The British Election Study 2015 general election constituency forecast

This paper develops a votes-to-seats nowcast model using individual level data from the British Election Study Internet panel to model the flow of the vote between 2010 and 2015. Transition matrices for each constituency are calculated using multinomial models of flows between 2010 origins and 2015 destinations. Respondents are reweighted to the polling average for England, Scotland and Wales and are further reweighted using predicted turnout to downweight respondents who are less likely to vote. The forecast performed poorly in 2015 because of polling errors and because the “Ashcroft” constituency vote intention question overestimated the Liberal Democrat incumbency effect. Without these errors, the forecast would have come much closer to the result but would still have underestimated the Conservatives' seats.     

From the Executive Board to the Classroom. What Debt Relief Means for Education in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

ABSTRACT

This analysis re-assesses the IMF’s decision to grant debt relief to the DRC in 2010 based on the country’s poverty reduction and growth performance: would the IMF come to the same conclusion given the current knowledge available about the impact of the debt relief process on public governance and service delivery? First, it shows that, whereas the direct resource effect of this aid modality was minimal, the indirect effect was more significant: the conditionalities attached to the process helped to stabilize the economy and increased the overall budget of the Congolese state. This increased resource availability also sustainably percolated to the education sector. Second, however, the impact on social development was minimal: school enrolment increased but was hardly accompanied by extra budget per pupil, whereas more complicated challenges like disparities in access or quality of schooling were left untouched. The government’s strategy was also partly short-circuited by the electoral process.     

北京市东城区卫生局卫生监督所2011-2013年行政处罚基本情况分析及对策研究

本文分析了北京市东城区卫生局卫生监督所2011-2013年行政处罚基本情况,旨在探索监督职能划转后如何健全卫生行政处罚配套措施,提高卫生监督效能,为推动卫生行政处罚工作提供参考性建议。方法：运用卫生统计学方法分别对2011-2013年已结案的一般程序处罚案件的处罚数量、罚没款金额以及案由进行统计,分析近3年东城区卫生局卫生监督所行政处罚的基本特点、存在的困难和问题。结果：2011-2013年东城区卫生局卫生监督所一般程序行政处罚数量逐年增加,但不同专业发展不均衡,处罚侧重点相对单一,部分专业化较强的执法力量相对薄弱,以及成文法的滞后性弊端等均是亟需破解的难题。结论：可通过强化法制宣传教育、健全卫生行政处罚长效监管机制、有效规范和控制自由裁量权在行政处罚中的运用等配套措施确保卫生行政处罚合法、合理、公平、公正。     

理念与经验:中国与北美社区建设之比较

中国与北美虽然对社区的定义存在基本融通之处,但隐在社区概念背后的思维方式存在重大差别,导致社区建设的实践理念也出现明显差异。从国内关注的社区体制、社区服务、社区组织、社区文化等4个方面比较,两地社区建设在经验上已经各有短长,并不能轻易做优劣之分,这与两地的传统、文化、体制以及发展阶段都有关系。但从现代化的普遍规律看,北美社区贯穿的社会化特色与中国社区贯穿的行政化特色相比,的确可启发我们在社区建设的理念上增强社会化关怀、行动上推崇人性化服务、建制上提升居民的组织化能力、模式上探索特色性框架。中国特色的方向在于整合行政化的遗产与社会化的趋向,而其前提是向社会赋权并且有效地加以保障。     

冷战后东北亚地区安全问题研究综述

冷战后,随着两极格局的解体,东北亚地区多种矛盾和问题复杂交织,构成了中国地缘安全环境上非常重要而又相对脆弱的一个环节。学界对于东北亚地区的安全问题从多个角度进行了比较深入的研究,对现有的研究情况作一梳理,以期对促进该问题的研究能够有所裨益。     

Sponsored study abroad and civic engagement in Kyrgyzstan

ABSTRACT

The article explores whether study abroad programmes sponsored by multilateral and bilateral development organizations and private philanthropic foundations promote civic engagement of their alumni upon their return to their home country. The article focuses on the case of Kyrgyzstan, which has had a number of international study abroad scholarship programmes since its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. The research was exploratory and utilized in-depth interviews for collecting data.

