Modeling Selection Bias in Studies of Sanctions Efficacy

Sanctions rarely work but they continue to be used frequently by policymakers. I argue that previous studies of sanctions ignore the problem of strategic censoring by focusing only on cases of observed sanctions. In this paper, I develop a unified model of sanction imposition and success and test it using a simultaneous equation censored probit model. This selection-corrected sanction model finds that the process by which sanctions are imposed is linked to the process by which some succeed while others fail, and that the unmeasured factors that lead to sanction imposition are negatively related to their success.     

Where in the world is South Africa? Lecture by Ambassador Tony Leon 14 February 2013

Most of the current constructs which theoretically underpin foreign policy for this country are either overblown or incoherent; they do not appropriately define or advance or prioritise South Africa's national interests abroad, nor do they acknowledge the tensions embedded in the clash between normative policies and realpolitik. Drawing from ‘real time’ experiences in international diplomacy, this lecture explores some of the dilemmas that South Africa, as a middle-range power in the world, confronts in its international engagements. The cost-effectiveness of South Africa's global projection is also examined, and some practical reforms to achieve better results in the current age of austerity suggested.     

Innocent of the crime under investigation: suspects’ counter-interrogation strategies and statement-evidence inconsistency in strategic vs. non-strategic interviews

ABSTRACT

The study examines the counter-interrogation strategies applied by mock suspects (N?=?94), who are innocent of a mock crime under investigation but who were present at the scene, for different reasons, at around the time the crime occurred. Half were present at the crime scene to carry out a lawful act, the other half to carry out an unlawful act. Furthermore, this study examines the effect of the Strategic Use of Evidence (SUE) technique as a strategic interviewing technique (vs. a non-strategic technique), on suspects’ statement-evidence inconsistencies. Participants were randomly assigned to the two interview conditions (strategic vs. non-strategic) and were interviewed as suspects of a crime, which none of them had committed. The results show that the most commonly used counter-interrogation strategy in both groups was to be honest. However, 26.1% of the innocent suspects, performing an unlawful act, reported the strategy to be deceptive. In addition, the statements of suspects executing an unlawful act were significantly more inconsistent with the evidence in the strategic than the non-strategic interview condition. The increased statement-evidence inconsistency rates potentially put these suspects at risk of being assessed as guilty of a crime they did not commit.     

行政处罚权的相对集中:现实的范围及追问

集中行使行政处罚权的范围,用了"相对集中"表述。如何理解"相对"?要明确和确定哪些行政处罚权需要集中,就必须进一步完善行政处罚权集中的范围和调整配置制度。目前,各地对行政处罚权进行了调整和配置,在城市管理领域和文化等领域集中了有关行政处罚权,并形成了不同的模式。行政处罚权的集中范围和调整配置制度基本符合实际需要,有助于提高行政执法的质量和水平,深化行政管理体制改革。当然,这一制度尚存在一些问题。     

政府信息公开与保密

政府信息公开制度是现代民主政治发展之必然,而信息保密则是一国维持管理秩序之必需,也是其维护特殊法律关系之必需。政府信息公开制度突破传统保密观念,既有利于维护国家安全,同时又存在泄密隐患,对国家安全构成潜在威胁。目前,调整信息公开和保密关系中存在的法律障碍有:调整保密关系的法律发达,调整信息公开的法律缺乏;已有的法律规定观念守旧,客观上阻碍了政府信息公开制度的推广;政府信息公开的现有法律,其法律位阶较低,不足以解决信息公开与保密中存在的矛盾;现有政府信息公开的范围较小,界定公开与保密的标准不统一、不合理。因此,及时调整法律,正确处理信息公开与保密之间的关系,就要坚持“以公开为原则,不公开为例外”的信息公开法原则;科学确定公开与例外的界限;建立内部协调一致的法律体系;建立司法审查制度,以司法权来制衡行政权;追究故意不公开信息的法律责任。     

Adolescent Siblings’ Looking Glass Self-Orientations: Patterns of Liabilities and Associations with Parenting

A looking glass self-orientation refers to the tendency to incorporate the opinions of social partners to form a self-representation and approve of one’s self. These orientations were assessed for two adolescent siblings in 438 families with surveys accessed on-line. Younger (M = 11.6 years, SD = 1.8) and older (M = 14.3, SD = 2.1) siblings and their mothers (82.7% European-American) participated. The siblings shared similar orientations in relying on either classmates or the other sibling for approval, prior to self approval. Relying on classmate approval was significantly associated with adjustment and academic performance as reported by both the self and mothers. Siblings were also identified as sources of approval with implications for adjustment, but the magnitude of the associations with adjustment were lower. Comparisons of the older and younger siblings revealed that both groups were equally as liable to poor outcomes when reflecting the opinions of classmates or siblings. The results of SEM analyses implicate parenting characterized as coercive, rejecting, and chaotic in association with the tendency to rely on others for approval. A mediating role for looking glass self-orientations in associations between parenting and depressive symptoms, anxiety or academic performance was also found.

习近平关于公共安全的重要论述:一个总体框架

公共安全是习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的重要内容。本文基于战略管理的有关思想,构建一个“环境-使命-运作”的分析框架,从战略判断、战略定位、战略部署三个维度,来研究公共安全思想的基本框架与核心观点。对重要文献的文本分析发现,习近平关于公共安全的重要论述对公共安全形势的战略判断,主要体现在严峻性、多样性、关联性三个方面;对公共安全作用的战略定位,主要体现在事关人民群众切身利益、事关经济社会发展大局、事关中国梦宏伟目标三个方面;对公共安全工作的战略部署,主要体现在全类型应对、全过程管理、全社会参与、全手段运用四个方面;作为战略统领的总体国家安全观,是习近平关于公共安全重要论述的战略指引和理论引领。     

《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》签署及中国的策略选择

近年来,受世界经济前景不确定性、全球贸易体系重构和区域经济一体化加速发展影响,《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)各方尽快达成谈判意愿明显提升,而印度临阵退出又使得RCEP能否如期签署充满变数。RCEP与《全面与进步的跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(CPTPP)部分国家重合,涵盖范围、生效时间、国际地位、开放程度、合作难度和融合发展等不同,将面临一些新的问题和挑战。在应对RCEP策略选择上,中国应未雨绸缪、积极争取主动,包括争取RCEP尽快签署生效,坚定维护东盟主导地位,继续发挥大国稳定器作用,有序推进RCEP优化升级,推动RCEP与CPTPP互动发展,密切关注日本合作动向,重视与CPTPP、“印太战略”联动效应,加快打造区域融合发展合作典范。     

对制定《出入境边防检查法》的几点思考

当前,《出入境边防检查条例》已不能完全适应依法治国方略和新形势下边检工作要求,亟待上台一部《出入境边防检查法》。《边检法》应全面规范边防检查工作,并对边防检查机关的法律地位、执法权限、担负的任务及体制等问题以法律的形式予以明确规定。