An Indepth Actuarial Assessment for Wife Assault Recidivism: The <Emphasis Type="Italic">Domestic Violence Risk Appraisal Guide</Emphasis>

An actuarial tool, the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA), predicts recidivism using only variables readily obtained by frontline police officers. Correctional settings permit more comprehensive assessments. In a subset of ODARA construction and cross-validation cases, 303 men with a police record for wife assault and a correctional system file, the VRAG, SARA, Danger Assessment, and DVSI also predicted recidivism, but the Hare Psychopathy Checklist (PCL-R) best improved prediction of recidivism, occurrence, frequency, severity, injury, and charges. In 346 new cases, ODARA and PCL-R independently predicted recidivism. An algorithm was derived for a combined instrument, the Domestic Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (DVRAG), and an experience table is presented (N=649). Results indicated the importance of antisociality in wife assault.     

Charities and Political Campaigning: The Impact of Risk-Based Regulation

This article examines the effects of the Charity Commission’s implementation of risk-based regulation on the political campaigning activities of charities. In doing so, it draws on the findings of a recent empirical study which explored charity representatives’ awareness of relevant law and regulation and their perceptions of the obstacles they faced in their campaigning work. The article begins with a brief exploration of the emergence of risk-based approaches to regulation, followed by consideration of the legal and regulatory requirements for risk management by charities. Moving to its main focus of political campaigning, the article notes the unique legal issues faced by charities in campaigning work. It provides a comparative evaluation of the 2004 and 2008 versions of Charity Commission guidance CC9 on campaigning and political activity by charities (CC9) in terms of their approach to legal compliance, their formulation of the specific risks of campaigning and their approach to the process of risk management itself. In addition, the article considers the relevance to campaigning activity of the Commission’s current plans for an ‘enhanced approach’ to risk in its compliance work. The article concludes by considering the potential impacts on charitable campaigning of both the Commission’s overall approach to campaigning and its perceived risks, and of further entrenchment of risk principles in charity regulation.

社区老年高血压病患者的中医体质类型及相关危险因素分析

目的 探讨社区老年高血压病患者中医体质类型分布和相关危险因素,为高血压病的防治提供参考。方法 根据《中国高血压防治指南（2010）》,将5 582例社区老年志愿者分为高血压病组及非高血压病组。采用中医体质调查问卷,对其进行中医体质及危险因素分析。结果 5 582例老年人中,高血压病患者占55.2%,非高血压病者占44.8%;高血压病组平和质562例（18.2%）,偏颇体质2 521例（81.8%）,非高血压病组平和质467例（18.7%）,其余共2 032例（81.3%）。进一步分析发现,高血压病组偏颇体质主要是痰湿质,非高血压病组偏颇体质主要是气虚质,两组之间体质分布差异具有统计学意义（P＜0.05）。Logistics回归分析结果显示：在高血压病与中医体质类型关系的模型中,痰湿质为独立危险因素;在高血压病与中医体质类型及相关因素关系的模型中,谷氨酸氨基转移酶（alanine transaminase, ALT）、痰湿质、同型半胱氨酸（homocysteine,Hcy）、血脂异常、年龄及血糖为危险因素。结论 本社区老年高血压病患者体质分布以偏颇体质多见,痰湿质、气虚质、阳虚质是较为常见的体质类型;ALT、痰湿质、Hcy、血脂异常、年龄及血糖是高血压病的危险因素。在社区慢性病管理中,根据不同中医体质类型制定相应的防治干预方案,积极调整偏颇体质,倡导健康的生活方式,加强对高血压病高危人群的干预,对社区老年高血压病的防治具有指导意义。     

特大城市社会风险恢复机制之法制优化研究——以行政法为视角

特大城市社会风险恢复机制应包括善后恢复机制、调查评估机制、救助补偿机制、规划重建机制等多方面内容,然而当前我国特大城市在社会风险恢复环节并没有完全契合法治发展要求,在其运行机制中存在诸多合法性危机。通过梳理、总结和借鉴美国、日本的特大城市社会风险恢复机制的建构及其法治化之成功经验,可从行政法视角提出健全和优化我国特大城市社会风险恢复机制相关法律制度应当遵循的基本原则、总体思路和具体方案设计。     

审计风险的成因

随着我国市场经济的发展,审计作为重要的经济监督部门发挥着越来越重要的作用,但随之而来的就是审计风险也越来越大。如何防范和控制审计风险成了审计的一项重要工作。     

律师刑事豁免权研究

律师在刑事诉讼中担任辩护人、诉讼代理人 ,为实现司法公正 ,保障人权作出重要贡献 ,同时也承担了巨大的风险。律师刑事豁免权是律师在刑事诉讼过程中维护委托人合法权益和降低律师执业风险的有力保障     

Affect Regulation and the Cycle of Violence Against Women: New Directions for Understanding the Process

The process of the intergenerational transmission of violence is not well understood. A risk and resilience model of criminal violence against women was investigated using secondary data. The sample was composed of adolescent male juvenile delinquents who had been physically abused by their parents, and who were followed up at ages 25 and 31. A series of structural equation models were fit to investigate whether dysregulated affect mediated the effects of attachment and family chaos on the adult perpetration of violence against women. These models support the hypothesis that affect dysregulation may act as a mediator. Results raise new ideas about the mechanisms by which violence may be transmitted across generations.     

A systems analysis of youth in acute and subacute therapeutic residential care

The Arkansas Department of Children and Family Services (DCFS) has reduced the use of therapeutic residential care (e.g., group homes, residential treatment centers) for youth placed in child welfare. Youth in acute or subacute congregate care for 30 or more days without Medicaid now are of particular interest. This is a longer-term psychiatric program, typically 3 to 6 months. The project team conducted a systems analysis to determine the specific characteristics and levels of need for 42 youth so that DCFS can more effectively serve these youth in the least restrictive form of treatment possible.     

我国私人银行业务的法律风险及防范

私人银行业务是与商业银行传统业务并驾齐驱的主要银行业务之一.但由于我国金融立法还处于起步阶段,私人银行业务仍处于萌芽状态,私人银行业务的发展面临着政策模糊、法律真空和监管缺位的巨大风险和安全隐患.在借鉴国外相关经验和法律法规的基础上,加快制定和完善我国私人银行业务的相关法律法规,积极引导并规范私人银行市场发展,是我国私...     

上市公司加大可转债融资的原因分析及风险对策

近几年来可转债在许多上市公司再融资中的融资额已经超过了配股和增发这两种主要的再融资方式。可转债在弱市中容易发行、成本低、融资规模大、发行条件低是上市公司加大可转债融资的原因所在。对可转债融资可能带来的风险应给予充分的考虑。