中美贸易摩擦对就业的影响及对策

在"美国优先"的指导思想下,美国特朗普政府对中国意图进行贸易战,借此振兴美国制造业,为底层劳动者创造更多就业岗位。贸易战争背后其实是就业战争。对中国来说,由于对美贸易依赖性较大,因而有可能对国内就业产生比较明显的就业冲击。极端情况下,将会使我国就业岗位减少350-580万个。因此,通过谈判协商是解决贸易争端的最佳策略。而进一步扩大实施"一带一路"发展战略,减少对少数国家贸易依赖,以及加快推进创新驱动战略,将有助于减轻贸易战对我国就业的影响。     

Constitutional values and civil servant recruitment: The principles for filling revenue service positions in Poland

The functioning of public administration should be consistent with the general interest, common to all citizens, and independent from the particularized interests of changing political forces. A condition for the proper functioning of administration is the selection of appropriate personnel to perform the duties defined by the state. According to the premises of this paper, the recruitment of personnel based upon objective criteria is of fundamental importance for the effective realization of the administration's mission. This article analyzes the weaknesses of personnel policy in fiscal administration in Poland after 1989 against the background of the broader process of creating a Polish civil service. The study aims at determining the extent to which the actual relations between politics and administration reflect legal regulations. The article focuses on personnel policy with regard to senior positions in fiscal administration, whose occupants have leverage over decision-making processes and human resources policy in various agencies. It turns out that after every parliamentary election there is major turnover in the personnel occupying senior positions in the fiscal administration offices, that is, the persons associated with the previous governing team are replaced with individuals enjoying the confidence of those who have just come to power. In light of these findings one can infer that, contrary to the constitutional principles guiding the functioning of the government administration in Poland, its politicians have deliberately designed legal regulations in such a manner as to enable them to assume control over fiscal administration.     

Legal change in post-communist states: Contradictions and explanations. Introduction

Reformers had high hopes that the end of communism in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union would lead to significant improvements in legal institutions and the role of law in public administration. However, the cumulative experience of 25 years of legal change since communism has been mixed, marked by achievements and failures, advances and moves backward. This special issue of the journal Communist and Post-Communist Studies documents the nuances of this process and starts the process of explaining them. This introductory essay draws on the findings of the articles in this issue to explore the impact of three potential explanatory factors: regime type, international influences, and legal (or political) culture. Regime type matters, but allows for considerable variation within authoritarian and democratic states alike and the possibility of reversals. The influence of international organizations (like the European Union) is also far from predictable, especially once states have joined the organization. Finally, legal cultures and political traditions play a large role in explaining developments in individual countries, but there is nothing inevitable about their impact.     

Kawabata's views of language and the postwar construction of a literary genealogy

Abstract

This paper shows the ways in which, in the immediate post-war period (1945–1951), Kawabata Yasunari (1899–1972) reflected on his earlier, pre-war literary career and re-envisioned his postwar literary trajectory by constructing a new genealogy of the modern novel in Japan, in relationship to the intricate issues of the literary styles of the modern novel, ‘national language’ (kokugo), and the literary tradition. By examining his Shin bunshō tokuhon (New Guide to Literary Language, 1950), which presents Kawabata's past and present views of literary language, I will argue that Kawabata's changing views of language and literary style must be understood in the context of contemporary debates over national language policy and language reform movements. I will show the manner by which Kawabata formulated his views of language in dialogue with his two rival writers: Yokomitsu Riichi (1898–1947) in the prewar period and Tanizaki Junichirō (1886–1965) in the postwar period. As we shall see, the death of his close literary colleague Yokomitsu in 1947 and Tanizaki's unflagging literary exploration during and following the war prompted Kawabata to position himself in a genealogy of modern Japanese literary writers as well as in relationship to the linguistic and literary tradition of Japan.     

Evaluating the Impacts of an Enhanced Family Self-Sufficiency Program

We conduct an impact analysis of the Denver, Colorado, Housing Authority’s Home Ownership Program (HOP) employing quasi experimental methodologies (i.e., nearest-neighbor matching, inverse probability weighting with regression adjustment) that permit causal inferences of program impacts with substantial confidence. HOP is an unusual, enhanced variant of the Family Self-Sufficiency program that incentivizes and assists participants’ purchase of a home. We analyze whether, compared with the control group, HOP participants exhibited significantly greater earnings growth during the program, enhanced economic security, and rates of home buying. We find that participants with a high intensity of treatment showed significant improvement in all outcomes. Results are robust to model specification and insensitive to omitted variable bias typically found in the social sciences. We conclude that a well-conceived and well-executed public housing authority program aimed at building the financial, human and social assets of low-income households receiving housing assistance can yield substantial benefits to participants.     