In agreement with the literature, the research found that the alumni of scholarship programmes had experienced changes in their values and worldviews as a result of being exposed to a new environment but also of having a formalized study programme that enabled them to critically reflect on their own country and culture and to expand their knowledge in the new context. These changes prompted most participants in the research to be civically engaged in the social and political issues of their society in their home country through voluntarism. Importantly, the article expands the literature by arguing that this civic engagement has positive implications for the development of civil society and democratic values and practices in Kyrgyzstan.     

Major Power Diplomacy with Chinese Characteristics Is Moving forward Steadily

The year of 2016 witnessed the balance of internal and external situations,calm and steady actions and proper planning in major power diplomacy with Chinese characteristics.Those were reflected in the success of the G20 summit,the vigorous promotion of the "One Belt,One Road" (B&R) Initiative and the active promotion of international cooperation on development,which acquired positive response and general agreement from the international community and made special contributions to building a more just and reasonable international order.Those were also reflected in the active management of major power relations and sound responses to the changing situation in the surrounding area to create good external environment for domestic development.In addition,further expansion and defending of overseas interests set higher standards for Chinese diplomacy.Having been pushed by the era to the forefront,China is performing its responsibility as a major power in a peculiar way and will certainly make greater contributions to world peace and development.     

城市经济学应用研究热点综述:以典型城市为例

我国城市经济学的理论和应用研究开始于20世纪80年代,目前呈现出迅猛发展的势头。以天津作为样本城市,利用CNKI检索工具,重点梳理相关文献,可以发现,城市经济学在应用研究方面关注了城市经济社会发展中的重大现实问题,保持了该学科研究的时效性、集中性等特点,因而取得了一定的成果。今后,应充分发挥城市经济学实践推动理论发展的学科特性,积极借鉴和吸收理论进展中的新鲜成果,及时破解城市发展的实际问题,为城市发展提供有益的政策制定依据和未来发展方向指导。     

市场化改革下中国城市垃圾处理行业绩效研究

本文利用2001—2011年中国27个省、自治区和直辖市的面板数据,构建固定效应模型,考察了我国城市垃圾处理行业市场化改革背景下垃圾处理收费额、维护城建垃圾处理支出、垃圾处理固定资产投资等因素对城市垃圾处理行业绩效的影响,同时亦检验了市容环卫专用车辆设备数和无害化垃圾处理场（厂）个数等因素对城市垃圾处理行业绩效的影响,结论如下：（1）征收城市生活垃圾处理费增强了垃圾清运能力,提高了垃圾无害化处理能力,促进了城市垃圾处理行业绩效的提升;（2）维护城建垃圾处理支出本身对垃圾清运能力的增强没有显著促进作用,但加入市场化改革因素后,维护城建垃圾处理支出对清运量的增加效应比市场化改革前更显著,并随着改革的推进而不断增强;（3）垃圾处理固定资产投资促进了垃圾无害化处理能力的提升,加入市场化改革因素后,垃圾处理固定资产投资对垃圾无害化处理能力的提升效果比市场化改革前更明显,并随着改革的深化而逐步增强;（4）市容环卫专用车辆设备的增多能显著提高垃圾清运能力和无害化处理能力,无害化处理场（厂）的增加可以显著提高垃圾无害化处理能力。     

在大湄公河次区域合作(GMS)框架下积极利用亚洲开发银行项目支持的对策研究

亚洲开发银行作为亚洲和太平洋地区的区域性多边金融机构,对消除亚太地区贫困,推动发展中成员的繁荣发展起到重要作用。如何在大湄公河次区域合作(GMS)框架下继续借助亚行的支持,加速广西发展,值得深入探讨。