非洲交通发展现状及前景

自20世纪80年代以来,虽然以轨道交通、飞机、汽船、汽车、管道运输为基础的新式现代交通体系进一步打破了非洲各地区之间的地理分割,但是现代非洲交通仍不能适应非洲各国发展经济建设的需要。非洲交通发展存在不少制约因素,如国家贫困,政府用于基础设施建设资金不足;自然环境恶劣,交通建设与维护难度巨大;专业人才缺乏,管理不善;交通方式落后,大陆内部一体水平较低。鉴此,非洲国家宜借鉴其他国家经验,结合本国国情,拓宽筹资渠道,改革管理机制,促进交通运输事业的进一步发展。     

More than wishful thinking: Causes and consequences of voters’ electoral expectations about parties and coalitions

Accurate expectations about the outcome of elections play a central role in psychological and economic theories of voting. In the paper, three questions about voters’ expectations are investigated. First, we identify and test several factors that influence the overall accuracy or quality of voters’ expectations. Second, the phenomenon of “wishful thinking” is tested and confirmed for expectations about the electoral performance of individual parties and coalitions. Finally, two mechanisms how expectations might influence voting behavior are identified and tested. Based on surveys from Austria and Germany, the results suggest that voters not only rely on expectations to avoid casting “wasted” votes for parties without electoral chances, but that they are able to engage in fairly sophisticated strategic coalition voting.     

The second-order election model revisited: An experimental test of vote choices in European Parliament elections

This paper examines the micro-foundations of the second-order elections model of European Parliament (EP) elections. We extend the existing literature in several ways. First, we propose an individual-level model of voting behaviour in second-order elections. Second, we present the first study using experimental methods to test the predictions of the second-order model, allowing us to test the individual-level propositions about vote choice in a controlled environment. Importantly, we also examine the conditioning effect of information on the ‘second-order’ nature of voting behaviour in EP elections. Our findings show that while voters base their EP vote choices primarily on domestic preferences, those who are given additional information about the European integration dimension are also more likely to vote on this basis.     

从体制改革到机制调整:“大部门体制”深度推进的应然逻辑

"大部门体制"旨在解决职能交叉、政出多门等长期困扰中国行政体制改革的政府顽疾。但是,在改革实践的过程中,"大部门体制"的深入推进时常面临着部际冲突内部化等问题的阻碍。造成这些问题的根本原因在于,"大部门体制"过分关注"体制改革",导致"机制调整"的滞后。在政府施政实践中,执行机制缺位、部际协调机制缺失、监督机制不健全等都是"机制调整"滞后的主要表现。因此,需要将"机制调整"作为"大部门体制"改革的战略重点,促进部际整合由"职能整合"转向"流程再造",推动政务公开,加强社会监督,积极建构部门间的"伙伴关系"。     

韩中合作强化方案考察

2012年是韩中建交20周年。在克服漫长的冷战时期积累起来的敌对和不信任的同时,过去20年来韩中关系取得了耀眼的、飞速的发展。在正式层面上,两国经过善邻友好关系—合作伙伴关系—全面合作伙伴关系,最终建立了"战略合作伙伴关系"。在21世纪的新环境中,韩国和中国也可能比过去20年的发展更进一步,发展成追求战略上的共同目标和利益的战略共进关系。但伴随着这种正面的因素,也同时存在着美国和中国、中国和韩国的战略利益彼此冲突的危险。特别是在像美中势力转移时代这样不确定、不稳定因素繁多的时期,反而要在明确核心利益的差异是什么、承认彼此间差异的基础上更进一步,发展实现相互合作和双方利益的"和而不同"的外交。     

国际金融危机影响下的俄罗斯对华战略调整

国际金融危机对俄罗斯产生了深远影响。危机在某种程度上改变了俄罗斯所处的战略环境,恶化了俄罗斯的经济状况,使俄罗斯调整经济发展战略更具紧迫性,同时也影响了与中国的双边贸易。这些影响又间接作用于俄罗斯的对华战略,主要表现为:俄罗斯对华借重、合作领域有了新的方向,对华战略中更加突出经济因素的作用,调整对华经济战略,力图改变单纯依赖能源出口贸易结构,进而稳步提高双边贸易额,减少与中国的贸易逆差。在今后,随着国际政治、经济形势以及俄罗斯本国经济发展情况的变化,俄罗斯对华战略也将发生进一步的调整。     

The strategic value of new university technology and its impact on exclusivity of licensing transactions: An empirical study

Commercialization of new university technology within the new product development process is an important tool by which established firms can expand their innovative capabilities. The strategic importance of the university technology to the firm, however, can vary considerably. An exclusivity agreement is a useful tool to protect the firm’s investment and help ensure that value is appropriated through the commercialization process. An empirical study of 66 technology transfer projects in the information and communications technology industry reveals that licensing transactions are usually secured by some form of exclusivity agreements when the product innovation enabled by the new university technology is new-to-the-firm or new-to-the-market and the firm’s perception of the strategic value of the new technologies is high.      

Partisan turnout bias and district magnitude

This article examines how the partisan turnout bias (i.e. turnout rate differences across districts that are linked to the partisan vote shares in those districts) changes over time in PR districted electoral systems. We argue that the bias after the founding election is the unintended consequence of parties and voters' strategic behaviors when they respond to the incentives provided by the electoral system. By looking at the case of Portugal, one of the countries with the largest variation in district magnitude, we find that the increasing asymmetry in turnout rates across districts makes the bias more severe as time goes by.     

务实王道睦邻外交——21世纪中国和平崛起的民族传统战略文化资源

长期以来,对中国传统战略文化的划分只有以孟子为代表的王道与霸道两种,而事实上以荀子为代表的务实王道、纯粹王道及霸道三分法才更为合理,其中由荀子开创并以汉、唐、清三朝为代表的务实王道才是中国传统战略文化的精华与主流.新中国三代领导集体的外交思想则是对中国传统战略文化的批判性继承与创造性发展.展望21世纪的国际关系与中国外交,中国传统战略文化中的务实王道仍具有顽强的生命力与辉煌的发展前景,对其加以与时俱进的改造,仍可服务于中国的崛起与复兴.     

战略环境评价的发展趋势及在中国实施的管理程序和技术路线研究

本文总结、概述了战略环境影响评价(SEA)在国际上的推广及应用情况,包括SEA的成型和具体化两个发展阶段、SEA的三种类型及选例、SEA的执行标准的讨论以及SEA在国外的发展趋势等。在此基础上,讨论了在中国开展战略环境评价所涉及的各个部门的职责,提出了在中国开展战略环境评价的管理程序和技术路线。