Strategy and Selection in International Relations

It is widely recognized that many of the samples we use for statistical analysis in international politics are the result of some selection process. Not surprisingly, selection models are becoming increasingly popular. At the same time, the role of strategic interaction has begun to play a more important role in statistical analyses. However, it has not been clear how statistical strategic models and selection models relate to each other, or what the effects are of employing one when the other is the more appropriate model. In this article, I 1) clarify why international relations scholars cannot shield themselves from selection bias simply by assuming their results are limited to a given sample; 2) show how recent statistical strategic models relate to traditional selection models and generalize the two sets of models by deriving a correlated strategic model; and 3) examine the effects of misspecifying either correlated errors or strategic interaction. My results indicate that failure to model the strategic interaction produces worse specification error than failure to account for correlated disturbances. In fact, traditional bivariate probit models appear to be superior only when states are almost completely uncertain about each others' preferences.     

国际政治视角下的中阿博览会

进入新世纪以来,我国在外交领域积极推行全方位外交,努力发展同阿拉伯国家的关系。中阿经贸论坛于2013年9月正式升格为中阿博览会,成为中阿关系史上又一具有里程碑意义的重大事件。中阿博览会在推动中阿经济发展的同时,也为稳定和发展中阿关系提供了更高层次的互动机制,具有重大的国际政治意义。     

Explaining Taiwan's policies in the South China Sea, 1988–99

The current paper discusses Taiwan's policies in the South China Sea during the period 1988–99. These policies are discussed with reference to ‘realist’ and ‘non-realist’ theoretical approaches. The realist position regards Taiwan's South China Sea policies as an outcome of its relations with the People's Republic of China and the Southeast Asian countries. These policies are fashioned and implemented in a coherent way by a unitary state. Two ‘non-realist’ positions are identified. One focuses on influences from domestic political parties and party factions, bureaucratic segments and economic interests. The other emphasizes the impact of transnational alliances, mainly through oil business lobby groups allied with mainland Chinese partners. The investigation sustains much of the realist argument. It is, however, argued that party politics and bureaucratic infighting has had an independent effect on Taiwan's South China Sea policies, while the impact of oil business interests has been limited.     

Rethinking the New ENP: A Vision for an Enhanced European Role in the Arab Revolutions

This article assesses European responses to the Arab uprisings and, in particular, the introduced change in the European Union policy toward its southern neighborhood. The presented analyses provide a profound scrutiny and assessment of the new version of the European Neighbourhood Policy, empirical evidence of persisting security considerations post-2011 in Euro–Arab relations, and a more elaborated vision of future Euro–Arab relations, attempting to balance between three considerations: security, democracy, and governance.     

日本民主党时代的对俄关系及战略性展望

2009年8月,民主党取代了长期垄断日本政坛的自民党,为国内的政治改革送来一缕清新之风。鸠山政权试图摆脱美国对日本的政治束缚,外交政策上强调与东亚国家及地区的合作关系,并暂时缓和了因领土争端而陷入僵局的日俄紧张关系。但是,随着鸠山政权的倒台,以及此后的民主党政权逐渐回归"向美一边倒"的保守主义政治态势,致使日俄领土争端急速升级,双边关系的维系也仅停留于经济窗口的沟通。     

Sino-Ghana bilateral relations and Chinese migrants’ illegal gold mining in Ghana

ABSTRACT

This article examines the participation of some Chinese migrants in illegal gold mining (known as galamsey) in Ghana, and how the Government’s policy to address the issue created diplomatic tension between China and Ghana. Drawing on primary data from in-depth, face-to-face interviews with 250 respondents and supplementary information from archival sources and personal observation, the study found that small-scale gold mining is an area legally reserved for Ghanaian indigenes, who faced stern competition from some Chinese migrants’ miners. Their ability to mobilize resources and machinery to execute galamsey virtually displaced the indigenes from their source of livelihood and caused environmental catastrophes. The Ghana Government’s policy response to the Chinese migrants’ galamsey, which led to arrests, sentencing and deportations of some Chinese miners, angered Beijing and fractured Ghana–China diplomatic ties. But the dispute could not collapse the entrenched bilateral relations between the two nations because the calculated mutual benefit derived from the relations was thought to be higher than the Chinese galamsey issue. Policy reforms which legally integrate Chinese migrants’ miners into the small-scale mining sector would stop galamsey and strengthen Sino-Ghana relations.     

从“十大关系”到“十个结合”

《论十大关系》对中国社会主义建设道路的探索具有重要价值,＂十个结合＂是改革开放宝贵经验的科学总结。贯穿从＂十大关系＂到＂十个结合＂的基本线索就是马克思主义基本理论和中国具体实际相结合,其中渗透的则是马克思主义哲学的世界观和方法论。     

危机公关从信访做起

当前我国正处于社会转型期,各种社会矛盾交织,从公安工作实践来看,各类涉法涉诉信访凸显,信访所引发的矛盾与冲突成为警察公关危机最集中的表现。公安机关要以涉法涉诉信访为突破口,运用危机公关的策略和方法,将危机消灭在萌芽状态。为此,公安机关要从源头上预防和减少危机的发生;建立信访危机预警机制;妥善应对与处置各类危机。     

中新建交30年的回顾与展望

2020年是中新建交30周年,30年来,中新关系在政治、经济、人文、安全等领域发展迅猛;频繁的高层互访、密切的经贸合作、丰富多彩的文化交流以及务实的军事合作,都彰显出双方关系的先进性与引领性。相互尊重、平等相待,与时俱进、效益优先,文明互鉴成为中新交往的宝贵经验和财富。中新在交往过程中讲究循序渐进、求同存异,充分尊重对方的发展模式,充分照顾对方的舒适度,成功地达成了一个又一个的政府间合作项目。毋庸讳言,30年来,中新关系也偶有嫌隙,但整体向好是一个大的发展趋势。2020年暴发的新冠肺炎疫情成为继第二次世界大战以来全球最具影响力的事件。突如其来的疫情既是严峻的考验,也为中新双方的合作带来了新的机遇。在后疫情时代,双方在医疗卫生、社会治理、数字经济、金融法律、第三方市场等领域的合作将大有作为。中新两国应当充分发挥"快捷通道"的作用,继续深化跨境电子商务、数字城市建设方面的合作,致力于将新加坡打造成"一带一路"的超级中转站。     

析中俄关系中的相互认知与信任问题

从长远来说,中俄战略协作伙伴关系的稳定、健康、和谐发展,必须要妥善解决好进一步加强双方之间的相互理解与信任问题。中俄两国高层之间已经建立起了比较良好的友谊与互信,而在普通民众之间,现有社会调查和研究结果表明,目前还存在着一些相互了解与理解不足、缺乏相互认同与包容,因而也就缺乏相互欣赏与信任的问题。在这项长期的系统工程上面,中俄双方的有关方面都还需要做出大量而艰辛的工作。