前提目标途径——增进中日战略互信的若干思考

中日战略互信具有复杂、渐进和反复等特点,因此首先必须明确建立互信关系的前提,那就是在战略意图上要尊重现有国际体制,在战略能力上要不断强化合作,在战略途径上要共同倡导和平原则;其次是必须设定中日战略互信的合理目标,双方要把避免战争作为最基本目标,把建立低度信任作为现实目标,而把发展中度战略互信作为未来推动东亚一体化进程中的理想目标;最后是必须选择中日战略互信的有效途径,主要是在单边模式上注重强调自我约束,在双边模式上注重形成共同规范,在多边模式上注重推进机制建设,其中又要以多边模式作为当前战略互信建设的主渠道。     

美国调整对华战略及其影响

小布什入主白宫后,美国新政府便开始调整对华战略,将克林顿时期的对华“接触　＋遏制”战略,改为“遏制＋接触”。其原因是小布什政府看到了对华战略的侧重点发生了　重大变化,其动机是企图达到谋取建立世界政治、军事、经济和文化霸权的目的。美国调　整对华战略,必将对我国的国家安全造成新的威胁,对此,我们应予以正确的评估。     

破解“城管困境”的战略性人力资源管理视角——基于对北京城市管理综合执法队伍的调查研究

近些年围绕城管执法队伍产生了很多争论,一方面,地方政府对这支队伍有很强的依赖,另一方面,这支队伍受到了很多批评甚至攻击。本文在对北京市城管执法队伍进行深入调查的基础上发现,问题的根源在于国家对这支队伍缺乏明确的战略定位,这导致赋予他们的职责与这支队伍的数量和质量之间出现较为严重的不匹配,再加上没有及时采取措施对这支队伍的结构和管理机制进行优化,结果使城管执法工作的职责不断扩大,与这支队伍的人力资源状况之间的矛盾日益尖锐。相应地,必须从战略和人力资源管理两个层面来寻找解决问题的方案,即借助战略性人力资源管理思想来化解城管困境。     

Strategic voting,information, and ethnicity in emerging democracies: Evidence from Kenya

This paper explores the conditions under which voters in emerging democracies support non-viable candidates. We argue that cognitive biases and the geographic clustering of minor-party supporters in ethno-political enclaves lead to misperceptions about the electoral prospects of minor-party candidates, weakening strategic defections both among co-ethnic and non-co-ethnic supporters. We explore these arguments using original survey data from Kenya's 2007 presidential election, a contest that featured a minor-party candidate, Kalonzo Musyoka, who stood little chance of electoral victory. Despite this, results show that most of his supporters chose to vote for the candidate, failing to perceive that he was not a viable contender. The findings suggest that theories of political behavior in multi-ethnic settings can be enriched by drawing upon insights from the political psychology literature on belief formation.     

Modeling Selection Bias in Studies of Sanctions Efficacy

Sanctions rarely work but they continue to be used frequently by policymakers. I argue that previous studies of sanctions ignore the problem of strategic censoring by focusing only on cases of observed sanctions. In this paper, I develop a unified model of sanction imposition and success and test it using a simultaneous equation censored probit model. This selection-corrected sanction model finds that the process by which sanctions are imposed is linked to the process by which some succeed while others fail, and that the unmeasured factors that lead to sanction imposition are negatively related to their success.     

政府信息公开与保密

政府信息公开制度是现代民主政治发展之必然,而信息保密则是一国维持管理秩序之必需,也是其维护特殊法律关系之必需。政府信息公开制度突破传统保密观念,既有利于维护国家安全,同时又存在泄密隐患,对国家安全构成潜在威胁。目前,调整信息公开和保密关系中存在的法律障碍有:调整保密关系的法律发达,调整信息公开的法律缺乏;已有的法律规定观念守旧,客观上阻碍了政府信息公开制度的推广;政府信息公开的现有法律,其法律位阶较低,不足以解决信息公开与保密中存在的矛盾;现有政府信息公开的范围较小,界定公开与保密的标准不统一、不合理。因此,及时调整法律,正确处理信息公开与保密之间的关系,就要坚持“以公开为原则,不公开为例外”的信息公开法原则;科学确定公开与例外的界限;建立内部协调一致的法律体系;建立司法审查制度,以司法权来制衡行政权;追究故意不公开信息的法律责任。     

The EU–South Africa Strategic Partnership: Waning affection,persisting economic interests

ABSTRACT

Ten years after the coming into force of the EU–South Africa Strategic Partnership, this article takes stock of this partnership. Our aim, within this special issue, is to assess the EU’s perspective on its strategic partnership with South Africa, and in particular to look at economic and development cooperation within the partnership and to what extent European expectations of closer engagement have been met. Our analysis shows that economic interests have remained central to bilateral relations and the strategic partnership, even if some potential for economic engagement has remained unexploited. At the same time, the relationship has been quite tense in recent years, as bilateral ‘affection’ at the political level has waned. The implications for the partnership are weighed.     

Where in the world is South Africa? Lecture by Ambassador Tony Leon 14 February 2013

Most of the current constructs which theoretically underpin foreign policy for this country are either overblown or incoherent; they do not appropriately define or advance or prioritise South Africa's national interests abroad, nor do they acknowledge the tensions embedded in the clash between normative policies and realpolitik. Drawing from ‘real time’ experiences in international diplomacy, this lecture explores some of the dilemmas that South Africa, as a middle-range power in the world, confronts in its international engagements. The cost-effectiveness of South Africa's global projection is also examined, and some practical reforms to achieve better results in the current age of austerity suggested.     

企业文化构建初探——以济南炼油厂为例

济南炼油厂文化基因清晰,有很好的文化积淀。具有清晰的近期目标。原有的文化基础不断丰富并发生变化,组织的文化基因与个性特征基本一致。今后,济南炼油厂应把企业文化建设作为企业发展的一项战略任务来抓,弘扬企业愿景和价值观,树立优质高效的企业形象。     

关于发展天津现代物流的战略思考

发展现代物流将促进天津产业结构的调整,提高经济的总体运行质量.政府应实施积极措施,制定相应政策,创造物流业健康发展的良好市场环境.