The estimation of the time of death by non-protein nitrogen (NPN) in cadaveric materials. Report 3: Multiple regression analysis of NPN values in human cadaveric materials

The non-protein nitrogen (NPN) values in brain, lung, liver, and kidney in 79 autopsy cases were determined according to the Micro-Kjeldahl Nessler method. Multiple regression analysis of the data was performed with every possible combination of the time of death and the NPN values in the tissues.The brain NPN showed the best correlation with the postmortem time (r = 0.673), whereas the other correlations were less satisfactory (lung r = 0.422, liver r = 0.397, and kidney r = 0.379, respectively). However, multiple combinations of each tissue NPN value proved to give better correlation coefficients and smaller errors of the estimated time of death.The practical significance of the tissue NPN as a postmortem biochemical indicator of the time of death and the multiple regression analysis of such indicators were extensively discussed in this report.     

四川省超法定时限办案基本情况、原因和对策的调查分析

四川省超法定时限办案的情况较为严重,其原因主要包括主、客观两方面因素。减少此类情况发生的措施有:提高办案人员的程序意识;强化监督,落实办案责任制;加强政法队伍建设;完善相关的法律法规。     

西藏昌都地区近现代经济发展缓慢原因试析

就作者个人视野所见,学界尚无论及近现代时期西藏昌都地区经济发展缓慢的论文。在近代史料的基础上,本文分析了西藏昌都地区近现代经济发展史,认为落后的社会制度是近现代昌都地区经济发展的缓慢的根本原因。而税收制度的不健全、各级官员的贪污腐化与滥发货币所造成的通货膨胀;外国经济势力的入侵与战争连绵,成为昌都地区经济发展缓慢的外部原因。     

Adolescents’ time use: Effects on substance use,delinquency and sexual activity

Using an integration of social control theory and the routine activity perspective, adolescent time use was examined for effects on problem behaviors. We examined a wide variety of time use categories, including homework, extracurricular activities, sports time, alone time, paid work, housework, television watching, as well as indices of family time and peer time, for their effects on heavy alcohol use, cigarette smoking, illicit drug use, delinquency and sexual activity. The study employed a representative household sample of adolescents (n=606) and took into account important sociodemographic factors – gender, age, race (Black and White), and socioeconomic status. The most important predictors of adolescent problem behaviors were family time and peer time. Family time serves as a protective factor against all five problem behaviors while peer time is a highly significant risk factor for all five problem behaviors. Ph.D. in Sociology from the University at Buffalo. She is a Senior Research Scientist at the Research Institute on Addictions, University at Buffalo, 1021 Main Street, Buffalo, The State University of New York 14203. Her research interests include family influences on the development of adolescent substance use, gambling, and other problem behaviors M.A. in Mathematics from the University of Rochester. He is Project Manager/Data Analyst at the Research Institute on Addictions, University at Buffalo, 1021 Main Street, The State University of New York 14203. His current research interests include advanced data analysis techniques for studies of alcohol, other substance use and gambling behaviors among youth and adults. Ph.D. in Psychology from the University at Buffalo. He is a Senior Research Scientist at the Research Institute on Addictions, University at Buffalo, 1021 Main Street, The State University of New York 14203. His research interests include the substance abuse/crime nexus, the epidemiology of substance abuse, and the etiology and epidemiology of pathological gambling. Ph.D. in Sociology from Yale University. He is Professor and Chair in the Department of Sociology, University at Buffalo, 430 Park Hall, Buffalo, The State University of New York, 14260. His research interests include interpersonal relations in adolescent, family, friendship, and work groups. M.S. in Epidemiology from the University at Buffalo. She is a retired Research Scientist from the Research Institute on Addictions, University at Buffalo, 1021 Main Street, The State University of New York 14203. Her research interests include alcohol and other substance use among adolescents and families     

论江泽民领导理论的时代特色

江泽民领导理论着眼于发展与创新 ,坚持理论与实践的统一 ,领导与群众的统一 ,世界观与方法论的统一 ,贯穿了“三个代表”重要思想 ,继承和发展了马克思主义领导理论 ,形成系统、完整、科学的现代领导理论。     

侨力资源与近代西南民族地区开发——以近代广西为例

海外华侨是中国近代化建设中的一支重要力量。本文以近代广西为视域,从经济开发、文教事业进步,以及生活生产方式和思想观念嬗变等方面考察了侨力资源在近代西南民族地区开发中的作用。     

民国时期法定继承人的范围及其演变

民国时期的民事立法,既传承传统,又除旧立新。其继承法中的法定继承人的范围及其演变,最为明显地影响传统的家族法。探究中西法文化冲突背景下该领域法律的演变发展很有价值。     

Applying Time-series Cross Correlation Analysis to Examine the Nexus between Firearms and Homicide in Hong Kong

This paper applied time series analysis to examine the nexus between firearm robberies and homicide in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HK). Recent years have seen a reduction in firearm related offences in HK compared to Britain. For instance, only three cases of firearm robbery in 2004 in HK (0.1% of all robbery; 2,237 incidents) involved genuine firearms, compared to 4,117 firearm robbery incidents (4% of all robbery) in Britain in the same year. This paper established a cross-correlation coefficient of 0.50 at lag 0 for the annual rate of two serious crimes, genuine firearm robbery and homicide, after identifying an ARMA(1,0) model from each time series (1972–2002). The results suggest that the prevalence of firearm robbery is moderately associated with the prevalence of homicide in HK.

Dynamic latent trait models: An application to Latin American banking crises

Dynamic latent trait models combine information from a variety of manifest variables, possibly measured on different scales, that are presumed to be indicators of an unobserved latent phenomenon, while allowing appropriate consideration of the longitudinal character of time series. I use a Bayesian dynamic latent trait model of banking sector financial accounts measured at the country/quarter level to build an indicator of banking system robustness in Latin America. As a methodological innovation, I extend dynamic latent trait models to take into account country-specific effects of bank regulatory regimes through hierarchical modeling of factor loadings. I suggest how these models can be applied to other types of phenomena—for example to combine existing political regime indicators to build a more informative measure of democracy.     

On filtering longitudinal public opinion data: Issues in identification and representation of true change

The Kalman filter is a popular tool in engineering and economics. It is becoming popular in political science, touted for its abilities to reduce measurement error and produce more precise estimates of true public opinion. Its application to survey measures of public opinion varies in important ways compared to the traditionally understood Kalman filter. It makes a priori assumptions about the variance of the sampling error that would not usually be made and does so in a way that violates an important property of the Kalman filter. Consequently, the behavior of the filter modified for public opinion measures is less well-known. Through simulations we assess whether and to what extent filtering: reliably detects the characteristics of time series; does so across series with different rates of autoregressive decay; and does so when the variance of the sampling error is unknown. We also examine whether the filtered data represents the level of true underlying variance and the extent to which filtering assists or hinders our ability to detect exogenous shocks. We learn a numbers of things. Most importantly, taking into account sampling error variance when filtering data can work well, though its performance does vary. First, filtering works best identifying time series characteristics when assuming a stationary process, even if the underlying process contains a unit root. Second, the performance of filtering drops off when we incorrectly specify the variance of the sampling error, and especially when we overestimate it. Third, when estimating exogenous shocks it is better to make no a priori assumptions regarding a measurement error variance unless we are absolutely certain we know what it is. In fact, applying the filter without specifying the measurement error variance is more often than not the best choice.