Voter sincerity and the time-of-voting-decision

This article explores the relationship between vote sincerity and the time at which vote decisions are finalized. It posits that a specific set of competitive circumstances are necessary for insincere voting to occur, and that voters' understanding of these circumstances can be influenced by exposure to information during a campaign. The article introduces a new method of operationalizing a commonly overlooked type of insincere voting: the protest voter. As defined here, protest voters express their political dissatisfaction by supporting an uncompetitive non-traditional party that is not their first preference. Canadian Election Study data reveal that protest voters make up a small, but noteworthy segment of the electorate and that insincere voters tend to make their vote decisions relatively late.     

Campaigns and the prediction of election outcomes: Can historical and campaign-period prediction models be combined?

There are two approaches to predicting election outcomes: (1) a historical approach, which uses past election results alongside macroeconomic and political variables to forecast election results up to a year in advance, and (2) a campaign-oriented approach, which uses current campaign trends to forecast vote shares at the end of the campaign. They are in some way at odds—one approach says the campaign doesn't matter, the other focuses entirely on the campaign. This article considers whether the two approaches might be usefully combined; it considers whether the prediction errors in historical models may be related to trends during the campaign. That possibility is tested here using 17 elections in the US, UK and Canada, combining historical predictions and automated content analyses of campaign-period media content. Results suggest that campaigns do not account for errors in the historical predictions; but there may be other ways in which campaigns matter in conjunction with historical models.     

韩国人对华负面认知与中国对韩公共外交途径

中韩两国关系自建交以来在许多方面取得了飞速发展,但近些年,两国关系由"暖"变"冷",原因是多方面的,其中韩国人对中国形象的负面认知,产生了很大的负面影响。对此,我们不能视而不见或避而不谈,而应积极加强对韩公共外交,促进两国友好关系顺利发展。韩国是中国的重要邻国,中韩两国关系良好发展的意义不仅局限在两国关系上,它对于改善东北亚地区的安全局势也具有不可忽视的作用。本文主要就韩国人对中国形象的负面认知及其对中韩关系所起的负面影响作用以及应对之策,做简要分析和探讨。     

DIFFERENTIAL SUSCEPTIBILITY? IMMIGRANT YOUTH AND PEER INFLUENCE*

There is reason to suspect that lower levels of exposure to criminogenic peer‐based risks help explain why immigrant youth are less involved in crime and violence. However, it also is possible that if and when they do encounter these risks, immigrant youth are more vulnerable to them than are native‐born youth. Drawing from literature on the adaptation experiences of immigrant adolescents, we hypothesize that immigrant youth will be relatively more susceptible to the effects of both 1) exposure to deviant peers and 2) unstructured and unsupervised socializing with peers when compared with their nonimmigrant counterparts. Using a sample of approximately 1,800 adolescents from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods (PHDCN) study, we find support for our first hypothesis but not the second. Specifically, in both cross‐sectional and longitudinal models, we find that exposure to deviant peers has a greater impact on violence among immigrant youth than it does for native‐born youth. Furthermore, this pattern of results is supported with supplemental, sensitivity analysis using the AddHealth data. In contrast, there are no statistically significant differences across immigrant generation status with regard to the effect of informal socializing with peers on violence.     

法官视角中的能动司法

能动司法是司法创造力的体现。在美国,这种司法能动的突出表现形式是司法审查权,通过多年的案例发展,美国已经形成了较为完备的司法审查体制。在英国,至今法院尚无对立法的审查权。但在英美法系国家,由于有判例法传统,法官的司法能动性相对较大,在案件审理中,区分相似案件事实和不断发展法律规则是法官司法技术的重要组成部分。英美法系的司法能动对我国司法实践具有积极的借鉴意义。在我国,司法能动在审判领域的主要表现形式是最高法院司法解释、个案法官法律论证,其主线是政策考量与法律考量,也可称之为社会效果考量与法律效果考量。     

Gang Membership,Drug Selling,and Violence in Neighborhood Context

A prominent perspective in the gang literature suggests that gang member involvement in drug selling does not necessarily increase violent behavior. In addition it is unclear from previous research whether neighborhood disadvantage strengthens that relationship. We address these issues by testing hypotheses regarding the confluence of neighborhood disadvantage, gang membership, drug selling, and violent behavior. A three‐level hierarchical model is estimated from the first five waves of the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, matched with block‐group characteristics from the 2000 U.S. Census. Results indicate that (1) gang members who sell drugs are significantly more violent than gang members that don’t sell drugs and drug sellers that don’t belong to gangs; (2) drug sellers that don’t belong to gangs and gang members who don’t sell drugs engage in comparable levels of violence; and (3) an increase in neighborhood disadvantaged intensifies the effect of gang membership on violence, especially among gang members that sell drugs.     

The Neglect of Elder Neglect as a White-Collar Crime: Distinguishing Patient Neglect from Physical Abuse and the Criminal Justice System’s Response

While research on elder maltreatment has increased dramatically over the past three decades, few studies have considered elder neglect. Even fewer studies have addressed cases of patient neglect committed while older adults are receiving long-term care. In this study, we analyzed 252 cases of elder maltreatment to increase understanding about elder patient neglect and the way that patient neglect can be distinguished from patient abuse. The criminal justice system’s response to these crimes is also addressed. The results show that offenders in elder patient abuse and patient neglect cases receive similar sentences. However, the dynamics surrounding the offenses are different in important ways. Patient neglect cases are more likely than patient abuse cases to (1) involve multiple victims, (2) be committed in groups, (3) be white-collar crimes rather than occupational crimes, and (4) result in more serious consequences for victims. Implications for policy, theory, and research are provided.     

In Times of Crisis: The Conditions of Pocketbook Effects

When and how will personal financial (aka “pocketbook”) concerns drive citizens’ political decisions? Scholars remain puzzled by the mismatch between the expectation that pocketbook voting should occur and the reality that, according to most findings, it usually does not. Using original survey data collected immediately after Iceland’s second “Icesave” referendum (2011), I first report the results of an embedded experiment that successfully evokes greater pocketbook concern. Next, I analyze the determinants of retrospective pocketbook evaluations, showing that priming effects are conditioned by political sophistication such that high sophisticates are among the most likely to report negative economic assessments. I then turn to the consequences of these egocentric views for government approval. Mediation analysis confirms a significant indirect effect, suggesting that subjective pocketbook evaluations exert a strong influence on political attitudes that has been hidden in prior work. Results illuminate the contextual, cognitive, and causal circumstances under which pocketbook effects transpire and suggest new ways in which self-interest might matter for attitudes toward international political economy issues.     

Tian Jiaxin: Bring China to the World with Music

正FROM a little girl who cried at her first concert to a performer on the international stage,Tian Jiaxin,by realizing her musical dream,is making the world hear China.On April 28,the"French Spirit"concert was held at the National Theatre for the Performing Arts to commemorate the 50th anniversary of Sino-French diplomatic relations.The French maestro Philippe Entremont and his Chinese student Tian Jiaxin brought the concert to its peak with their free-flowing performance of Mozart’s piano concerto.Although they had collaborated before,it was the fi rst time Tian performed with her French