当前涉税犯罪侦查中急待研究解决的重要问题。在打击涉税犯罪工作中,税务机关与公安机关应优势互补,采取切实可行的措施,加强协作,以形成打击涉税犯罪的合力。     

Neither here, not there: Bulgaria and Romania in current European politics

The article analyses the process of EU enlargement with reference to the progress that Bulgaria and Romania have made within it. It is argued that leaving them out of the wave of accession finalised in May 2004 for ten of the candidate states, has placed them in a situation of double exclusion. Firstly, their geographical belonging to the region of Southeast Europe has been rendered non-essential by their advanced position within the EU enlargement process. Secondly, their achievement in economic and political transition has been removed from the progress of the ten states, which joined the EU in May 2004 by delaying the time of their accession. As a result, any efforts in regional cooperation and integration between Bulgaria and Romania on one hand, and other Southeast European states on the other, have been effectively cancelled. Moreover, in current European politics, the two countries have come to serve the unenviable role of exemplifying on the part of the European Union how progress is being awarded and hesitation punished.