Evaluating the Concept of Location Affordability: Recent Data on the Relationship Between Transportation,Housing, and Urban Form

The concept of location affordability holds that housing affordability should be augmented to include transportation cost as a related and substantial household cost burden. The recent United States foreclosure crisis of 2006–2008 offers an opportunity to evaluate location affordability as a concept for policy and practice by investigating the relationship between transportation cost burdens and negative housing outcomes. This article contributes to the growing literature on location affordability and the recent crisis with an analysis of default and foreclosure data for 70 metropolitan areas. The analysis includes transportation and housing cost burdens and demographic data, as well as multidimensional measures of urban form. High rates of automobility are associated with increased foreclosure. The urban form variables yield mixed results, suggesting the relationship between urban sprawl and affordability is complex. However, across a range of specifications, high levels of development intensity are associated with increased foreclosure rates. The results have implications for both the housing and transportation sectors and lend support for the notion of location affordability.     

Policy Advocacy in Transitioning Regimes: Comparative Lessons from the Case of Harbour Protection in Hong Kong

Current research on policy advocacy relies exclusively on established regimes where instability is largely contained. Using the harbour protection advocacy in Hong Kong as an exploratory case, the article documents how conservationists exploited the unique opportunities arising from the transfer of sovereignty to advance heritage protection policy. Three new strategic choices in policy advocacy are identified. First, policy advocates strategically switched between issue frames instead of becoming strongly identified with any issue frame. Second, they avoided prolonged involvement by pursuing modest, programme-level adjustments. Third, they circumvented the restrictions on scope and focus by creating new venues outside of the policy subsystem.     

When are Students Ready for Research Methods? A Curriculum Mapping Argument for the Political Science Major

For many political science programs, research methods courses are a fundamental component of the recommended undergraduate curriculum. However, instructors and students often see these courses as the most challenging. This study explores when it is most appropriate for political science majors to enroll and pass a research methods course. The hypothesis posits that the number of prior introductory-level political science courses can be a strong precursor to research methods success, even for those who are upper-class students and majors. This hypothesis is tested by analyzing data from six sections of an undergraduate research course offered at a midsized public university. The results demonstrate that students are most likely to succeed in their research methods course if they are majors with at least five previous political sciences courses completed. Recommendations for course prerequisites and specific curriculum mapping are offered in light of these findings.     

Filters of influence: The help-seeking process of African American single mothers living in poverty seeking mental health services for their children

There are a disproportionate number of African American children living in poverty who are in need of mental health services. African American children who live in poverty tend to underutilize mental health treatment due to the barriers their caregivers face; however, far less research has been conducted on the percentage of children who do access mental health treatment and the experiences of their caregivers in maneuvering through the barriers in their environments. This grounded theory study systematically generated a help-seeking theory that was constructed through the experiences of single African American mothers living in poverty who accessed mental health treatment for their children.     

Intersections of gender and water: comparative approaches to everyday gendered negotiations of water access in underserved areas of Accra,Ghana and Cape Town,South Africa

A large and growing body of literature suggests that women and men often have differentiated relationships to water access, uses, knowledges, governance, and experiences. From a feminist political ecology perspective, these relationships can be mediated by gendered labour practices (within the household, at the community level, or within the workplace), socio-cultural expectations (e.g. related to notions of masculinity and femininity), as well as intersectional differences (e.g. race, income, and so forth). While these relationships are complex, multiple, and vary by context, it is frequently argued that due to responsibility for domestic provision or other pathways, women may be particularly affected if water quality or access is compromised. This paper reports on a statistical evaluation of a 478 household survey conducted in underserved areas of Accra, Ghana and Cape Town, South Africa in early 2012. Interrogating our survey results in the light of the ideas of gender differentiated access, uses, knowledges, governance, and experiences of water, we open up considerations related to the context of each of our study sites, and also invite possible revisions and new directions for these debates. In particular, we are interested in the instances where differences among male and female respondents were less pronounced than expected. Highlighting these unexpected results we find it helpful to draw attention to methods – in particular we argue that a binary male–female approach is not that meaningful for the analysis, and instead, gender analysis requires some attention to intersectional differences (e.g. homeownership, employment, or age). We also make the case for the importance of combining qualitative and quantitative work to understand these relationships, as well as opening up what might be learned by more adequately exploring the resonances and tensions between these approaches.