关于缓解县乡财政困难的思考

近年来县乡财政形势严峻,收支矛盾尖锐、债务负担沉重、虚收与财政风险等问题十分突出。缓解县乡财政困难根本在于县域经济持续快速健康发展,内在动力是不断深化改革:加大结构调整力度,强化收入监管力度,完善现行的“分税制”财政体制,加快地方公共财政体系建设,大力推进县乡机构改革和事业单位改革。     

A Rationale and Method for Examining Reasons for Linkages Among Adolescent Risk Behaviors

A large volume of research has investigated interrelations among adolescent risk behaviors. Although several theoretical accounts have been proposed, researchers have not directly examined hypotheses for why risk behaviors are linked. In the present paper, a distinction is drawn between predictive factors that explain variance in risk behaviors and “linkage factors” which may provide an explanation for why risk behaviors are interrelated. The relevance of linkage factors to risk behavior research, theory, and practice is described. Further, a simple to use and easy to interpret analytic technique for exploring linkage-related issues is illustrated. Using this technique, hypotheses regarding the role of predictors in explaining linkages among risk behaviors can be tested directly. The proposed line of inquiry will provide valuable input for intervention efforts and theoretically relevant information concerning linkages among adolescent risk behaviors. Research Associate at the Brock Research Institute for Youth Studies at Brock University, Ontario, Canada. He received his M.A. in Clinical Psychology from the University of North Dakota. His major research interests are adolescent risk behavior involvement and youth activity involvement as a context for positive development. Professor in the Department of Child and Youth Studies at Brock University, Ontario, Canada. She received her Ph.D. in Developmental Psychology from the University of Waterloo. Her major research interests include adolescent risk taking and resilience, including academic underachievement and media/technology influences on lifestyle choices and learning. Assistant Professor in the Department of Child and Youth Studies at Brock University, Ontario, Canada. She received her Ph.D. in Developmental Psychology from Brock University. Her major research interests are adolescent risk-behavior involvement, particularly related to gambling, and risk and resilience.     

怎样科学地认识我国生产力跨越式发展问题--从马克思恩格斯的跨越理论谈起

生产力的发展是连续的、渐进的自然历史过程,但不排除发展中的间断性、反复性和跳跃性。我国生产力的发展状况,已经基本具备与当今世界先进生产力接轨的条件。但是必须注意生产力跨越式发展的限度、风险和不平衡问题。     

Mental Disorder, Violence, and Gender

Recent studies have reported comparable rates of violence among men and women with mental disorder, raising important issues for clinical risk assessment. This study examines the relationship between gender and violence using data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study. Patients in acute psychiatric wards were interviewed 5 times over the year following their discharge to the community. Results showed some differences between men and women in the violence committed immediately following discharge, with rates for men being higher. But the prevalence of violence over the 1 year was similar for female and male discharged patients. However, there were substantial gender differences in the situational context of the violence committed. Men were more likely to have been drinking or using street drugs, and less likely to have been adhering to prescribed psychotropic medication, prior to committing violence. The violence committed by men was more likely to result in serious injury than the violence committed by women, and men were more likely than women to be arrested after committing a violent act. Women were more likely to target family members and to be violent in the home.     

论票据伪造的风险负担

票据是具有流通性的有价证券,易被他人伪造。当出现票据伪造时,票据当事人之间的风险责任与损失分担问题就变得较为复杂。由善意的付款人还是善意的持票人承担较为合理,两大票据法系规定不一。将两大票据法系票据伪造风险负担规则进行比较,对我国票据立法的相关规定进行评析,维护当事人之间的利益平衡,更好地保障票据的流通与交易安全。     

风险文化与马克思主义时代化的路径选择

摘要：理论形态的发展与文化形态的发展具有时代同步性。马克思主义理论形态产生于理性主义和社会主义的文化氛围，而当代的风险文化是构建马克思主义新形态的文化土壤，由此显现了以文化路径推进马克思主义时代化的可能性。风险文化是时代化马克思主义的文化内核，风险文化学是当代马克思主义的新形态，它以风险意识为核心概念，并以马克思主义风险文化思想为理论主体，同时以科学发展为实践归宿。     

后危机时代商业银行信用风险管理研究——基于风险一收益均衡控制视角

后危机时代经济运行态势的不确定性对银行业的信用风险管理体系提出了新的挑战。商业银行要主动研究新能源、新技术、新产业市场拓展问题，培育新兴信贷市场，加快信贷结构调整来应对信贷大投放后的信贷业务持续发展，并研究在经济周期下行压力下企业及其关联方风险承受能力的状况，提升信贷风险识别和风险计量水平，创新信贷定价模式，优化经济资本配置。     

腐败行为及其治理选择——基于前景理论的研究

提出一个应用前景理论研究腐败行为的分析架构,考察腐败行为的特征、治理手段及其效率。研究发现,对于存在非理性偏差的腐败行为,加大惩罚力度的效果取决于行为人所受处罚的相对风险规避度量,一定条件下存在"惩罚陷阱":加大惩处力度反而使行为人加大腐败投入,选择高风险的腐败行为,此时行为人存在极端的赌徒心态。一个弹性的惩罚制度等同于一个对腐败的边际惩罚递减的惩罚制度,会增加行为人的腐败价值预期,增强行为人逃避严惩的侥幸心理,加剧腐败行为蔓延。并且,弹性越大,行为人绝对风险规避度越小,腐败行为的收入预期越高,腐败蔓延的速度越快。高薪的激励效果则依赖于监督惩罚环境、薪酬支付体系与行为人的价值取向。对处于经济转型的发展中国家而言,经济发展不平衡,利益矛盾冲突加剧,强烈冲击人们的价值取向与行为规范,行为人不患寡而患不均,提高官员薪酬的激励手段难以取得好的反腐效果。优化监督执法环境与公务员的选才机制是治理腐败的有效手段。     

第三方支付应用下的消费者网上购物风险感知——基于山东大学学生的实证研究

实证研究结果表明：第三方支付抑制了风险感知的产生、第三方支付削弱了影响风险感知因素的作用、第三方支付使风险感知的维度降低。网站的快捷便利性、真实性、安全性和网上购物经历对消费者网络购物感知风险各维度有显著影响,呈负相关关系。     

浅析施工企业财务风险的管理重点

施工企业基于其自身特点和行业性质的特殊性，决定了存在投标履约保证金数额大、质押时间长，加之工程工期长，成本管理、控制链长，工程竣工但业主资金不足，造成应收款的回收难度大等财务风险。结合施工企业的特点，从资金结构、预算管理、成本控制、工程竣工结算等方面对施工企业财务风险的成因、防范及对策进行分析和探讨。